When does economic model type become a decisive factor in health technology appraisals? Learning from the expanding treatment options for relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis

Objectives: Specific economic model types often become de facto standard for health technology appraisal over time. Markov and discrete event simulation (DES) models were compared to investigate the impact of innovative modeling on the cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Fingolimod was compared to dimethyl fumarate (DMF; in highly active [HA] RRMS), alemtuzumab (in HA RRMS) and natalizumab (in rapidly evolving severe RRMS). Comparator DMTs were chosen to reflect different dosing regimens.

Materials and methods: Markov and DES models used have been published previously. Inputs were aligned in all relevant respects, with differences in the modeling of event-triggered attributes, such as relapse-related retreatment, which is inherently difficult with a memoryless Markov approach. Outcomes were compared, with and without different attributes.

Results: All results used list prices. For fingolimod and DMF, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were comparable (Markov: £4206/quality-adjusted life year [QALY] gained versus DES: £3910/QALY gained). Deviations were observed when long-term adverse events (AEs) were incorporated in the DES (Markov: £25,412 saved/QALY lost, versus DES: £34,209 saved/QALY lost, fingolimod versus natalizumab; higher ICERs indicate greater cost-effectiveness). For fingolimod versus alemtuzumab, when relapse-triggered retreatment was included in the DES, large cost differences were observed (difference between incremental cost is £35,410 and QALY is 0.10).

Limitations: UK payer perspective, therefore societal approach was not considered. Resource utilization and utilities for both models were not derived from the subpopulations; as the focus is on model type, input limitations that apply to both models are less relevant.

Conclusions: Whilst no model can fully represent a disease, a DES allows an opportunity to include features excluded in a Markov structure. A DES may be more suitable for modeling in RRMS for health technology assessment purposes given the complexity of some DMTs. This analysis highlights the capabilities of different model structures to model event-triggered attributes.     

Implications of Real-world Adherence on Cost-effectiveness Analysis in Multiple Sclerosis

Abstract

Objectives:

Adherence to medication is essential for optimal outcomes, especially for chronic diseases such as multiple sclerosis (MS). Studies in MS indicate that lower adherence is associated with an increased risk of relapse, hospitalization or emergency room (ER) visits, and higher medical costs. A previous investigation assessed the cost per relapse avoided for patients with MS receiving first-line disease modifying therapies (DMTs); however, the model assumed 100% adherence.

Methods:

Because real-world utilization patterns influence the actual effectiveness of medications, this analysis assessed the impact of real-world adherence from a US commercial payer perspective, using updated costs.

Results:

As was seen in the original study, in this revised model, fingolimod was associated with the lowest cost per relapse avoided ($90,566), followed by SC IFN β-1b (Extavia: $127,024), SC IFN β-1b (Betaseron: $137,492), SC IFN β-1a ($144,016), glatiramer acetate ($160,314), and IM IFN β-1a ($312,629). The model inputs that had the greatest impact on the results were adherence-adjusted relative relapse rate reduction (RRR) of fingolimod, the wholesale acquisition costs of fingolimod, and the average number of relapses in untreated patients with MS.

Limitations:

The estimates of DMT adherence are from a single claims database study of a large national pharmacy benefit manager that only measured adherence, not actual relapses, and the model does not incorporate manufacturer discounts and rebates, which are not publicly available.

Conclusion:

These results suggest that economic analyses of MS therapies should incorporate real-world adherence rates where available, rather than relying exclusively on trial-based efficacy estimates when considering the economic value of treatment alternatives, and that highly efficacious therapies with low adherence may yield real-world efficacy that is substantially lower than that observed in closely monitored clinical trials.     

Outcomes of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor cycling versus switching to a disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug with a new mechanism of action among patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Objectives: To examine treatment patterns, treatment effectiveness, and treatment costs for 1 year after patients with rheumatoid arthritis switched from a tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) (adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, etanercept, golimumab, or infliximab), either cycling to another TNFi (“TNFi cyclers”) or switching to a new mechanism of action (abatacept, tocilizumab, or tofacitinib) (“new MOA switchers”).

Methods: This retrospective cohort study used administrative claims data for a national insurer. Treatment persistence (without switching again, restarting, or discontinuing), treatment effectiveness (defined below), and costs were assessed for the 12-month post-switch period. Patients were “effectively treated” if they satisfied all six criteria for a treatment effectiveness algorithm (high adherence, no dose increase, no new conventional synthetic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drug, no subsequent switch in therapy, no new/increased oral glucocorticoids, and <2 glucocorticoid injections). Multivariable logistic models were used to adjust for baseline factors.

