畜禽养殖业的环境影响及经济分析

畜禽业污染是我国农业面源污染的主要来源。本文估算了我国畜禽养殖业污染物排放量,阐述了畜禽养殖的环境影响,分析了畜禽污染内在的经济原因,并提出了防治畜禽污染的经济政策和措施,包括发展循环畜牧业、建设现代化的畜禽业物流体系、采纳各种环境经济手段、界定农村公共资源产权、实施优质畜禽产品品牌化战略、鼓励发展环保产业。     

我国畜产品价格波动分析——基于ARCH类模型

运用ARCH类模型对我国主要畜产品的价格波动率进行了分析。结果表明:牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动具有显著的波动积聚性,鸡蛋价格波动没有显著的异方差效应;除牛肉市场外,羊肉和鸡肉市场不具有高风险、高回报的特征;猪肉、牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉的价格波动没有非对称性。认为应在畜产品市场出现大的价格波动时及时采取平抑措施,且政府需规范畜产品市场秩序、完善畜产品市场制度。     

农牧户生计资本对农畜产品销售渠道选择影响研究

[目的]优化农畜产品销售渠道,提高农牧民收入,是乡村振兴战略不可或缺的实施路径。文章通过对内蒙古农牧户生计资本进行测算与分析,探究不同生计类型农牧户生计资本与其农畜产品销售渠道选择间的互馈关系,精准识别不同类型农牧户选择销售渠道的影响因素,旨在优化民族地区乡村农畜产品流通渠道,助力民族地区乡村振兴。[方法]文章基于可持续生计理论(DFID),以微观农牧户视角,从自然资本、人力资本、物质资本、金融资本、社会资本5个维度,运用农牧户生计量化法和模糊层次分析法(FAHP)、Multivariate Logistic模型、多元线性回归实证研究。[结果](1)不同类型农牧户生计资本存量具有显著差异,生计资本由高到低排序为:半农半牧户纯农户纯牧户;(2)农牧户对农畜产品销售渠道选择比例由高到低排序为:中间商、批发市场、零售市场、合作社、订单销售、超市直供,传统卖给中间商依然是内蒙古地区农畜产品流通渠道的主要模式,且不同销售渠道之间存在互补与竞争关系;(3)农牧户生计资本对其选择销售渠道具有显著影响,影响力由高到低排序为:人力资本自然资本金融资本社会资本物质资本;(4)不同维度生计资本对不同类型农牧户的农畜产品销售渠道的选择影响程度具有显著差异,影响农牧户选择销售渠道的首要因子是人力资本,影响牧户选择的首要因子是金融资本,影响半农半牧户选择的首要因子是社会资本与人力资本。[结论]该文提出基于农牧户生计资本视角的民族地区乡村农畜产品销售渠道优化对策与建议,一定程度上破解了不同类型农牧户在农畜产品销售渠道选择时遇到的困境。     

畜牧产业结构变动对我国粮食安全的影响分析

［目的］改革开放40多年来,我国畜牧产业结构不断调整和优化,其生产供给结构与消费需求结构的变动与我国粮食安全问题息息相关。［方法］文章基于改革开放40多年来畜牧产业发展历程,从供给与需求两个维度分析我国畜牧产业结构变动的特征,并进一步探究畜牧产业结构变动与我国粮食安全间的作用机理,最后运用灰色关联度分析法实证其关联影响度。［结果］我国畜牧产业结构由耗粮型为主向节粮型转变,畜产品供给结构趋于合理,但不同区域间存在较大差异; 我国居民对畜产品消费需求量增加,但城乡居民畜产品消费结构及变动存在一定差异性; 畜牧产业结构变动与粮食安全有重要联系,畜牧业发展同保障国家粮食安全并不矛盾,畜牧产业结构变动主要通过耕地、基于口粮替代的食物需求结构变化及饲料粮需求3个方面作用于粮食安全; 具体来看,粮食播种面积、耗粮型畜产品比重和耗粮型畜产品饲料转化率对粮食安全水平的关联影响较大,节粮型畜产品比重与节粮型畜产品饲料转化率对粮食安全水平的关联影响小于耗粮型畜产品的影响。［结论］不断提高不同畜产品的饲料转化率,加大非粮型饲料资源开发利用度,推广非粮饲料应用技术,加快畜牧产业转型升级,满足消费者需求和保障国家粮食安全。     

Collective livestock research for sustainable disease management in Mali and Burkina Faso

An international multi-disciplinary team of scientists, led by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), tackled the problem of bovine trypanosomosis and the development of drug resistance in West Africa, inter alia, by the promotion of rational drug use (RDU) principles. These principles had been brought to farmers by practical training and by the provision of information leaflets. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of RDU training at smallholder level with respect to advances in farmers' knowledge and farm productivity before research outputs could be scaled up. Therefore, 508 cattle farmers attended a disease-specific knowledge test and provided information about farm production. Results show that farmers who participated in the training are more likely to identify signs and causes of the disease and to correctly administer drugs. Allocating scores to each question in the knowledge tests and scrutinizing the differences between trained and untrained farmers by matching procedures shows that participating farmers reach higher scores in all knowledge categories. Moreover, the acquisition of additional knowledge and the application of improved control strategies significantly increase farm performance. Additionally, an allocative effect was identified since trypanocide expenditures were saved by less expensive inputs.     

