人民币均衡汇率、汇率错位与出口的关系

运用1978～2005年的数据，分别计算了人民币均衡汇率水平和汇率错位程度，并运用E-G两步法、误差修正模型和二元Logit模型对人民币均衡汇率、汇率错位与出口之间的关系进行了实证分析。     

The Importance of the Exchange Rate Regime in Limiting Misalignment

This paper explores how the choice of a country’s exchange rate regime may affect exchange rate misalignment for developing and developed countries. A measure of misalignment is obtained by using a panel cointegration vector estimator. This paper finds that for developing countries, an intermediate exchange rate regime (a regime falling somewhere between a pure float and a hard peg) is most effective in preventing exchange rate misalignment. Additionally, the choice of an exchange rate regime as a means to limit misalignment matters for developing countries, but does not seem to matter for developed countries.     

MUNICIPAL CONTRACTING OUT: GOVERNANCE CHOICES,MISALIGNMENT AND PERFORMANCE IN SWEDISH LOCAL GOVERNMENT

In this paper we apply a Transaction Cost Theory framework to analyse the use and effects of contracting out in Swedish local government. During the last decade Swedish local authorities, like in many other countries, have, to a larger extent, started to contract external subcontractors to fulfil their responsibilities towards its citizens. It is not only in the traditional subcontracting sectors such as housing, infrastructure, and technical services that this trend is evident, but also in policy areas like education, social care, and elderly care. In fact, very little is known about the overall effects of, and the mechanisms underlying, governance choices. The overall results corroborate transaction cost reasoning. Supplier competition and specificity have anticipated effects on municipal de‐integration. Too little, but not too much, use of contracting out, in relation to theoretical predictions, worsens performance. The latter aspect is not fully in accordance with TCE‐propositions.     

人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的实证研究

基于均衡汇率理论,应用协整模型,采用真实变量分析了1980-2003年的人民币实际汇率及其与均衡汇率的失调情况,进而研究了不同时期人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的关系。结果表明:贸易条件与中长期以及短期的实际汇率存在显著的关系,贸易条件的恶化或改善是导致人民币实际汇率升值或贬值的重要原因之一。并且,在不同的发展时期,贸易条件对实际汇率的影响呈现出不同的特点。     

Has the Chinese currency been undervalued?

China's trade surplus reached a record $102 billion in 2005 while the US trade deficit of $717 billion accounted for 5.8% of US Gross Domestic Product in the same year. US policy makers claim China's currency is undervalued about 25 to 35% against the US dollar and they blame China for holding the value of the RMB weak to keep Chinese products competitive on prices in international markets. Given the unique situation in China, where the capital account is only partially convertible and the economy has been growing at an annual average rate of 10% over the last two decades, this paper empirically examines the magnitude of the exchange rate misalignment of China's RMB against the US dollar by using the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER) models. Our results show that the RMB was undervalued by approximately 15% from 2002:Q2 to 2003:Q4; however, it is interesting to note that while the RMB was overvalued during 1997:Q4–2002:Q2, China experienced a huge trade surplus during that period.     

Euro-dollar real exchange rate misalignments： Is the euro overvalued？

This paper estimates both short term and long run relationship between the real bilateral EUR-USD exchange rate and its real determinants. In the long run, it finds that the non-stationary real exchange rate in levels is linearly co-integrated with real variables. Using an ordinary least squares method with error correction mechanism, it investigates real EUR-USD exchange rate misalignment in the short term. By analysing real variables and their influence on international trade and capital movements, potential economic policies capable of maintaining equilibrium in the balance of payments and avoiding currency overvaluation are considered.     

人民币行为均衡汇率及错位程度的测算研究:1978-2006

基于行为均衡汇率理论,应用多种计量经济方法对1978-2006年期间人民币实际汇率状况进行的实证分析结果表明:从名义汇率错位情况来看,1995年及以前的名义汇率都是高估的,1996-2005年的名义汇率基本上都是低估的,且低估程度在2000年达到顶点,然后逐渐下降;2005年约低估4.7%,但到2006年,受2005年人民币汇率改革的影响,名义汇率反而高估约0.9%.从实际汇率错位情况来看,1993年及以前的人民币实际有效汇率都是高估的,1994年以后,随着出口的快速增长以及美元的不断贬值,人民币实际有效汇率相对于行为均衡汇率低估程度总体上不断扩大,2005年约低估16.3%;到2006年,受2005年人民币汇率改革的影响,人民币实际有效汇率低估程度有所下降,约低估15.3%.     

Currency Undervaluation and Economic Rebalancing towards Services： Is China an Exception？

The present study investigates the main determinants of the employment share of the service sector using a panel of 66 countries over the period 1983–2007. Based on alternative measures of currency misalignment, the study extends the literature by investigating the impact of an undervalued currency on services. The empirical findings show that together with productivity and income per capita, currency undervaluation significantly determines the total employment share of services. Another key finding is that conventional crosscountry determinants and the exchange rate undervaluation can only partially explain the underdevelopment of services activity in China and in other South‐East Asian countries. In these countries, policies that aim at rebalancing the economy towards services should include elements to reform the domestic financial market, and the social security and healthcare systems.     

Choice of exchange rate system and macroeconomic volatility of three Asian emerging economies

This study highlights the importance of choice of exchange rate system to macroeconomic stability of small-open emerging economies based on the outcomes of the recent exchange rate regime switches of three Asian countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. These countries have high similarities in their economic structures, but have reacted very differently in mitigating the economic distortion of the 1997 financial crisis, in particular in the adoption of exchange rate system. The empirical results of this study show that the amplified instability of macro-variables in Thailand and Indonesia, which was due to the crisis, were not stabilized by switching the exchange rate system to a flexible regime. The volatilities, however, were effectively stabilized after the countries made the second switch – from the independent float to the managed float with no pre-announcement. For Malaysia, a switch from the managed float to the pegged system successfully reduced the volatilities. The exchange rate misalignments of the countries, except Indonesia, were also reduced when the countries switched from a flexible to a more fixed managed float system. These empirical findings thus strongly support central banks of small-open emerging economies to adopt a more fixed, rather than a more flexible system. However, the managed float system needs to couple with efficient management to ensure a smooth and stable regime.     

人民币均衡汇率错位对进出口的影响——基于协整理论和二元选择模型的实证分析

本文基于协整理论,运用单位根检验、二步法、误差修正模型和二元选择Probit和Logit模型,对人民币均衡汇率错位对进、出口的影响进行了实证分析。本文的创新之处：在模型中引入了反映我国“二元经济结构”特征的三个控制变量——工农业对GDP的贡献度之差,城乡居民家庭恩格尔系数之差,第一产业和第二产业人口构成之差参与回归检验,显著性很强,使得模型更可信和稳定。结论表明：人民币均衡汇率错位对进、出口均有不同程度的负面影响,对进口的负面影响稍大于出口;人民币均衡汇率错位对进口向长期均衡水平的调整比出口更加有利;人民币均衡汇率高估错位幅度越大,越有利于进口;低估错位幅度越大,越有利于出口。