Results: The database included 581 new MOA switchers and 935 TNFi cyclers. New MOA switchers were 39% more likely than TNFi cyclers to persist after the switch (odds ratio [OR]?=?1.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]?=?1.12–1.74; p?=?.003) and 36% less likely to switch therapy again (OR?=?0.64; 95% CI?=?0.51–0.81; p?p?=?.006). New MOA switchers had 16% lower drug costs than TNFi cyclers (cost ratio?=?0.84; 95% CI?=?0.79–0.88; p?p?Limitations: Claims payments may not reflect rebates or other cost offsets. Medical and pharmacy claims do not include clinical end-points or reasons that lead to new MOA switching vs TNFi cycling.

Conclusions: These results support switching to a new MOA after a patient fails treatment with a TNFi, which is consistent with recent guidelines for the pharmacologic management of established rheumatoid arthritis.     

Impact of increasing adherence to disease-modifying therapies on healthcare resource utilization and direct medical and indirect work loss costs for patients with multiple sclerosis

Abstract

Objectives:

To estimate the effect of adherence to disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) among patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) on healthcare resource utilization (HRU) and costs, and model the impact of a 10 percentage point increase in adherence on these outcomes.     

Cost-effectiveness of everolimus plus reduced tacrolimus in de novo liver-recipients in the Italian setting

Introduction: Long-term exposure to calcineurin inhibitor-based immunosuppressant (IS) therapy in liver transplant (LT) recipients is associated with renal complications. In the randomized trial H2304, everolimus?+?reduced-dose tacrolimus (EVR?+?rTAC) demonstrated equivalent efficacy and superior renal function compared to standard-dose tacrolimus.

Methods: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of EVR?+?rTAC vs TAC, in de novo LT patients, a Markov model simulating both liver and kidney function was developed and estimated the long-term outcomes of IS following LT. The analysis used the Italian healthcare payer perspective.

Results: Patients treated with EVR?+?rTAC gained on average 1.92 years and 1.62 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were €35,851 and €42,567 for LY gained and QALY gained, respectively. For the hepatitis-c sub-population, the ICERs decreased to €22,519 and €30,658, respectively.

Conclusion: EVR?+?rTAC improves survival and quality-of-life and is a cost-effective alternative to calcineurin-inhibitor monotherapy for patients requiring LT.     

Peginterferon beta-1a versus other self-injectable disease-modifying therapies in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in Scotland: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Aims: Peginterferon beta-1a 125?mcg administered subcutaneously every 2 weeks, a new disease-modifying therapy (DMT) for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), was approved in January 2015 by the Scottish Medicines Consortium. This study assesses long-term clinical and economic outcomes of peginterferon beta-1a compared with other self-injectable DMTs (interferon beta-1a [22?mcg, 30?mcg, and 44?mcg], interferon beta-1b, and glatiramer acetate 20?mg) in the treatment of RRMS, from the National Health Service and Personal Social Services perspective in Scotland.

Methods: A previously published, validated Markov cohort model was adapted for this analysis. The model estimates changes in patient disability, occurrence of relapses, and other adverse events, and translates them into quality-adjusted life years and costs. Natural history data came from the ADVANCE trial of peginterferon beta-1a, the London Ontario (Canada) database, and a large population-based MS survey in the UK. The comparative efficacy of each DMT vs placebo was obtained from a network meta-analysis. Costs (2015 British Pounds) were obtained from public databases and literature. Clinical and economic outcomes were projected over 30 years and discounted at 3.5% per year.

Results: Over 30 years, peginterferon beta-1a was dominant compared with interferon beta-1a (22, 30, and 44?mcg), and interferon beta-1b, and cost-effective compared with glatiramer acetate 20?mg. Results were most sensitive to variations in each DMT’s efficacy and acquisition costs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the results.

Limitations: The impact of improved adherence with peginterferon beta-1a on clinical and economic outcomes and the impact of subsequent DMTs after treatment discontinuation were not considered. Oral and infused DMTs were not included as comparators.

Conclusion Long-term treatment with peginterferon beta-1a improves clinical outcomes, while its cost profile makes it either dominant or cost-effective compared with other self-injectable DMTs for the treatment of RRMS in Scotland.     

The cost-effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

Background: The safety and efficacy of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) has been established; however, it is not clear which provides optimal value, given benefit-risk profiles and costs.

Aims: To compare the cost-effectiveness of current DMTs for patients with RRMS in the US.

