转型经济学的"转型":超越渐进与激进的两分法 --对中国经济转轨进程的再思考

随着计划经济向市场经济的过渡，“激进式改革”和“渐进式改革”两条转轨路径成为转轨经济学中讨论最多的话题。但是，“激进”与“渐进”对于速度的强调转移了人们应该关注的重点，这种区分在逻辑上并不能为制度变迁提供令人信服的解释，也不能反映出任何一个国家转轨的复杂进程。因此，转型经济学应当完成自身的“转型”：遵循经济发展和制度演进的内在逻辑，超越“激进”与“渐进”的两分法。     

Are property rights enough?Re‐evaluating a big‐bang claim1

We investigate the claim made by proponents of the big‐bang strategy that the establishment of property rights in an economy in transition creates its own demand for the enforcement of laws to protect those rights. Our model contains a government engaging in activities to accomplish objectives that depend on public support for the enforcement of the rule of law and agents who interpret the level of activities of the government as indications of the government's intent to enforce the rule of law. Agents, using the level of government activities as an input to their decisions, choose whether to support the government's objectives. We establish conditions under which the level of activities chosen by the government maximizes its benefits, and simultaneously induces the constituency to support enforcement of the rule of law. These conditions provide a basis for the argument for the implementation of the big‐bang policy. When these conditions do not hold, however, we show that the level of activities that maximizes the government's benefits may have only a minor impact on support for the enforcement of the rule of law. Two characteristics play an important role in these conditions: the initial level of crime and the types of activities the government chooses to undertake. We present examples showing that the initial level of crime has the more dramatic effect on subsequent support for the rule of law.     

Informal Institutions and Social Transition： a Case Study of Chinese and Russian Reform

In this paper, based on the theory of institutional economics of the relationship between informal and the formal institution and that of institutional conformity and social performance, by comparing the process of social transition between Russia and China, the author attempts to show that informal institution of Russia and China has a strong impact on the performance of social transition in the two countries hence to show the superiority of Gradualism to Constructivism.     

产权改革与体制低效的“反公地悲剧”现象分析

渐进主义模式有利于社会变革的可控性，但它只能完成外围容易实现的改革目标。农村和城市经济改革中已经获得“有限”市场自由的各类经济主体与正在转型中的管理体制代理者之间存在的激励不相容，使我国的经济改革呈现出了“不关心”、“不作为”和寻租等严重的“反公地悲剧”问题。要彻底突破目前陷于停滞的改革困境。就亟须克服渐进主义思维的惯性，从土地、国企和体制等改革的实践难题着手，中央政府层面的“项层设计”应该是唯一的选择。     

How gradualist are Chinese reforms? Evidence from rural income determinants

Gradualist reform (GR) is a strategy that implements partial and incremental reforms at the beginning but gradually deepens the reforms over time. Using income determinants in rural China as the measure of the GR hypothesis, this paper provides a direct test of the widely accepted claim that China has followed a GR strategy. In the sense that reform deepens, production factors should become more important income determinants over time. Our difference-in-difference analysis, based on a large panel dataset from fixed-site rural surveys conducted between 1986 and 2002, shows that the efficiency of return to production factors deteriorated over time instead. Households that had more production resources, such as land and labor, or that devoted more labor and time to entrepreneurial activities experienced better income growth in the 1980s, but households with better political status did so in the 1990s. Further difference-in-difference analyses show that these income patterns are related to an inefficient credit allocation due to government interference in the 1990s compared to market mechanisms in the 1980s. Overall, the empirical evidence on the income determinants and on rural finance does not support the GR hypothesis on China's reform path.     

Economies in transition and in development: A possible warning from Adam Smith

Abstract

If Adam Smith were asked about transitioning and developing economies today, one may infer, he might suggest introducing small, yet constant, opportunities for wealth accumulation, avoiding the sudden accumulation of riches. Good institutions and the moral rules often needed to comply with them are more likely to be disregarded if there are large, sudden material gains, such as new wealth generated by the sudden opening of markets or government granting monopolies. For Smith, the desire to show off in front of others can inhibit moral behaviour and respect for good institutions, generating perverse incentives that hinder growth. Gradual change is to be preferred.     

民营企业成长的空间扩展路径研究——以绍兴为例的分析

本文以绍兴县民营企业为例,运用"企业国际化的渐进论"的研究方法,分别从经营方式演变和市场扩展路径的角度探讨民营企业成长的空间扩展路径,并得出结论:民营企业空间扩展无论从经营方式演变或市场扩展路径上均基本遵循渐进式演变路径,但部分企业也存在一定的跳跃现象。     

Monetary policy inertia: More a fiction than a fact?

Empirical estimates of monetary policy reaction functions feature a very high estimated degree of monetary policy inertia. This evidence is very hard of reconcile with the alternative evidence of low predictability of monetary policy rates. In this paper we examine the potential relevance of the problem of weak instruments to correctly identify the degree of monetary policy inertia in forward-looking monetary policy reaction function of the type originally proposed by Taylor [1993. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Canergie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195–214]. After appropriately diagnosing and taking care of the weak instruments problem, we find an estimated degree of policy inertia which is significantly lower than the common value in the empirical literature on monetary policy rules.     

中国城镇就业政策的形成与演变:1949-2008——基于“渐进主义模式”的分析

1949年以来,中国城镇历经了几次大的失业高峰,在治理失业问题的过程中,政府形成了较为完备的就业政策体系。这套就业政策体系在形成演变过程中具有明显的"渐进主义"特征,即"延续多于创新、重复多于变革"。这种"渐进主义"的产生,基本符合经典理论的分析,同时又与以下因素的共同作用有关:中国共产党的长期执政、政府主导型经济发展模式的持续、人口压力的持续和周期性恶化、就业压力的持续和周期性恶化以及政策传统和路径依赖。     

What Are the Lessons from Post‐Communist Transitions?

This paper provides a review of the literature on post‐communist transitions. It outlines the debate between the proponents of rapid reforms and the advocates of neo‐institutionalism. Providing evidence from the transitional countries, it suggests an alternative approach, explicitly acknowledging the impact of two categories of constraints on reforms.