INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

基于高校教师职业特点的激励机制探析

在对高校教师激励机制现状分析之后,针对高校教师的职业特点,提出了高校教师激励机制模式:薪酬激励、社会保障计划、参与激励、竞争激励、组织文化激励、工作激励。     

论青少年犯罪动向及对策

近几年,青少年犯罪案件呈突发性、偶发性,犯罪年龄降低,由单独型向团伙型发展的特点.其原因有家庭因素、学校因素、社会因素.预防和惩治青少年犯罪,需要全社会广泛参与,综合治理.     

邓小平发展观的基本特征

邓小平发展观是邓小平理论的核心内容之一.邓小平发展现,体现了视野的全球性、内涵的丰富性、体系的创新性、思维的辩证性、取向的人民性等基本特征.邓小平发展观是与时代和国情相适应的社会主义发展观,是科学发展观确立的思想基础.     

我国疫苗供应链浅析

在分析疫苗物流特性的基础上,总结了我国疫苗供应链存在的问题,指出其主要原因是:利益分配不合理、供应层次过多、供应垄断、监管机制不合理,并提出了增加财政投入、分离运营与监管、改变调整供应链结构、加强信息化监管等措施。     

泉州发展现代物流业的合理布局规划研究

分析了泉州物流业的发展现状和需求中存在的问题，阐述了泉州发展现代物流业的要点，提出了泉州发展现代物流业的对策措施。     

辽代包装器物艺术特征研判

契丹民族经济文化方式的不同、自然资源及材料选择的便利、民族风俗习惯的惯性和人类求同心理的趋向,以及与中原汉族文化艺术的交流,使契丹民族包装器物在具有鲜明的少数民族艺术特色的同时,表现出一定的汉族文化风格特色。并在一定程度上影响和充实了中原包装艺术。     

基于遗传算法的核函数参数优化

核主分量分析是一种输入输出特征非线性变换技术。选择最优或接近最优的非线性变换核函数参数,使类的可分性测度最大,是KPCA应用于特征提取的关键。本文采用高斯变异遗传算法作优化技术,实现了KPCA和GA的集成,适合核函数参数的优化选择。仿真表明,该技术可行、有效。     

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon using a stacked autoencoder and ensemble regression model

The study of climatic variables that govern the Indian summer monsoon has been widely explored. In this work, we use a non-linear deep learning-based feature reduction scheme for the discovery of skilful predictors for monsoon rainfall with climatic variables from various regions of the globe. We use a stacked autoencoder network along with two advanced machine learning techniques to forecast the Indian summer monsoon. We show that the predictors such as the sea surface temperature and zonal wind can predict the Indian summer monsoon one month ahead, whereas the sea level pressure can predict ten months before the season. Further, we also show that the predictors derived from a combination of climatic variables can outperform the predictors derived from an individual variable. The stacked autoencoder model with combined predictors of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure can predict the monsoon (June-September) two months ahead with a 2.8% error. The accuracy of the identified predictors is found to be superior to the state-of-the-art predictions of the Indian monsoon.     

自然环境和传统文化是宁波城市特色的根基

本文通过研究认为宁波城市有非常好的自然环境条件和深厚的历史文化沉淀,城市特色塑要充分利用这两方面优势,加以充分发挥,才能形成宁波城市特有的风貌。文章具体提出如何围绕宁波自然环境中最重要的特征－－水体和宁波作为全国历史文化名城,7,000年河姆渡文化的发祥地,具有1,000多年建城历史等特点,开展城市建设的构想。