Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?

Many fear China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will impoverish its farmers via greater import competition in its agricultural markets. We explore that possibility bearing in mind that, even if producer prices of some (land-intensive) farm products fall, prices of other (labor-intensive) farm and nonfarm products could rise. New estimates, from the global, economy-wide numerical simulation model known as Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), of the likely changes in agricultural and other product prices as a result of WTO accession, are drawn on to examine empirically the real income implications of China's WTO accession. The results suggest farm–nonfarm income inequality may well rise within China but rural–urban income inequality need not. The article concludes with some policy suggestions for alleviating any pockets of farm household poverty that may emerge as a result of WTO accession.     

Monetary union and the Maastricht inflation criterion: The accession countries*

We model an accession country facing a Maastricht‐type inflation criterion that specifies an inflation ceiling. In addition to deciding whether or not to satisfy this criterion, the country must decide how much costly economic reform to undertake. If the country puts enough weight on the future that it can credibly meet the inflation criterion no matter what the ceiling is, then the inflation criterion benefits the country but lowers reform. If the country puts less weight on the future, then a criterion with a properly chosen inflation ceiling can increase reform. We derive the inflation ceilings that maximize the country's welfare and its reform.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment into European transition economies

Using a panel dataset of bilateral flows of foreign direct investment (FDI), we study the determinants of FDI from Western countries, mainly in the European Union (EU), to Central and Eastern European ones. We find the most important influences to be unit labor costs, gravity factors, market size, and proximity. Interestingly, host country risk proves not to be a significant determinant. Our empirical work also indicates that announcements about EU Accession proposals have an impact on FDI for the future member countries. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 775–787.     

中资银行迎接外资银行全面竞争的策略研究

随着中国银行业市场不断扩大对外资银行的开放程度,在华外资银行已在市场份额、客户营销、业务经营及人才吸引等方面对中资银行的经营形成挑战。中资银行只有加快改革进程,进一步提升自身的竞争力,才能在2006年底中国银行业全面开放后从容应对外资银行的激烈竞争。本文结合当前中国银行业的改制过程,提出了中资银行的应对策略,即通过与外资银行的业务及股权合作来弥补自身不足,通过调整经营结构实现经营战略的转型,通过完善公司治理培育自身的核心竞争力,通过解决经营中的实际问题提高市场应变力,通过落实“以人为本”的理念切实提升人力资源价值。     

外资银行进入对发展中国家银行信贷可得性的影响研究

如何引导外资银行增加东道国的信贷可得性,尤其是中小企业的信贷可得性,是目前理论和政策界争论的焦点问题之一。本文通过构建一个理论模型,分析了外资银行进入和国内信贷供给的关系,从市场均衡结果、社会福利、成本效率等几个角度对外资银行进入发展中的东道国的影响进行综合分析。模型结果表明,外资银行的进入并不必然增加一国的总体信贷水平、也并不必然提高东道国银行业的成本效率和整体社会福利,甚至在某些特定条件下,结果可能适得其反。     

Croatia and the SET-Plan： Intents and Results

Energy efficiency and environment protection are the international concern. European Union, under its energy and climate policy, adopted goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 20%, and increasing the proportion of European energy which comes from renewable sources up to 20% by 2020. Until 2007, the development of these technologies in the European Union （EU） was undertaken in a dispersed, fragmented, sometimes even competing way. The Strategic Energy Technology Plan （SET-Plan） is the pillar of the EU＇s energy and climate policy aiming at development of affordable, clean, efficient, and low emission energy technologies through coordinated research. Croatian accession to the EU required meeting the main challenges as the other member states, involving increase in energy efficiency and renewable energy used as some of the basic components of sustainable development. Funding projects in the area of ecology and energy preservation, odds and prospects for public bodies and Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency Fund （FZOEU） involvement in financial support of the projects, additional sources of funding etc., are some of the numerous questions this paper is aiming to address in order to assess the Croatian absorption capacities for the SET-Plan as one of the most important EU strategies.     

Integration of FSU/economies in transition into the World Trade Organization1

Membership of the World Trade Organization is a goal for many transition economies. This paper discusses what is involved in WTO membership, the information required and the commitments imposed upon members. After reviewing the accession process in general, the topic is illustrated by the recent example of Bulgaira and Mongolia.     

Measuring the welfare costs of EU accessionThe case of VAT reform in Bulgaria

We analyze possible reforms to the Bulgarian VAT system, evaluating revenue-neutral reallocations of goods to tax bands within the existing 2-rate structure. We investigate the sensitivity of the results to behavioural response and imperfect tax recovery. We find only a weak case for the use of non-uniform VAT rate structures for redistributional purposes. Selective VAT exemptions can produce approximate welfare gains equivalent to a general price fall of much less than 1 per cent for plausible specifications of social welfare.
JEL classification: D31, J31, P24.     

论中国“入世”后的特定产品过渡性保障机制

特定产品过渡性保障机制是中国入世议定书中最具争议的内容之一。中国入世议定书第16条规定,如果中国的进口扰乱了其他WTO成员的国内市场,该WTO成员可以针对急速增加的中国进口采取保障措施。该机制允许其他WTO成员在一定条件下只针对来源于中国的产品进口采取保障措施,不同于WTO《保障措施协议》所要求的在最惠国原则基础之上不对产品的来源进行选择性实施保障措施的规定。本文的目的就在于探讨中国入世议定书第16条特定产品过渡性保障机制与WTO《保障措施协议》的关系,尝试回答WTO《保障措施协议》能否适用于特定产品过渡性保障机制这一问题。     

加入WTO十年的中国农产品贸易与竞争力问题研究

中国已成为世界农产品贸易大国。在农产品加入WTO十年中,由于成功地运用了两个市场,两种资源的互补性发展格局,带来了农产品贸易额不断增长的可喜局面,但另一方面,由于对外依存度越来越大,农产品国际竞争力整体不强等原因,中国农产品的未来发展仍面临种种问题,因而,制定相应政策目标和政策优化显得极为重要。