Macroeconomic consequences of state fragility in sub‐Saharan Africa

Are poor macroeconomic outcomes primarily the result of economic policies, or of deeper underlying state fragility problems in sub‐Saharan Africa? We attempt to answer this question by using carefully specified dynamic panel regression techniques to show how state fragility conditions help to explain the differences in the macroeconomic performance of sub‐Saharan African economies, and to identify the most plausible mechanisms of transmission. We find that countries with greater fragility suffer higher macroeconomic volatility and crisis; they also experience weaker growth. When we disaggregate state fragility into its various components, we find that it is the security and social components that have the strongest causal impact on macroeconomic outcomes, while the political component is, at best, weak. Therefore, we conclude that it is state fragility conditions, and not necessarily macroeconomic policies, that are of first‐order importance in explaining the differences in macroeconomic performance for African countries. The knock‐on effects are mostly mediated through the fiscal channel, the aid channel, and the finance channel. Accordingly, we recommend that interventions in fragile states should best focus on exploiting the potential for using fiscal policy, aid, and finance as instruments to improve macroeconomic outcomes in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.     

The distributional impact of unification and the 1992–93 recession on West German households

The 1992–93 recession in the western states of Germany has been attributed, in substantial measure, to the macroeconomic consequences of policies to finance unification. Studies of the costs of unification have not attempted to measure the burden of the recession. We estimate a dynamic, panel model of household incomes using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and use it to forecast what these incomes would have been in 1992–94 without a recession. Using a ratio of actual to forecast incomes, we compare the relative burden of the recession across households. Our findings suggest that western households below the median income bore the brunt of the combined impact of unification and the recession of 1992–93.
JEL classification: P3, D3, E3.     

美国调节区域经济差异的财政措施及启示

美国的地理位置和历史文化决定了美国区域经济的发展严重不平衡.本文分析了美国政府对落后地区经济的财政调节措施,这对我国在市场经济条件下调节区域经济,推进西部大开发,一定具有深刻的启示.     

民办本科院校经济管理专业实践性教学初探

分析了本科院校的教育定位和经济管理类专业的教学模式;探讨以信息和信息技术完美的结合为实践型教育的支撑点,倡导学校具体教学单位与专业软件开发商共同研究开发出经济管理专业的应用型教学模拟软件并用于教学的问题。     

经济转型条件下的会计监管模式

目前，我国正处在经济转型过程当中，不完全改革引起了时而出现的宏观经济不稳定、就业得不到保证、越来越大的竞争压力、社会不公平的增加、难以削减的贫困以及严重的腐败问题，都与转型期的特点密切相关。而现代企业制度产生的双元控制主体的利益不一致、信息不对称，造成了现实中会计信息严重失真，影响了资本市场的有效运行。因此，引入以“政府为主导的会计监管模式”，可从源头上防范和治理腐败，保障现代企业制度的顺利实施，提高会计信息质量，维护市场经济秩序。     

西汉初期“与民休息”政策述论

西汉初期是我国农业经济迅速恢复并达到空前繁荣的时期,这与西汉初期统治集团采取了比较符合实际的"与民休息"的经济政策紧密相关。其时代背景主要是鉴于秦朝实行严刑峻法、横征暴敛政策而亡的历史教训,以及汉初经济崩溃、民生凋敝的实际状况。"与民休息"政策内容丰富,主要包括调整土地关系、赋予军功贵族免役特权、免部分官私奴婢为庶人、减免田税口算徭戍、崇尚节俭和轻刑慎罚等六个方面。"与民休息"的经济政策,将为我们今天解决"三农"问题,发展农业经济,建设社会主义新农村提供有益的借鉴。     

The best way of bilateral special economic zone to Sino-Vietnam economic cooperation

The Bilateral Special Economic Zones is a new idea about economic co-operation ways. It is going to be set by both countries with a common boundary for promoting the economic co-operation between two sides. It can be firstly set along the boundary between China and Vietnam. It will promote the economic co-operation between them, but China and ASEAN. It can be set along the Chinese boundary with the neighboring countries and will promote the economic co-operation between the both sides for setting up a better environment around China.     

农民工城乡迁移个人机会成本的构成及定量分析

农民工城乡迁移的个人机会成本可归纳为经济性个人机会成本、社会性个人机会成本和政治性个人机会成本三大类，基于笔者主持的1012名城乡迁移农民工的问卷调查，文章分析了这三类个人机会成本各自的构成，并对它们进行了定量分析。     

经济增长方式范式转变研究

文章从自然资源价值评估机制和制度安排的优化机制两方面阐述了经济增长方式转变的动力机制，认为应该通过完善制度体系、建立技术支撑体系以及提高公众参与循环经济意识，实现我国经济增长方式的转变。