基于GM(1,1)模型的造纸业上市公司财务研究——以冠豪高新为例

财务风险是企业调整发展战略、提升管理水平的重要参考指标之一。财务风险预测模型的建立能够预测企业在中短期内的财务风险,为企业敲响警钟。以造纸业上市公司冠豪高新为例,选取近五年财务杠杆系数为风险指标,建立GM(1,1)风险预测模型,结果显示该公司短期内财务风险呈下降趋势,调查发现这主要得益于产品成本的降低以及营销策略的改变。     

Personal Income Tax Reform in China in 2018 and Its Impact on Income Distribution

In the context of personal income tax (PIT) reform in China in 2018, this paper examines some of the major issues of concern regarding the reform and income distribution. Using the China Personal Income Tax Micro‐simulation model, the paper compares the differences between the 2011 and 2018 PIT systems, and finds that residents relying on different income sources may face a large degree of real tax rate change. Once the tax system is altered to PIT 2018, the coverage of PIT for wage earners will decrease from 46.9 to 23.4 percent, the income redistributive effect will drop from 1.95 to 1.22 percent and the PIT's role in fiscal revenue will also be negatively affected. Nevertheless, if individual income continues to grow, the share of PIT in fiscal revenue is expected to return to the 2018 level in 2022, but its income redistribution function is difficult to recover in the short term. The paper finds that the effect of PIT on income distribution depends on the tax structure. Gradual transition to an “entirely comprehensive” tax system when conditions are appropriate will achieve better income redistribution results at a lower average tax rate.     

Coping with coopetition—Facing dilemmas in cooperation for sustainable development: The case of the Dutch smart grid industry

This paper is amongst the first to examine coopetition strategy for sustainable development at the network level. Companies who want to successfully implement complex innovative technologies that support sustainable development need to collaborate with other actors of the innovation ecosystem, including their competitors, so that they can develop standards, interoperable products, pool knowledge, and resources and bundle forces to compete against other technologies. Collaboration with competitors brings benefits, but also many risks. We investigated how firms cope with these risks when establishing an innovation ecosystem to implement a new technology in society. We conducted research in the Dutch smart grids sector and explored how these firms minimize inherent risks of coopetition. We found that system‐building actors in the Dutch smart grid field not only minimize inherent risks, but from the start of their collaboration they implement so‐called enablers to prevent these risks upfront.     

Policy induced increases in private healthcare financing provide short-term relief of total healthcare expenditure growth: Evidence from OECD countries

Healthcare reforms have long been advocated as a cure to the increasing healthcare expenditures in advanced economies. Nevertheless, it has not been established whether a market solution via private financing, rather than public financing, curb aggregate healthcare expenditures. To our knowledge, this paper is the first that quantifies the impact of reforms that significantly increases (decreases) the private (public) share of healthcare financing on total healthcare expenditures relative to income in 20 OECD countries. Our reform measure is based on structural break testing of the private share of total expenditures, and verification using evidence of policy reforms. To quantify the effect of these reforms we apply Propensity Score Matching and Inverse Probability Weighted regression analysis. Over a 5-year evaluation period the reforms lead to an accumulated cost saving 0.45 percentage points of GDP. The yearly effects of the reforms are largest in the first years in the post-reform period and decreases in size as a function of time since the reform. Our findings suggest that the investigated healthcare reforms have a relatively short-lived effect on aggregate health spending relative to GDP. The findings are robust to various sensitivity tests.     

Application of collective knowledge diffusion in a social network environment

ABSTRACT

We present a group dynamics model that shows knowledge integration as a process occurring over time. As each individual in the group contact others, his own knowledge changes, and over time the collective knowledge is obtained. This allows modeling knowledge diffusion in a social network and while the models presented in this paper are not competitive in that area, they approach the problem from previously unconsidered direction. We test the behavior of the model in a multi-agent simulation and we test a simple advertisement campaign in a social network. We provide discussion of elements needed for making model more competitive.     

Will China's WTO accession worsen farm household incomes?

Many fear China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) will impoverish its farmers via greater import competition in its agricultural markets. We explore that possibility bearing in mind that, even if producer prices of some (land-intensive) farm products fall, prices of other (labor-intensive) farm and nonfarm products could rise. New estimates, from the global, economy-wide numerical simulation model known as Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), of the likely changes in agricultural and other product prices as a result of WTO accession, are drawn on to examine empirically the real income implications of China's WTO accession. The results suggest farm–nonfarm income inequality may well rise within China but rural–urban income inequality need not. The article concludes with some policy suggestions for alleviating any pockets of farm household poverty that may emerge as a result of WTO accession.     

State-owned enterprises going public The case of China

Public listing is a key reform measure for large state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) in China. We find evidence that public listing lowers state ownership significantly, lessens firms’ reliance on debt finance, and allows firms to increase capital expenditure, at least temporarily. We also find that ownership structure affects post‐listing performance. However, we find no statistical evidence of a positive effect of public listing on firms’ profitability. We suggest alternative interpretations of the last finding.     

基础力学课程教学改革的研究与实践

该文在深入分析基础力学各相关课程相互关系的基础上，认为基础力学课程的改革，应该优化组合备相关课程内容，减少重复内容，形成新的教学体系；应该在教学手段上注意现代化教学手段与传统教学手段的结合，激发学生的学习兴趣，提高课堂的效率；也强调实验环节的重要性，要注重学生动手能力的培养。     

深化乡镇综合改革难点研究

乡镇机构人员膨胀是当前农民负担过重的主要原因之一。而20多年来乡镇机构减而复胀且日益严重,成为改革的难点。乡镇职能错位、各类机构关系不顺、社会改革不配套,还有行政机构中客观存在的“帕金森定律”,是乡镇机构改革难点形成的深层原因。深化乡镇综合改革的远期目标是实现乡镇自治,而近期目标则是以转变职能为核心,调整政府管理体制;实现乡镇机构的功能整合;同时可以实行政府职能“外包”;还要加强机构编制的法治管理。