Should sequels differ from original movies in pre-launch advertising schedule? Lessons from consumers' online search activity

Sequels have become a profitable strategy in the U.S. motion picture industry because of their strong name recognition. However, while the established positioning of a sequel may help insulate it from competing firms' advertising messages, its familiarity may cause moviegoers to be more easily satiated with advertising from the sequel. Therefore, this study examines how sequels differ from original concept movies in terms of their ad effectiveness. We focus our analysis on pre-launch periods, given these periods' importance in shaping the financial outcomes of motion pictures. We consider the weekly online search volume of a movie as a measure of consumer interest in it, and thus as an intermediate response to pre-launch advertising. We then develop a model that assumes ad effectiveness can decline, due to copy and repetition wearout, and increase, due to forgetting, over time. We find that copy wearout is greater for original movies, while repetition wearout and forgetting are greater for sequels. These findings suggest that sequels should allocate more in early pre-launch periods and less immediately before release, relative to originals, to maximize pre-launch consumer interest.     

存款保险制度的产生发展及其理论基础

本文通过对存款保险制度在国际上产生发展的背景分析 ,发现该制度在实践中有内在的必然性 ,在理论上有坚实的基础 ,银行的存在是金融效率所在 ,尽管挤兑可能会发生甚至迅速演化为银行危机 ,但不能否定银行的客观必要性。相反 ,需要防止挤兑和银行危机发生的制度安排 ,其中没有任何一种安排能够取代存款保险制度。中国现在比以往任何时候都需要采纳这一制度以适应市场化金融改革开放的需要 ,当然相应的技术问题仍需要解决。     

中国户口制度改革的理论分析

随着户籍制度改革的深化 ,从完全禁止户口迁移到数量限制政策 ,再到征收费用政策和放开小城镇入户限制的逐步放松户籍管制政策 ,对经济发展的贡献日益增加 ,损害逐渐减轻。我国放开小城镇户籍限制的改革放活了地方经济。我国户籍制度改革进程是由经济内生决定的 ,城市经济发展的需要推进着户籍制度的改革进程。那些放开户籍限制的城市也没有出现人们担心的问题。放开户籍限制不会构成对城市就业、住房、治安、交通的压力 ,反而创造了发展的契机。     

遗产动机与公共养老保险制度的效应分析

本文运用内生增长模型与世代重叠模型的结合分析，试图从理论上来探讨在考虑人们遗产动机的情况下，公共养老保险制度对于经济增长率和社会福利（social welfare）所产生的效应。在分析中，基金积累式养老保险制度的中立性的特征再次得以确认；同时，我们还发现在一定条件下，现收现付方式养老保险制度也可能保持中立性，即当具有遗产动机的个人对于今后养老保险制度拥有完全信息时，个人会将足够的遗产留与后代，使得后代在养老保险费上的负担与获取的遗产相抵，从而使得各代人消费路径以及资本积累路径不发生变化，因此，养老保险制度的建立也不会对经济增长率和社会福利水平产生影响。     

现阶段我国汇率政策在金融政策组合中的效应分析

尽管对单一宏观政策的研究已经较为深入了，但对两种宏观政策的组合效应的研究还较为缺乏。本文正是从这一角度出发，分析了当前我国实行的积极的货币政策和稳定的汇率政策组合的正负效应。并且指出，尽管这种组合对由于货币供给的内生性造成的货币政策效率低下具有弥补作用，但是却加剧了外部经济的失衡，并且，这种失衡由于“溢出效应”而会影响到内部经济均衡。从而出现了诸如储备机会成本增高、基础货币供应控制的难度加大、准备金制度改革难度加大等矛盾。因此，不应该将牺牲外部均衡来保全内部均衡的做法作为其长期政策取向。     

Minimum Quality Standards under Asymmetric Duopoly with Endogenous Quality Ordering: A Note

In this note, we revisit minimum quality standards (MQS) under a vertically differentiated duopoly. We generalize the model in Ronnen (1991) and Valletti (2000) by introducing asymmetry into the fixed cost of quality improvement and by explicitly taking into account the endogeneity of quality ordering. In the generalized model, we show that the results derived by Ronnen (1991) and Valletti (2000) are largely robust.     

Growth,Employment and Taxation with Distortions in the Goods and Labour Market

Abstract. This paper analyses taxation in the presence of distortions in goods and labour markets in an endogenous growth model. The government disposes of capital, labour and consumption taxes. It is shown that the market solution leads to suboptimally low levels of growth and employment. However, available tax instruments are sufficient to attain the first‐best growth path in this economy. The paper further explores the relative distortion of capital and labour taxes. For plausible parametrisations of the model, lowering capital taxes dominate reductions in labour taxes in welfare terms.     

Anticipated Environmental Policy and Transitional Dynamics in an Endogenous Growth Model

This paper makes a new attempt toinvestigate how an anticipatedenvironmental policy governs the transitionaldynamics of an economy when pollutionexternality is taken into account. Themodeling strategy we use is an AK technologyendogenous growth framework with an endogenousleisure-labor choice. It is found that, unlikeinelastic labor supply framework, a rise inpublic abatement expenditure will stimulate thebalanced economic growth rate. It is alsofound that public abatement technology plays animportant role in determining the transitionaladjustment of the economic growth rate inresponse to a pre-announced environmentalpolicy.     

Endogenous Timing in a Mixed Oligopoly with Foreign Competitors: the Linear Demand Case

We introduce foreign private firms into the model of Pal (1998) and investigate the impact of the introduction of foreign private firms on the endogenous timing in a mixed oligopoly in the linear demand case. We find that the public firm chooses to be a follower of all domestic private firms and that the public firm chooses not to be a leader of all foreign private firms, which is in contrast to Matsumura (2003).