Volatility spillovers between WTI and Brent spot crude oil prices: an analysis of granger causality in variance patterns over time

There has been an increase in price volatility in oil prices during and since the global financial crisis (GFC). This study investigates the Granger causality patterns in volatility spillovers between West Texas International (WTI) and Brent crude oil spot prices using daily data. We use Hafner and Herwartz’s (2006) test and employ a rolling sample approach to investigate the changes in the dynamics of volatility spillovers between WTI and Brent oil prices over time. Volatility spillovers from Brent to WTI prices are found to be more pronounced at the beginning of the analysis period, around the GFC, and more recently in 2020. Between 2015 and 2019, the direction of volatility spillovers runs unidirectionally from WTI to Brent oil prices. In 2020, however, a Granger-causal feedback relation between the volatility of WTI and Brent crude oil prices is again detected. This is due to the uncertainty surrounding how the COVID-19 pandemic will evolve and how long the economies and financial markets will be affected. In this uncertain environment, commodities markets participants could be reacting to prices and volatility signals on both WTI and Brent, leading to the detection of a feedback relation.     

Covariance breakdowns and connectedness of crude oil futures markets with non-synchronous data

ABSTRACT

This article identifies the breakdowns in the covariance of three benchmark crude oil futures markets (WTI, Brent and Dubai) and investigates the changes of market connectedness across the breakdown periods. As the crude oil futures are traded in different regions, this article eliminates the non-synchronous trading data by employing the Vector Moving Average structure and the Bayesian data augmentation approach, which keeps the integrity of original data without changing its properties. The results show that there are significant breaks in the covariance structure of crude oil futures markets. The breakdown periods are consistent with the periods when the market volatilities are at high level and the returns are volatile. The changes of market connectedness are independent of the covariance states, which supports the globalization hypothesis for the crude oil market. The results also suggest that there is more information flow out of the WTI than to the WTI during the sample period, particularly during the breakdown periods in 2008–2009.     

工业体系和民营企业兴起——基于252家中国最大民营制造业企业的经验研究

主流经济学家把改革开放后民营企业的大规模兴起，主要归因为市场经济条件下发挥企业家精神和遵循比较优势的必然结果。但是这无法解释为什么民营企业在兴起之初就广泛和快速地进入到各个工业，尤其是技术和资本密集型工业。基于中国工业史和252家中国最大民营制造业企业创业发展史的历史证据，文章找回"工业体系"这一被主流所忽略的重大历史现象和学术概念，从而首次提出一种理解中国民营企业发展独特性的结构性解释。文章发现：从计划经济时期继承而来的门类齐全和独立完整的工业体系，是解释民营企业创业和发展独特性的关键变量；已有的由国有企业和科研院所组成的工业体系，从市场机会、技术能力和组织资源等方面塑造了民营企业的创业选择和发展路径。所以，中国民营企业的快速发展不是仅凭自由市场就会自动出现的普遍现象，而是在市场条件下充分利用工业体系提供的技术和市场条件才得以出现的特殊现象。     

广东本地服装品牌的市场培育

本地原创品牌的发展塑造需要坚持,也需要本地市场的支持。品牌经营者必须充分了解市场需求,有针对性地进行市场培育,同时结合自身条件进行品牌营销,才能在市场上取胜。文章基于服装品牌消费者层次分析,提出以差异性的品牌推广方式来培育忠诚顾客的若干策略,从而提升原创品牌的市场竞争力。     

Addressing the growth failure of the oil economies: The role of financial development

The oil exporting countries have experienced a relatively continuous fall in GDP per capita over the last 30 years. This is in spite of benefiting from a more than average of the rest of the world investment rate. The findings of this paper, report a lower level of financial development for the oil economies when compared with the rest of the world. We will show in this paper that the higher rate of investment of the oil economies can be explained mainly by the oil revenues and surprisingly, financial development has a net dampening effect on investment for these economies. The paper also shows that the weakness of financial institutions, contributes to the poor performance of economic growth of the oil economies and the weakness of financial institutions might be associated with the dominant role of government in total investment and the weakness of private sector.     

Demand for broad money and expenditure components in Japan: an empirical study

The main objective of the present study is to examine empirically the long-run relation of broad money demand and its determinants in Japan. In contrast with previous study, the present study considers various components of final expenditure demand as determinants that are final consumption goods, expenditure on investment goods and exports. Using quarterly data over the period 1973Q1–2000Q2, the results of the bounds test [J. Appl. Econ. 16 (2001) 289] indicate a stable long-run relationship between demand of real M2 and its determinants. The empirical results also highlight that different domestic demand components yields different effects on Japanese broad money demand behavior. The estimated unrestricted error-correction model appears to track the data well and the results have important policy implications.     

2005年国际金融市场回顾与2006年展望

2005年的国际金融市场走势跌宕起伏,股票市场表现不一,债券市场基本上是区间波动走势,外汇市场美元一枝独秀,石油价格冲高回落而黄金的表现也引人注目。决定市场走势的因素是美国经济表现稳健,欧、日经济相形见绌,同时美国利率持续上升。2006年受房地产市场降温的影响,美国经济可能温和放缓,利率很快见顶,将对金融市场产生重大影响,总体而言风险加大。     

针对物流的交通需求管理研究探讨

本文简要介绍了国内外交通需求管理的研究状况,阐述了在物流领域实施交通需求管理的意义和特征,提出了一些针对物流的交通需求管理策略,对我国在物流领域实施交通需求管理有一定的指导意义。     

Boom, bust, and the poor: Poverty dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, 1970–1999

This paper analyzes changes in poverty and inequality in the Middle East and North Africa. It finds that the structural relationship between poverty reduction, income growth and distribution is the same for MENA and other developing economies. Prior to 1985 rapid growth sharply reduced poverty. After 1985, despite very low income growth, a rising share of income accruing to the lowest quintile meant that the average income of the poor rose more rapidly than that of the non-poor. These unusual poverty dynamics were primarily due to international migration. Remittances both increased per capita incomes in labor exporting countries and increased the share of income accruing to the poor.     

我国石油对外贸易流量分析与对策研究

石油是关系国家经济安全的重要战略物资，本文通过对我国石油进出口贸易一些流量指标的分析，发现：（1）石油净进口量过大，进口依存度偏高，并有逐年递增的趋势；（2）原油进口的地区集中度偏高，不利于石油资源供应稳定；（3）国际油价持续高企，对国内经济稳定造成威胁。并据此提出了相关政策建议。