Materials and methods: A Markov model predicting RRMS course following initiation of a DMT was created comparing outcomes (e.g. relapses, disease progression) and costs of natalizumab (NTZ), dimethyl fumarate (DMF), and peginterferon beta-1a (PEG) with fingolimod (FIN), glatiramer acetate (GA, 20?mg daily), and subcutaneous interferon beta-1a (IFN, 44?mcg), respectively, over 10 years. RRMS and secondary-progressive MS (SPMS) EDSS state transitions were predicted in 3-month cycles in which patients were at risk of death, relapse, or discontinuation. Upon DMT discontinuation, natural history progression and relapse rates were applied. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated for the cost per relapse avoided, relapse-free years gained, progression avoided, and progression-free years gained. The impact of model parameters on outcomes was evaluated via one-way sensitivity analyses.

Results: Costs ranged from $561,177 (NTZ) to $616,251 (GA). NTZ, DMF, and PEG were dominant (less costly and more effective) compared to FIN, GA, and IFN, respectively, for all ICERs. Variability in drug costs and parameters that affected drug cost accrual (e.g. discontinuation rates and the decision to drop out after SPMS conversion) had a considerable impact on ICERs.

Limitations: Several simplifying assumptions were made that may represent potential limitations of this analysis (e.g. a constant treatment effect over time was assumed).

Conclusions: The results from this analysis suggest that the NTZ, DMF, and PEG are cost-effective DMT choices compared to FIN, GA, and IFN, respectively. The actual impact on a particular plan will vary based on drug pricing and other factors affecting drug cost accrual.     

The fiscal consequences of public health investments in disease-modifying therapies for the treatment of multiple sclerosis in Sweden

Abstract

Background and aims: The economic consequences of multiple sclerosis (MS) are broader than those observed within the health system. The progressive nature suggests that people will not be able to live a normal productive life and will gradually require public benefits to maintain living standards. This study investigates the public economic impact of MS and how investments in disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) influence the lifetime costs to government attributed to changes in lifetime tax revenue and disability benefits based on improved health status linked to delayed disease progression.

Methods: Disease progression rates from previous MS Markov cohort models were applied to interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab using a public economic framework. The established relationship between expanded disability status scale and work-force participation, annual earnings, and disability rates for each DMT were applied. Subsequently, we assessed the effect of DMTs on discounted governmental costs consisting of health service costs, social insurance and disability costs, and changes in lifetime tax revenues.

Results: Fiscal benefits attributed to informal care and community services savings for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were SEK340,387, SEK486,837, SEK257,330, and SEK958,852 compared to placebo, respectively. Tax revenue gains linked to changes in lifetime productivity for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were estimated to be SEK27,474, SEK39,659, SEK21,661, and SEK75,809, with combined fiscal benefits of cost savings and tax revenue increases of SEK410,039, SEK596,592, SEK326,939, and SEK1,208,023, respectively.

Conclusion: The analysis described here illustrates the broader public economic benefits for government attributed to changes in disease status. The lifetime social insurance transfer costs were highest in non-treated patients, and lower social insurance costs were demonstrated with DMTs. These findings suggest that focusing cost-effectiveness analysis only on health costs will likely underestimate the value of DMTs.     

Budget impact analysis for dapagliflozin in type 2 diabetes in Egypt

Abstract

Introduction: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a major health problem in Egypt with a high impact on morbidity, mortality, and healthcare resources. This study evaluated the budget impact and the long-term consequences of dapagliflozin versus other conventional medications, as monotherapy, from both the societal and health insurance perspectives in Egypt.

Methods: A static budget impact model was developed to estimate the financial consequences of adopting dapagliflozin on the healthcare payer budget. We measured the direct medical costs of dapagliflozin (new scenario) as monotherapy, compared to metformin, insulin, sulphonylurea, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, thiazolidinedione, and repaglinide (old scenarios) over a time horizon of 3 years. Myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, hospitalization for heart failure (HHF), and initiation of renal replacement therapy (RRT) rates were captured from DECLARE TIMI 58 trial. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results: The budget impact model estimated 2,053,908 patients eligible for treatment with dapagliflozin from a societal perspective and 1,207,698 patients from the health insurance (HI) perspective. The new scenario allows for an initial savings of EGP121 million in the first year, which increased to EGP243 and EGP365 million in the second and third years, respectively. The total cumulative savings from a societal perspective were estimated at EGP731 million. Dapagliflozin allows for savings of EGP71, EGP143, and EGP215 million in the first, second and third years respectively, from the HI perspective, with total cumulative savings of EGP430 million over the 3 years.

Conclusion: Treating T2DM patients using dapagliflozin instead of conventional medications, maximizes patients’ benefits and decreases total costs due to drug cost offsets from fewer cardiovascular and renal events. The adoption of dapagliflozin is a budget-saving treatment option, resulting in substantial population-level health gains due to reduced event rate and cost savings from the perspective of the national healthcare system.