TEN YEARS OF GENERAL OLIGOPOLISTIC EQUILIBRIUM: A SURVEY

In this paper, I survey the recent and rapidly increasing theoretical literature using the brand‐new approach in embedding oligopolistic competition in general equilibrium, as designed by J. Peter Neary. First, I introduce the reader to Neary's approach, by describing the main ingredients. Then, I present a comprehensive set of studies that, over the last decade, apply this approach in different contexts, most of which are in open economy, and I examine the relevant outcomes. Although the theoretical literature has generously advanced, there is a lack of research on the empirical side, which would be an important area for future research besides theoretical extensions, some of which I highlight in the conclusions.     

基于古诺模型的银行市场分析

运用寡头市场中的古诺模型来试图构建银行市场的竞争模型,分析市场变化的影响,找出银行业在各行业竞争中的最佳选择,并在此基础上判断我国银行市场未来发展的趋势,同时在银行市场行为方面提出正确应对外资银行的介入、积极维护存贷款市场业务等建议.     

寡头型一级土地供应、策略互动影响与财政调整——基于282个城市面板数据的动态空间计量

由土地资源属性和制度决定,国有土地供应出让中形成了受到土地利用规划约束和上级政府管制,由数百个城市寡头厂商组成的土地一级供应市场,并产生了诸多策略行为和机会主义做法。运用2003~2008年282个城市面板数据的动态空间计量模型,检验了城市政府围绕土地供应指标的策略互动影响及其与土地供应出让纯收益的数量关系,应据此构造目标供应量、实际收益和惩罚三者相结合的胡萝卜加大棒式重复博弈策略选择空间,以形成激励、约束地方政府改善土地供应的财政调整机制。     

享年次高的诺贝尔奖得主——新制度经济学大师罗纳德·科斯

1991年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、英国和美国(双重国籍)经济学家和法学家罗纳德·科斯是交易成本理论、科斯定理和科斯猜想的首创者,法律经济学和新制度经济学的开山鼻祖,产权理论和产权经济学的奠基人,他开启了产权理论、法律经济学和新制度经济学三个领域的研究方向。科斯是国际经济学界的泰斗级大师和巨匠,他在阐述经济组织产生的原理、交易成本分析以及推动法学、经济史和组织理论的发展方面作出重要贡献,发展了新古典经济学,开创了现代企业理论。科斯一生都关切和热爱中国,一直密切关注着中国的经济改革,其经济理论和深邃思想对中国的经济改革影响巨大而深远。     

“限广令”后的中国广告业猜想

2011年11月28日,广电总局下发《〈广播电视广告播出管理办法〉的补充规定》,决定自2012年1月1日起,全国各电视台播出电视剧时,每集电视剧中间不得再以任何形式插播广告。本文基于这项规定,探讨今后中国广告的发展趋势,提出了六大变化猜想,并阐述这些变化对不同主体带来的多赢可能性的假设。     

Trade liberalization,division of labor and welfare under oligopoly

Incorporating explicitly division of labor into a two-country general oligopolistic equilibrium model, we examine the effects of trade liberalization on firm productivity and welfare. We show that a tariff reduction increases the firm productivity of the trading industries but decreases that of the non-trading industries. An expansion of the trading industries, in contrast, decreases the firm productivity of both the trading and non-trading industries. We then find that a tariff reduction necessarily reduces welfare while the welfare effect of expansion of trading industries is ambiguous.     

Welfare-optimal trade and competition policies in small open oligopolistic economies

Standard trade theory claims that free trade is welfare-enhancing. We show that this is not the case if at least one sector of the economy is a Cournot oligopoly. In a simple small open economy with one oligopolistic and one competitive sector, welfare is an inverted U-shaped function of tariffs. Hence, an optimal tariff rate can be determined. The optimal rate depends on the number of firms in the oligopolistic sector. Below the optimal level, the competitive sector overproduces, i.e. oligopolistic good have a higher marginal effect on welfare. Increasing tariff rates stimulate the production of the oligopolistic sector by dampening imports. Under balanced trade, this reduces exports and production in the competitive sector, thus shifting resources to oligopolistic goods production. We also find that given certain levels of protection, perfect competition is not welfare maximal and, hence, not desirable. The finding explains why developing economies with imperfect competition are often reluctant to embrace trade liberalization and why, conversely, countries with high levels of external protection may be unenthusiastic about competition theory.     

ON BRÓDY'S CONJECTURE: THEORY,FACTS AND FIGURES ABOUT INSTABILITY OF THE US ECONOMY

Bródy's conjecture regarding the instability of economies is submitted to an empirical test using input–output flow tables of varying size for the US economy, for the benchmark years 1997 and 2002, as well as for the period 1998–2011. The results obtained using input–output tables of various dimensions lend support to the view of increasing instability (in the sense of Bródy) of the US economy over the period considered. Furthermore, our analysis shows that only a few vertically integrated industries are enough to shape the behaviour of the entire economy in the case of a disturbance. These results may usefully be contrasted with those derived in a parallel literature on aggregate fluctuations from microeconomic ‘idiosyncratic’ shocks.     

Rational Strategic Reasoning: An Unnatural Act?

We review recent literature on competitive reactions and strategic thinking and offer several observations. Evidence is mounting that strategic thinking is an unnatural act, made difficult by natural individual biases and organizational roadblocks. In addition, it is possible that uncertainty about competitive behavior is caused by and contributes to informal and incomplete competitive intelligence. We propose a simple model which suggests a potential path dependency in a firm's intelligence gathering, driven by the inertia of its past decision-making. Such a path dependency can be broken, however, as evidenced by several examples of firms who have overcome barriers to strategic thinking in creative ways. Paradoxically, though, there are circumstances in which competition is overemphasized in decision-making. Research priorities are discussed.     

Strategic Interaction in the Dutch Market for Consumer Magazines

Information goods such as newspapers and magazines have a number of distinct economic characteristics such as a high fixed cost – low marginal (variable) cost structure and the possibility to subsidize content through selling advertising space. We develop a simple one-shot duopoly model that analyses strategic interaction in a market with such features. We focus on the firms best responses and test the theoretical predictions of the model empirically by panel regression techniques using a balanced panel data set of 60 Dutch consumer magazines over the period 1991–1998. Our 3SLS estimation results confirm the prediction of our model that the Dutch market for consumer magazines is characterized by strategic complementarity between magazine and ad prices.