Aggregate Dividend Behavior and Permanent Earnings Hypothesis

The study examines the aggregate dividend behavior of U.S. corporations based on the permanent earnings hypothesis. Using annual data of aggregate earnings and dividends from 1871–1993, I find that although managers change dividends proportional to permanent earnings changes, they make revisions with a larger percentage change in dividends than in permanent earnings. The results from the post‐war data show that firms follow a partial adjustment policy with a long‐term dividend payout target in mind and make revisions with a delay. The quarterly data analysis yields results similar to those of the post‐war annual data.     

西方现代股利政策理论及实证研究回顾

本文对西方现代公司股利政策方面的理论和实证研究进行了一个综合性的回顾和分析。其中包括主流的股利行为模型、股利的信息内涵、代理成本、追随者效应,也包括国内研究中较少涉及的债务约束、声誉学说、成长机会和交易成本问题,以期对国内相对落后的股利政策研究和随意性较强的股利政策制定带来一定的借鉴意义。     

Dividend Changes and Future Earnings Performance： Evidence from UK Market

This paper investigates the dividend signaling hypothesis, described here as the relationship between dividend changes and future earnings performance. We find that managers pursue different patterns in UK from that in US when making dividend policy. A positive and significant association between dividend changes and the growth of future earnings is observed in the immediately following year after dividend announced There isn＇t significant link in the longer future. These phenomena are caused by managers＇ near-eyesight in UK market. In addition, an interesting finding is that dividend decreases have larger negative influence on earnings growth than positive impact on earnings prospects of dividend increases. This is consistent with the infrequent occurrence of dividend reduction.     

Extracting the information: espionage with double crossing

This paper addresses two very old issues in human society: espionage and double crossing. Our major conclusion points out that there will be a serious over rewarding problem in the direct mechanism due to double crossing in espionage, and a competitive mechanism with a relative performance regime can possibly mitigate the over rewarding problem and still extract the information.      

企业长期激励机制创新

长期激励机制匮乏问题一直是我国理论界和实业界最为关注的核心问题。指出目前在我国实行的长期激励措施的不足,提出了以“股息期权”,代替“股票期权”的激励方案,从而有效解决了我国目前的资本市场和法律法规对于“长期激励形式”的约束,可以为现阶段企业管理者进行薪酬激励机制设计时提供重要的参考和借鉴。     

中国政府统计抽样调查制度的总体框架研究

随着中国市场经济体制的逐步确立,政府的职能在逐渐转变,政府对统计数据的要求也在变化,这就要求政府统计调查制度也随之改革。适应市场经济体制和中国政府管理的特点以及城乡统筹发展的要求,政府统计调查应该以抽样调查为主体,抽样调查队伍和机构应主要设立在地市一级,调查的指标体系和内容应该改革与调整,企业抽样调查应该采用名单框和区域框结合的双框抽样方式。对于抽样调查得到的数据资料,不仅应当汇总得出各种可用于宏观经济管理与分析的总量指标数据和分类数据,而且还应当建立起全部被调查企业和被调查家庭的数据库,供政府部门和国内的科学研究机构进行微观社会经济活动主体层次的研究。     

Double Moral Hazard,Monitoring, and the Nature of Contracts

generalized double-sided moral-hazard model, with risk-averse parties who mutually monitor each other (to get a reasonable idea of outcome/effort). The model considers trade-off between monitoring costs and moral hazard costs, which are endogenously determined by the extent of monitoring. Using this model, we formally prove a generalized version of Coase's conjecture – that the optimal contract minimizes the agency and risk costs. We then show how varying assumptions about the feasibility or cost of monitoring of the outcome or the worker's effort lead to different contracts being optimal. The analysis is then used to explain the nature of contracts observed in practice under many different situations. We will give an explanation as to why industrial workers typically work under wage contracts, while share contracts are common in agriculture and will explain why profit sharing is more common for senior managers than for the production workers. Received September 19, 2000; revised version received October 30, 1997     

Competition and Regulation in Franchise Bidding

In this work we show that the separation property identified in the franchise bidding literature depends strictly on the hypothesis of coincidence of the regulator's beliefs with those of the competing firms. Nevertheless, in many contexts it is more truthful to hypothesize that the regulator's information is vaguer than that of the producers, so we introduce the possibility that the regulator is dealing with a double informational asymmetry as compared to the firms. In this case, the separation property is no longer valid, and the optimal tariff becomes a decreasing function of the degree of competition exercised during the auction.     

模糊自动控制理论在高速公路机电设备中的应用

文章介绍了在直流并励电动机控制中引进模糊自动控制,可以实现电动机恒流起动、恒速运行,降低电机的故障率,保障它的运行。     

分红保险合同红利负债的确认与计量研究

近年来分红保险已成为我国保险市场的热销产品,它几乎占据了寿险市场的半壁江山,但分红保险负债的确认与计量问题,特别是分红保险红利负债的确认与计量问题在我国并未形成统一的规范,本文根据分红保险的不同红利分配方式对分红保险合同红利负债的确认与计量问题进行研究。