我国农村金融市场的区域比较与改革研究——基于六县市实地调研数据分析

如何破解"中国农村金融之谜",为发展现代农业扎实推进社会主义新农村建设提供必要的金融支持,近年来成为了国内学者关注的热点。本文基于六县市的实地调研,通过对中国农村金融困境的现实考察和区域比较,可得出如下主要结论:经济发达地区信用社的股份制改革不仅可满足当地市场化农户的融资需求,而且为非正规金融演变创造了条件;而落后地区信用社应坚持合作制取向并加强与非正规金融的垂直联接。     

Time,Arbitrage, and the Law of One Price: The Case for a Paradigm Shift

Consider a Competitive, Efficient, and Frictionless Economy (CEFE) where resources are scarce at any date, and hence money as a valid claim against scarce resources is also scarce. In this economy, there is always price competition, which can at any date generate an unlimited number of arbitrage opportunities. For example, at any date, opportunities can exist to buy and sell each one of the contracts for delivery of the same good or asset at multiple prices currently as well as on an infinite number of future dates. I prove all arbitrage transactions, including “spot” transactions, tie up arbitrageurs’ capital representing money, good or asset such that this capital cannot be used for any other purpose for a non-zero quantity of time. This makes it impossible to exploit all arbitrage opportunities with the scarce capital available at any date and leads to an infinite number of unexploited opportunities and a non-negligible opportunity cost of the capital tied-up in arbitrage transactions, represented by each arbitrageur’s best missed arbitrage opportunity, if no better opportunity exits, hence the breakdown of the law of one price in its standard sense. This helps construct a new paradigm of CEFE which resolves long-standing theoretical, empirical, and experimental puzzles.     

"行为公设"对资产定价理论发展的作用

本文以“行为公设”与资产定价理论的相互关系为线索,试图理清资产定价理论发展的轨迹,重点论述了资产定价理论各发展阶段与行为公设的逻辑关系以及各种观点与行为公设的相互关系。结果表明,使用行为公设概念,不仅能够很好地描绘出资产定价理论的发展轨迹,增进对资产定价理论发展过程及其内在逻辑的理解,而且能够澄清各种争论的根源。本文的基本结论是：行为公设是资产定价理论体系的基石,它对资产定价理论的发展起着不可替代的作用。     

Inflation and output in New Keynesian models with a transient interest rate peg

A familiar result in the canonical Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model is that policymakers constrained by the zero bound can improve outcomes by promising to keep rates low after the zero bound is not binding. We examine a general class of interest rate pegs in a variety of DNK models. Standard versions of the model produce counterintuitive reversals where the effect of the interest rate peg can switch from highly expansionary to highly contractionary for modest changes in the length of the interest rate peg. This unusual behavior does not arise in sticky information models of the Phillips curve.     

知识密集型服务的定价困惑与解惑

作为当今服务行业的一个重要分支,知识密集型服务因在服务提供过程中溶入大量专业知识而饱含特色.特色的产品总会引发一系列的特殊管理难题,如何科学定价就是其中之一.文章在简介知识密集型服务的内涵与特征的基础上,剖析其所面临的定价困惑,并推荐了基于成本的、基于竞争的及基于顾客价值的定价法等,这些行之有效的定价策略将对定价决策者有所启示与帮助.     

会计本科专业实习的困惑与出路

随着大众化教育带来的学生规模的急剧扩大,专业实习的实践资源相对紧缺,目前本科院校存在以下问题：专业实习比较随意,且与其他实践之间缺乏连续性,学生也缺乏对专业实习的清晰认识。造成这些困惑的原因：学校对经管实验室或财会实训基地的硬件投入不足。专业实训资源缺乏有效的整合。相关企业动力不足。其出路是：树立全过程的专业实践教学观,建设本科院校自己的专业实训基地,设立校内经营性实训场所,积极建立校外实训基地。     

Firms' entry,monetary policy and the international business cycle

This paper proposes a two-country monetary model with firm entry as a means for alleviating the comovement puzzles in international business cycle models. It shows that business formation can generate fluctuations in output, employment, investment and trade flows close to those in the data while at the same time providing positive international comovements. Simulations show that the presence of imported investment goods is essential for replicating these facts.     

Anchoring-Adjusted Option Pricing Models

Relying on a useful starting point and attempting to adjust it appropriately is a robust human decision-making heuristic. Evidence suggests that underlying stock volatility is such a starting point, which is scaled up to estimate call option volatility. The author adjusts the Black-Scholes, Heston, and Bates models for reliance on this starting point. The adjustment mechanism captures several option-return puzzles. The adjusted Black-Scholes generates implied-volatility skew. The adjusted Heston stochastic-volatility model matches the same data better, does so at more plausible parameter values, and generates a steep short-term skew. Furthermore, 2 novel predictions are empirically tested and strongly supported in the data.     

PRECAUTIONARY SAVING: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE

Standard macroeconomic models show that uncertainty plays a significant role in consumption and saving decisions under rather mild conditions, namely the convexity of the marginal utility of consumption. Increased uncertainty generates a positive extra saving, the so‐called ‘precautionary saving’. Although this hypothesis has been tested by a large number of authors, both at macro and micro level, the empirical results are not conclusive, and the main conclusion than can be drawn is that there is neither consensus on the intensity of that motive for saving, nor on the most appropriate measure of uncertainty. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the empirical literature discussing the main controversial issues and the different approaches followed by the studies addressing empirically the test of precautionary saving.     

Probability weighting and default risk: a possible explanation for distressed stock puzzles

This paper suggests incorporating investor probability weighting and the default risk of individual firms into a consumption-based asset pricing model. The extended model provides a unified explanation for several anomalous patterns observed in financial markets. The analysis addresses not only widely recognized asset pricing puzzles, such as the equity premium puzzle, but also less-studied anomalies on financially distressed stocks. The simulation, under which the model is calibrated according to U.S. historical data, shows that a combination of mild overweighting of probability on tail events and nonlinearity of equity values caused by default risk has the potential to resolve these patterns.