A Bayesian analysis of a variance decomposition for stock returns

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.     

两合计划:从政府需要角度透视其职能转变

立足政府需要,从侧面对当前政府职能转变过程进行分析和探讨,希望以政府本身作为理性实体的运作为基础,对该问题进行解释。     

美国会计目标研究的历史考察及其对我们的启示

会计目标不仅是一个重要的理论问题,亦是一个重要的实际问题。美国是世界上研究会计目标最早、取得研究成果最丰富的国家之一。从美国会计学会1966年发表基本会计理论研究公告算起,美国从事会计目标研究已有30余年的历史。美国会计学会、会计原则委员会、特鲁布罗德委员会、财务会计准则委员会都对会计目标的研究作出过重要贡献,形成了像基本会计理论公告、APB第4号报告、特鲁布罗德报告和企业财务报告的目标等一系列研究成果。通过对美国会计目标研究历史的分析,我们从中可以得到如下三点启示: 第一,会计目标的研究与对会计本质的认识密不可分; 第二,会计目标研究应密切联系一定的社会经济环境; 第三,会计目标研究应采取理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法。     

我国会计学专业本科教育培养目标研究

会计教育培养目标作为会计教育实践的逻辑起点，对会计教育的发展方向和会计人才的培养起着制约作用，对会计教育实践活动起着支配、调节和控制作用。本文在对我国会计教育培养目标现状分析的基础上，从纵向（历史）和横向（国际）的角度探究了影响会计教育培养目标形成的因素和规律性，提出了构建会计教育培养目标的原则和我国会计教育培养目标的基本架构。     

The effect of exchange rate changes on trade balances in the short and long run

Using generalized impulse response functions, this study tests for the trade J‐curve for three transitional central European countries – the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland – in their bilateral trade with respect to Germany. Our findings suggest that for each country there are some characteristics associated with a J‐curve effect: after a (real or nominal) depreciation the export‐to‐import ratio briefly drops to below its initial value within a few months and then rises to a long run equilibrium value higher than the initial one.     

Strategizing through analyzing and influencing the network horizon

How does a firm keep on being valuable in a network? One requirement is that the firm has a sufficient overview of the network and its dynamics. In other words, a firm's strategy depends on the firm's overview of the network—its network horizon. How comprehensive or limited should its network horizon be? Is it necessary to know the network beyond the direct counterparts? Such issues have not received much attention. In this article, we discuss network horizons and argue that limited network horizons are both inevitable and useful. However, such myopia requires that a firm's counterparts effectively and efficiently mediate between the firm and the rest of the network. Based on a case study, we introduce and discuss three mediating functions of counterparts: a joining, a relating, and an insulating function, and we claim that in order to support a firm's strategizing, managers need to analyze and influence counterparts' mediating functions and thereby the firm's network horizon.     

从战略管理角度透视财务管理目标

运用战略管理的基本理论 ,在分析现行理论界关于财务管理目标的不足之处的基础上 ,提出了财务管理的新的目标———战略计划期利润最大化。     

会计基本准则中会计信息质量要求逻辑的思考

财政部于2006年2月15日正式发布了企业会计准则体系，并规定自2007年1月1日起在上市公司范围内施行。本次会计准则体系制定的主要思路之一是参照国际财务报告准则，并充分考虑中国现阶段的国情，以使按企业会计准则体系编制的财务报表能够更加真实、公允地反映企业的价值。基于这一出发点，企业会计准则体系在规范会计信息质量要求上实现了诸多突破。本文拟从基本会计准则的理论指导层面。分析这些突破的东龙去脉。并提出了封基本准则会计信息质量要求的不足和改进意见。     

完善城市整体功能是旧城改造的方向

城市的更新、改造是社会发展的必然 ,如何通过现状调查、分析、研讨 ,找出城市建设的症结 ,使城市趋于完美是城市建设者的历史使命。但现实中 ,片面追求经济效益 ,发旧城改造之财 ,只能使城市变成“崭新的旧城” ,只有按城市发展的固有规律去完善城市的整体功能才是旧城改造的发展方向。