Co-movement in Stock Prices in Emerging Economies: The Case of the Caricom Region

The Grand Anse Declaration of 1989 recognised the need for financial integration within the emerging economies that comprise the CARICOM region, as a way of furthering the wider process of economic integration and, indeed, economic development in that region. Using co-movement as a measure of financial integration, this paper investigates the co-movement in stock prices among the Barbados, the Jamaica and the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchanges, the three major exchanges within the CARICOM region. It also examines how integrated these exchanges are with the New York Stock Exchange. The GARCH-Copula methodology and, to a lesser extent, estimated correlation coefficients, are used to attain this objective. There appears to be co-movement in stock prices and returns within the CARICOM stock markets and significant dependence structures between the returns of the three CARICOM stock markets. However, there is considerably less evidence of integration between the CARICOM markets and the New York Stock Exchange.     

Capital market integration in ASEAN: A non-stationary panel data analysis

Motivated by the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at the end of 2015, we examine saving-investment relationship in various subgroups of ASEAN to assess their capital market integration. The results from second generation panel unit-root and cointegration tests that account for cross-sectional dependence as well as estimates of long-run saving-retention rate provide some evidence of market integration in ASEAN. The analysis of short-run dynamics suggests that capital mobility in ASEAN during 1980–2014 appears similar to that in OECD countries during 1970–1999. More importantly, across different panel estimators and subgroups of membership, there is considerable heterogeneity among the member countries. The saving-investment association is very weak, thereby implying very high capital mobility, in more developed members such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei; the association is very strong, implying very low capital mobility, for much less developed members such as Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The results call for renewed effort to develop capital markets in less developed nations and integrate them with the rest of the membership in ASEAN. In this paper, we also address several major shortcomings of the original Feldstein-Horioka framework.     

A multivariate distance nonlinear causality test based on partial distance correlation: a machine learning application to energy futures

This paper proposes a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test (MDNC) using the partial distance correlation in a time series framework. Partial distance correlation as an extension of the Brownian distance correlation calculates the distance correlation between random vectors X and Y controlling for a random vector Z. Our test can detect nonlinear lagged relationships between time series, and when integrated with machine learning methods it can improve the forecasting power. We apply our method as a feature selection procedure and combine it with the support vector machine and random forests algorithms to study the forecast of the main energy financial time series (oil, coal, and natural gas futures). It shows substantial improvement in forecasting the fuel energy time series in comparison to the classical Granger causality method in time series.     

The saving–investment correlation puzzle is still a puzzle

A number of simulation studies claim to have solved the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle by demonstrating that a high time-series correlation between saving and investment naturally arises from business cycle shocks. This paper uses panel data of saving and investment controlled for business cycle shocks to empirically test the significance of cyclical shocks — productivity, fiscal and the terms of trade shocks — in explaining a high saving–investment correlation. The estimation results reveal that conventional aggregate shocks only partially explain the high saving–investment correlation. Moreover, country differences in the size of the GNP and the non-traded sector do not significantly affect the saving–investment correlation. The saving–investment correlation puzzle remains a puzzle after all.     

辐射迁移方程--一个K-辛空间上的正则方程

说明了均匀、轴对称、无源介质是一个K-辛空间上的Hamilton系统，Hamilton函数是系统的守恒量；数值计算辐射强度角分布的合理途径是将辐射迁移方程离散成以离散Hamilton函数为守恒量的有限维K-辛空间上的正则方程，并采用保离散Hamilton函数守恒的K-辛算法数值求解．     

我国股票市场的混沌探析

运用混沌理论对我国股票市场进行了实证研究 ,结果显示我国股票市场是一个低自由度的混沌系统 ,具有自相似的非线性结构 ,并且这种非线性结构可以用 GARCH( 1 ,1 )模型来拟合。     

中国经济增长中的信贷结构与效率实证分析

本文应用典型相关分析方法对中国产业增长与信贷结构关系进行了实证研究。信贷结构与产业增长具有较强的典型相关性,信贷的政府配给成功地支持了中国的工业化进程。与此同时,改革开放以来中国形成的产业结构层面的信贷双重配给,一定程度上导致了信贷结构与产业结构的扭曲。     

旋转机械振动信号分析

综述了现代信号分析处理理论、方法如时域分析(包括时域参数识别、相关分析以及统计分析等)、频域分析(包括傅立叶变换、功率谱分解等),并结合转子实验台实测的振动数据,研究了它们在旋转机械振动信号分析处理中的应用,给出了具体的应用实例。     

按劳分配与收入公平分配

按劳分配与收入公平分配存在正相关,主要表现在按劳分配存在前提和分配主体转换的公平性、分配依据和利益结构及其主体地位的合理性五个方面.按劳分配的实践与收入公平分配存在负相关,主要表现在由于理解上的偏差、应用中的偏差、实施对象客观条件不同而导致收入分配中事实上的不公平.为了强化按劳分配与收入公平分配的正相关、弱化按劳分配的实践与收入公平分配的负相关,必须采取相应对策.     

探索性空间数据分析模型研究

探索性空间数据分析是空间经济计量学的一个重要领域。解释与空间位置相关的空间依赖、空间关联或空间自相关现象。目前在国内外的应用也越来越广泛。本文就探索性空间数据分析模型进行了综合介绍，并分析了其在未来的应用前景。