2005年人民币汇率制度改革效应实证分析

本文发现，迄今为止人民币汇率的走势实际上是一个有“突变”现象的“随机游走”过程，这种“突变”可以解释为在严格外汇管制条件下人民币长期积聚的升值压力的一次释放；特别地，2005年7月21日的汇率改革是卓有成效的，它通过加快进口增长和减缓出口增长弱化了人民币进一步升值的压力。文章进而指出，在有效监控投机资金和预防投机冲击的国内机制建立之前，“爬行式钉住汇率”是我国当前汇率政策的最佳选择，而不是简单地放宽人民币对美元汇率的浮动范围。     

Which Net Capital Flows Matter?

This article classifies extreme net capital flow episodes into four types and analyzes the macroeconomic impacts of each type. First, we find that all types of episodes increased drastically in the 2000s relative to previous years. Second, we conclude that liability-flow-driven episodes have more significant macroeconomic impacts than do asset-flow-driven episodes. Third, we show that only drastic positive net capital flows that were driven by liability flows were associated with a higher probability of banking crises in the 2000s. The results suggest that the detailed classification of extreme net capital flows provides insight into these movements’ macroeconomic impacts and policy implementations.     

部队处置突发事件信息安全管理对策研究

通过搞好信息安全教育、完善信息安全管理机制、增加信息安全管理的科技力量等措施,确保信息管理安全可靠。     

一种基于ISD1760的公交车语音报站系统设计

设计了一种基于ISD1760语音芯片的公交车语音报站演示系统。主控芯片采用了基于首款采用ARM cortex M3内核的stellaris系列中具有代表性的LM3S811,通过ISD1760的独立按键模式录制语音信息,然后利用ISD1760的SSI模式接口和LM3S811同步串行端口连接通信,实现语音芯片按照主控芯片发送的信息组合语音片段,让语音芯片一定逻辑播放语音提示信息。搭建并调试了电路,结果表明,该系统能准确的进行语音报站。     

Airport stops and flights on small airplanes as inhibitors of tourism-related air travel: A case study

This article discusses the extent to which prospective tourists' concerns about airport stops and flights on small airplanes inhibit air travel to tourist destinations, drawing on data from telephone surveys conducted in the Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas area. Respondents were queried about the extent to which one airport stop, two airport stops, and one airport stop followed by a flight on a small, propeller-powered airplane, respectively, would deter them from flying to a destination 1096 miles (1764 km) away. Findings suggest that marketers of similar destinations in similarly distant markets that are accessible by air only after two airport stops risk having their promotional appeals ignored by roughly half those who would prefer to reach such destinations by air. Moreover, those most concerned about such flight schedules were more likely than other respondents to have high incomes and to use the Internet to obtain vacation or travel information.     

Is the Euro-zone on the Mend? Latin American examples to analyze the Euro question

Several European countries face challenges reminiscent of those faced by the emerging economies of Latin America. The economic booms in some peripheral Euro-zone countries financed by large capital inflows; the credit and asset price booms and then the busts including Sudden Stops in capital flows; the strong interaction between sovereign debt and domestic banking systems; the role of foreign banks and contagion; and all in the context of a fixed exchange rate, are familiar plotlines for Latin American audiences. For those Euro-zone countries that built up large Euro-denominated external liabilities, Latin America’s experience is particularly relevant and worrisome. Still, Europe may be in a better position to navigate a path out of the crisis given cooperative mechanisms that were absent in Latin America, particularly the availability of massive liquidity support. Nonetheless, while such support buys time, it does not guarantee success. This paper argues that reflecting on Latin America’s experience provides useful lessons for Europe to improve the chances for a successful resolution.     

一起突发性地表水环境污染监测案例的分析与思考

针对发生在石家庄灵寿县境内的一起突发性地表水环境污染事件,介绍了石家庄市环境监测中心采取的现场勘查、监测、采样和处置等应急处理措施,就建立科学的应急监测管理机制提出建议:1)加强河流跨界交汇断面的监测;2)提高地表水生物监测技术水平;3)组建一支专业的污染事件应急监测队伍。     

突发性水污染事故应急监测体系的研究

目前,我国已进入水污染事故的高发期.应急监测体系作为突发性水污染事故处理的重要组成部分,对突发性水污染事故应急监测具有指导作用.通过对突发性水污染事故应急监测体系建设的研究,将监测体系分为应急监测预案、装备体系、技术体系、能力体系、信息体系5个部分,为我国突发性水污染事故的监测和管理提供了一种思路.     

Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets

We evaluate whether financial openness leaves emerging market economies vulnerable to the adverse effects of capital reversals (“sudden stops”) on domestic investment. We investigate this claim in a broad sample of emerging markets during the period 1976–2002. If the banking sector does not experience a systemic crisis, sudden stop events fail to have a significant impact on investment. Bank crises, on the other hand, have a significant negative effect on investment even in the absence of a contemporaneous sudden stop crisis. We also find that openness to capital flows worsens the adverse impact of banking crises on investment. Our results provide statistical support for the policy view that a strong banking sector which can withstand the negative fallout of capital flight is essential for countries that open their economies to international financial flows.     

处置突发危机事件的策略研究

近年来,随着我国社会经济的迅猛发展,突发危机事件的发生率也在上升。如何处置突发危机事件?成为各级公安机关领导面对的紧迫课题。在此,笔者对突发危机事件的特征及如何处置突发事件进行论析,以求起到抛砖引玉之效。本文论述了突发危机事件的特征及其产生的原因,并指出了应对突发危机事件的策略和技巧,对提高公安领导处置突发危机事件的能力有所裨益。