我国肉牛养殖环境效率及影响因素分析

[目的]当前我国正处在食物消费结构转型升级背景下,牛肉需求量持续上升,同时环保约束日益趋紧、牛肉进口量不断攀升等使得我国肉牛产业面临严峻挑战。因此提升肉牛养殖环境效率、探究影响环境效率的关键因素,对稳定牛肉市场供给、促进肉牛产业的健康持续发展十分关键。[方法]文章利用1997—2017年投入产出数据,借助考虑非期望产出的超效率SBM模型对黑龙江、河南、宁夏、陕西和新疆5省区肉牛养殖环境效率进行测算,分析其时空分布特征,探究影响肉牛养殖环境效率的重要因素。[结果] 1997—2017年我国肉牛养殖的环境效率均值为0.954 7,不同地区的环境效率存在显著差异,河南、黑龙江和宁夏处在高值区域,而陕西和新疆处在低值区域。物质劳动生产率、疫病风险以及饲料结构均对肉牛养殖环境效率具有显著影响。[结论](1)肉牛养殖的环境效率存在一定的空间差异,因此在各省区在贯彻执行中央政府统一政策部署的条件下,应当根据自身实际,因地制宜制定有利于提高当地肉牛养殖环境效率的相关政策。(2)物质劳动生产率对肉牛养殖环境效率具有显著正向影响,而疫病风险和饲料结构对其产生显著的负向影响,因此鼓励提高物质劳动生产率、防范并降低疫病风险、科学改善饲料结构将有利于提升肉牛养殖的环境效率。     

牧草与粮食安全

随着我国畜牧业的快速发展,饲料用粮对我国粮食安全的影响越来越大。我国牧草资源丰富,在发展节粮型畜牧业中发挥着重要作用,在我国饲料粮供应有较大缺口的情况下,加大优质牧草的生产和利用力度,增加优质牧草的供应总量,提高其在家畜日粮中的比例,补充饲料粮缺口或替代部分饲料粮,是减轻饲料粮对粮食安全压力的有效途径之一。     

Municipal commonage policy and livestock owners: Findings from the Eastern Cape,South Africa

The new African National Congress government announced after 1994 that municipal commonage would be a pillar of their land reform programme. The Department of Land Affairs spearheaded this by acquiring new land to complement the existing ‘old’ commonages. The aim of old commonage was to supplement the income of poor urban residents through the subsistence user system whereas new commonage was intended as a ‘stepping stone’ for emergent farmers. We investigated the differences between old and new commonage farmers as well as how they perceived the Makana local municipality's capacity to manage the commonage. The results showed that local institutions were weak. Only 46% of the old commonage farmers were members of a local livestock association whereas 74% of the new commonage farmers were members. Most old commonage farmers (59%) were dissatisfied with local government's management of the commonage. In contrast, only 37% of the new commonage farmers were dissatisfied with the management of the commonage. There were no differences between old and new commonage farmers in terms of livestock owners’ characteristics and mean annual net direct-use value of livestock. There were also no differences in the age of the two types of commonage farmers. Furthermore, there was no association between the type of commonage and level of education. The mean annual net direct-use value of livestock on old commonage was R6308 compared with R9707 on new commonage. Although the income from livestock for new commonage farmers varied slightly from that of old commonage farmers, the annual productive output per farmer on old commonage was R473 ha⁻¹, three times higher than that of new commonage farmers which was R134 ha⁻¹. We suggest that new land policy legislation is needed in which poverty as well as the legal arrangements between all stakeholders is clearly defined. Furthermore, national departments need to be more involved with local municipalities to increase local management capacity.     

China's agriculture,smallholders and trade: driven by the livestock revolution?*

China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country  termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is to what extent this rapid increase in demand for livestock products is reflected in China's agri‐food trade statistics? While her agri‐food imports have dramatically increased since China's accession to the WTO, livestock products have not made a noticeable contribution, although the import of certain animal feedstuffs has. This implies China's continuing self‐sufficiency in most livestock products. The paper next considers developments in China's livestock farming sector and policies that have been contributing to these supply‐side developments. The paper concludes with an examination of issues that may be important to the future development of China's, and the world's, livestock situation;  this includes future demand developments, and the question of whether future demand growth in China might be met with local production, imports of final product, and/or imports of feedstuffs.