金融科技对传统银行行为的影响——基于互联网理财的视角

本文使用2011-2015年263家银行的年报数据和北京大学数字金融研究中心基于蚂蚁金服用户数据构建的地市级数字金融普惠指数,探究金融科技的发展对银行行为的影响。研究发现金融科技的发展实质上推动了一种变相的利率市场化,改变了银行的负债端结构,使得银行负债端越来越依赖于同业拆借等批发性资金。负债端结构的改变导致银行资产端风险承担偏好上升,但是借贷利率和净息差都有所下降。即银行选择了更高风险的资产来弥补负债端成本上升所造成的损失,但并没有将成本向下游企业转移。此外,本文还发现规模越大的银行受到金融科技的冲击越小。     

State‐Dependent Forward Guidance and the Problem of Inconsistent Announcements

Forward guidance can be provided as an unconditional promise, i.e. commitment to a specific low policy rate. Alternatively, the promise may include an escape clause, i.e. a condition defining the state of the economy under which the central bank would not keep such a low rate and, instead, it would revert to setting policy under discretion. The escape clause can be expressed as a threshold in terms of a specific variable. The present paper shows that, when such a threshold is expressed in terms of an endogenous variable (e.g. output, inflation), there are cases where it becomes impossible for the central bank to act in a way that is consistent with its promise. Consistency imposes limits on the policy rate that can be set since reverting immediately to the optimal discretionary rate can be incompatible with exceeding the threshold.     

New development: China renews reform of central–local fiscal relations and provides for basic national public services

China’s reform on central–local fiscal reform has slowed down in recent years. The appointment of a new finance minister experienced in local government affairs is expected to renew the reform affirmed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) congress in late 2017. China has unprecedentedly identified a comprehensive list of 81 national basic public services as entitlements. Eighteen of them are subject to national and local standards, and co-financed by central and local governments. A new cost-sharing method for 10 of these services classifies sub-national jurisdictions into five tiers, in which the central government’s share declines from 80% to 10%. These measures, effective in 2019, aim at creating a ‘harmonious and moderately prosperous society’.     

Ownership discrimination and private firms financing in China

This study examines the financing/funding of private firms in China. Our results show that private firms are significantly less funded through formal financing channels such as bank loans than state-owned firms, and hence have to resort to alternative financing such as trade credit. Consistent with the theoretical expectation and literature, there is a substitution effect between trade credit and bank loans for private firms, but this effect is much weaker compared to that of state-owned firms. Moreover, while the univariate comparisons indicate that private firms obtain more notes payable than state-owned firms, the multivariate regression analyses show that the relation between bank loan and notes payable is positive and indifferent between private and state-owned firms.     

Advancing heritage tourism in the central Karoo: The South African War Battlefields Route

ABSTRACT

Tourism and tourism development have the potential to make a positive impact on a region’s economic development and sustainability. In this sense, the central Karoo has a great deal to offer heritage tourists. As there are numerous battlefield sites associated with the South African War (1899–1902) (previously the Anglo-Boer War) the central Karoo offers a unique development opportunity to demarcate a designated battlefield route dedicated to the war. This study investigated the potential for the development of the proposed route by involving potential stakeholders (specifically product owners and government officials) on the route. The study was qualitative, and 33 interviews were conducted. Thematic content analysis was used to analyse the data. The main findings indicate a need for the development of the route and the establishment of a South African War Battlefields Route Destination Marketing Organisation (DMO).     

政策不确定性、财政扩张与区域商业银行风险——基于中国地方官员变更和银行业的证据

文章利用2007-2017年我国93家区域商业银行的面板数据，并结合省级宏观经济数据和地方官员变更数据，实证考察了中国地方官员变更引起的经济政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的重要影响。研究结果表明：（1）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性增大了区域商业银行风险；（2）地方官员变更引起的政策不确定性，通过提高银行的资产收益率降低了商业银行风险；而不确定性时期的财政扩张，通过降低银行资产收益率增大了商业银行风险；并且财政扩张的负面影响大于政策不确定性的正面影响；（3）各省的市委书记发生职位更替引起的政策不确定性对区域商业银行风险的影响更大。文章研究为新时代背景下的金融供给侧结构性改革、政府宏观经济政策的制定以及财政体制与金融体制之间的联系提供参考。     

Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection: Implications for Discount Window Stigma

I study the implications for central bank discount window stigma of a workhorse model of adverse selection in financial markets. In the model, firms (banks) need to borrow to finance a productive project. There is limited liability and firms have private information about their ability to repay their debts, which gives rise to the possibility of adverse selection. The central bank can ameliorate the impact of adverse selection by lending to firms. Discount window borrowing is observable and it may be taken as a signal of firms' credit worthiness. Under some conditions, firms borrowing from the discount window may pay higher interest rates to borrow in the market, a phenomenon often associated with the presence of stigma. I discuss these and other outcomes in detail and what they suggest about the relevance of stigma as an empirical phenomenon.     

如何提高我国金融业的国际竞争力

针对经济全球化和我国金融业的对外开放，文章从金融创新、金融风险、金融体制改革等方面论述了我国金融业面对挑战应采取的措施。     

浅议如何充分发挥银行内部审计建设性职能

目前，中国建设银行已建立了总行垂直管理的内部审计体制，内部审计的地位得到了进一步的巩固和加强，管理层对内部审计也提出了更高的要求。本文就如何发挥审计的建设性职能，最大程度地做好审计增值服务，促进银行价值和运作效率的提升，实现审计职能从查错防弊向防护决策和建设性方面转变做初步探讨。     

Debtor-in-possession financing

Several recent papers have documented the benefits of debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing in the restructuring of firms in Chapter 11. However, the view on benefits is not unanimous and some legal scholars have raised doubts about DIP financing's effects on debt-holders and the possibility of expropriative wealth transfers. In this paper we address this issue by analyzing both stock and bond price data for a comprehensive sample of DIP loans and find significant positive abnormal stock and bond returns at the announcement of DIP loans. Also, we do not find evidence of wealth transfers from junior to senior debt-holders. Further, we examine the DIP loan process in detail and we document important institutional features of DIP loans such as maturity, covenants, fees and interest charges. We find evidence of intense monitoring using covenants. We also find higher fees and charges associated with DIP loans. We argue that overall the results are consistent with the information processing role of financial intermediaries.