Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

Post-euro EU and US interest rates and foreign exchange rates: Are they in harmony or in disarray?

This paper focuses on: (1) how a select set of financial and economic factors could set the path for interest rates and foreign exchange rates, and (2) whether the resultant realized interest and exchange rates would be in harmony or in disarray. Using post-euro data for the EU and the US, an array of monetary rules is examined. In particular, the paper investigates whether the original and the extended Taylor rules provide an explanation of the dynamics of the EU monetary system since the inception of the euro. Our findings indicate that the EU and the US monetary responses are not the same and that exchange rates play a significant role.     

论反向旅游

旅游目的地选择是旅游需求与旅游供给双方互动的过程，必须从旅游目的地属性与旅游者属性两个方面予以分析。已有的旅游需求模型用来激发或改变消费者旅行行为策略不敏感，不能满意解释旅游流的时空特性。为此提出“反向旅游”概念，并就其内涵、现实意义及产品开发和营销中应注意的问题进行了深入的讨论。反向旅游的表面是追求景观差异的极大化，实质是追求利益极大化，也是一种跨文化旅蝣行为。和一般旅蝣相比，反向旅蝣的求知求奇效益更大。但“反向旅游”广泛而不普遍，有时只停留在表面。可以从时间、空间、文化等多方面开发反向旅游产品，锁定消费群体开展有针对性的营销。     

我国央行控制货币供给能力的分析

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货币中性非中性：理论述评

自17世纪以来，人类关于货币性质问题的争论已有近400年的历史。就认识的演进而言，大概经历了“货币中性论”、“货币非中性论”、“货币中性论”和“货币非中性论”杂然并陈三个阶段。事实上，“货币非中性论”更接近真理，正是“货币非中性论”构成了货币政策有效性的理论前提之一，为中央银行金融宏观调控提供了理论基础。     

关于中国货币政策有效性问题的探讨

开放经济对货币政策运行环境、传导机制、调控手段和目标都产生了重要的影响,使得保持货币政策的有效性变得更加复杂.主要表现为:外部均衡在货币政策中的地位显著提高;利率政策和汇率政策相互影响;货币供给的内生性增强;国际经济渠道在货币政策传导机制中的重要性上升;部分货币政策工具的调节力度有所下降.随着我国对外开放进程的加快,要提高货币政策的有效性,必须加快汇率制度改革,建立市场化的汇率机制;把我国的货币政策中介目标逐渐由货币供给量变为市场利率;加快利率市场化改革;注重利率政策和汇率政策的协调.     

中美贸易差额不断扩大的原因:一个综述

本文对解释中美贸易差额不断扩大的几种原因——人民币定值过低、中国市场不够开放、产业转移、中美两国经济内部发展失衡与不合理的国际货币体系——作了简短的评述,分析了中美贸易差额不断扩大的真正原因,认为中美贸易差额不断扩大虽有其合理性和必然性,但是我国贸易政策和人民币汇率政策仍必须进行改革。     

欧元之父--罗伯特·蒙代尔的经济学贡献

蒙代尔是最优货币区域理论的首创者,他分析了不同汇率体制下财政政策与货币政策的合理配置理论,从货币角度研究国际收支理论及供给学理论,促成了欧元的出台,被尊称为"欧元之父".蒙代尔对中国改革和发展给予了高度关注,并提出许多有益的建议.     

城市房屋拆迁补偿制度的缺陷

以市场经济公平交易的原则为基点,系统分析了我国城市房屋拆迁补偿制度存在的包括补偿方式、补偿标准和相关的法规政策的缺陷及其根源,提出了解决问题的相应对策.