Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks

This paper offers a plausible explanation for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s. Although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature, standard economic models are not able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are used to simulate the models. In particular, standard models cannot explain the depth of the recession in 1974–75 and the strong revival in 1976–78 based on the oil price movements in that period. This paper argues that a missing multiplier-accelerator mechanism from standard models may hold the key.     

投入产出乘数模型与其扩展方法

在投入产出模型里引入凯恩斯乘数理论，建立能够计算结构化乘数的投入产出乘数模型，是近年来投入产出领域探讨较多的一个问题。从前提假设、乘数效应的传导机制和最终推导结果等方面对凯恩斯乘数模型和投入产出乘数模型进行比较，指出建立投入产出乘数模型将凯恩斯乘数进行结构化处理，应该从放宽前提假设条件入手，并以引入列向旁侧效应为例对原模型进行了扩展。     

中国国债的货币供给量效应：理论诠释与实证分析

本文通过理论与实证分析得出结论，我国国债发行已产生显著的货币供给量倍数扩张效应。因此，政府应高度重视并正确运用国债发行这一调控工具，把它与财政政策和货币政策协调运作有机地结合起来，提高调控宏观经济的水平。     

上海世博会的乘数效应

本文主要运用投资乘数模型,对世博会为上海GDP的贡献进行了分析和预测,并对理论乘数效应在举办世博会中的制约因素进行了讨论,为上海市政府的宏观调控提出建议。     

基于投入--占用--产出技术的自然资源乘数分析

本文在简要介绍投入—占用—产出系数表的基础上,给出了考虑固定资产占用的资源乘数计算公式。然后,以青岛市为例,研究了青岛市的海洋鱼类资源乘数。结果表明,1997年青岛市渔业部门的海洋鱼类资源乘数,考虑固定资产占用比不考虑固定资产占用有明显增加;考虑经济系统对生态系统的影响比仅考虑生态系统对经济系统投入时的资源乘数也有所增加;进一步考虑生态系统内部各成分之间的联系时,资源乘数又有所增加。     

模拟乘法器的教学方法探讨

本文推出了一种从特殊分析推理出乘法结论的方法，与通用教学方法相比，这种教学方法避开了复杂的数学推导，易于被学生接受，教学效果好，尤其适用于高等职业技术教学。     

用投入产出模型分析旅游对上海经济的影响

利用2002年上海市统计年鉴和投入产出表(1997年度.价值型)数据,用投入产出模型分析旅游对经济产出和收入的直接和乘数影响,计算出旅游产出乘数为2.8876,旅游收入乘数为0.6497,旅游消费引起产出增长的乘数效应主要集中在企业服务业、化学工业、商业、饮食业、旅客运输业等行业,然后将旅游乘数与已有研究的香港、新家坡、秦皇岛、天津市旅游乘数进行了比较,最后讨论了投入产出法和卫星帐户法在分析旅游经济影响方面的优缺点。     

智力劳动的分配决定效应及模型

随着知识的积累与科技的进步 ,智力密集型劳动已经替代体力密集型劳动成为价值的最主要源泉。智力劳动的特征使得凝结在产品中的劳动含量与智力投资呈正相关 ,进而与其所形成的智力劳动力价值呈正向相关。因此 ,提高智力劳动力价值在分配决定机制中的权重 ,相对于现行以工龄为主体的工资决定体制而言 ,更能体现按“能”付酬原则 ,更能体现生产力的进步对分配的决定作用。以简单劳动力价值确定最低工资水平 ,然后依据每一阶次的智力劳动力价值差别确定工资水平差别 ,更能推动智力投资与劳动力资源的合理配置。以智力劳动力价值为基础的工资分配制度 ,可界定为一个基于贴现理论的微观静态分配模型。     

Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries

In this article, we take account of an evaluation of the short- and medium-term effects of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries and their dependence on the state of the economy and fiscal behaviour. Our findings indicate that (i) across EU member states the impact of government spending on economic performance is larger in the accession than in core member states, (ii) since the onset of the economic/financial crisis the government spending multipliers have become larger in both core and accession EU member states, and (iii) a comparison with fiscal responses in the OECD countries shows robustness of our estimates. The conclusion implies that the austerity measures present a substantial drag for economic activity in accession EU countries. Thus, we may state that not considering the fiscal behaviour and state of the economy gives misleading fiscal multiplier effects, which in turn lead to the adoption of inappropriate fiscal measures that even worsen a country's economic situation.     

The Keynesian Multiplier Effect Reconsidered

In the standard Keynesian framework, government spending on useless public works has a larger multiplier effect than spending on government transfer payments does. In other words, spending on useless public works increases national income by more than an equivalent increase in government transfer payments would. Nevertheless, their effects on national benefit are identical. For both, the national benefit equals the direct benefit created by the spending. If there are two income classes, some transfers reduce both the national income and the national benefit. Some government purchases completely crowd out private consumption and reduce the national benefit.