Media-Based Sentiment Indices as an Alternative Measure of Consumer Confidence

In this paper, we consider the feasibility of constructing online sentiment indices, using large amounts of media data, as an alternative to the conventional survey method used to create the consumer confidence index in South Africa. A clustering framework is adopted to provide an indication of possible candidate sentiment indices constructed from a combination of different text sources and dictionaries that best mimic the traditional survey-based consumer confidence index from the South African Bureau for Economic Research (BER). The results conclude that it is possible to create an index using sentiment analysis using online editorial data that does resemble the BER’s consumer confidence index. The different media-based sentiment indices (MSI) show a significant level of correlation and co-movement with the BER’s CCI. Impulse responses and cross-correlation functions indicate that the MSI could potentially lead the survey-based method up to two quarters. Furthermore, Granger-causality tests show that the media-based indices are good predictors of future consumer confidence index values. The results provide motivation for further study on the use of sentiment-based techniques and online media data sources to track consumer confidence within an emerging market such as South Africa.     

企业知识管理绩效综合评价案例研究

知识管理是现代企业管理的重要内容。正确分析和评价企业的知识管理绩效，对于促进企业知识管理、提高企业知识管理水平以及增强企业竞争优势，具有重要的现实意义。文章构建了企业知识管理绩效评价的指标体系，并运用模糊综合评价模型对企业知识管理绩效进行了综合评价。     

高速公路建设生态环境影响评价指标体系研究

随着高速公路建设如火如荼的进行,总里程的不断增加,它对生态环境的影响与破坏愈来愈严重,所以有必要进行高速公路生态环境影响评价研究。文章通过对高速公路建设项目生态环境影响评价指标筛选原则、指标初选、指标体系确立的具体分析与研究,完成了高速公路建设项目生态环境影响评价指标体系的研究。     

Terrorism activities and long-term annual management forecasts

We study the effects of terrorist attacks on firms’ long-term annual management earnings forecasts bias. We find that the managers of firms located closer to the epicenters of attacks are more likely to issue optimistic long-term annual earnings forecasts relative to the managers of a control group of unaffected firms. The exposure effect is stronger for more severe terrorist events, and firms with more uncertain fundamentals and less geographic diversification. In addition, we document that managers’ forecast optimism intensifies for firms with stronger negative stock market reaction to the terrorist event, for CEOs with higher ability and for companies that are more likely to issue equity or engage in acquisitions following the terrorist event. Overall, our results are consistent with the idea that long-term annual earnings forecasts are used by managers to counterbalance the short-term pessimistic response to terrorist attacks.     

矿区生态系统健康评价理论与方法初探

总结国内外有关生态系统健康理论与评价方法的研究现状及最新成果,界定矿区生态系统健康的内涵,分析影响矿区生态系统健康的原因,论述矿区生态系统健康评价指标体系与评价方法。     

中国政府统计抽样调查制度的总体框架研究

随着中国市场经济体制的逐步确立,政府的职能在逐渐转变,政府对统计数据的要求也在变化,这就要求政府统计调查制度也随之改革。适应市场经济体制和中国政府管理的特点以及城乡统筹发展的要求,政府统计调查应该以抽样调查为主体,抽样调查队伍和机构应主要设立在地市一级,调查的指标体系和内容应该改革与调整,企业抽样调查应该采用名单框和区域框结合的双框抽样方式。对于抽样调查得到的数据资料,不仅应当汇总得出各种可用于宏观经济管理与分析的总量指标数据和分类数据,而且还应当建立起全部被调查企业和被调查家庭的数据库,供政府部门和国内的科学研究机构进行微观社会经济活动主体层次的研究。     

关于构建企业集团财务综合评价系统的思考

财务综合评价是以企业集团财务报告反映的财务指标为主要依据，对企业集团的财务状况和经营成果进行评价和剖析，反映企业集团在运营中的利弊得失、财务状况及发展趋势，为改进企业集团财务管理工作和优化经济决策提供重要的财务信息。企业集团可以从财务效益、偿债能力、营运能力、发展能力等四个方面建立全面完整的财务综合评价系统。     

中国上市公司盈利能力模型分析

传统财务评价方法一般只选取会计利润指标,对上市公司经营业绩的评价存在局限.而运用因子分析法建立的综合评价模型,其客观赋权的多指标分析方法有利于避免指标排序及其权重选择的主观性,同时这种综合方法在传统比率分析体系中加入了现金流量指标,使评价更趋全面、合理,因而优于传统的企业盈利能力评价模型.     

财务预警模型综述

财务预警模型是指借助企业财务指标和非财务指标体系来判别企业财务状况的模型。它通常包括以下六类 :一元判定模型 (Univariate)、多元判定模型 (MDA)、多元逻辑 (Logit)回归模型、多元概率比 (Probit)回归模型、人工网络 (ANN)模型和联合预测模型。通过对财务预警模型进行回顾和评述 ,可以拓展财务预警研究的视野 ,便于我们在借鉴前人思路和方法的基础上进行更深入的研究。     

我国股改中权证的价格泡沫及影响因素

本文针对我国股改中的百慕大权证提出了新的“模拟树-市场情绪”定价模型。该模型的实证研究结果表明中国权证市场价格存在严重高估;加入市场情绪指标后,通过建立多元回归模型得到了对于实际价格的显著的拟合结果,有力地解释了超出权证理论价格的实际价格所包含的情绪因素。本文最后对权证价格高估的原因及权证未来的走势进行了分析。