Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

对小地区失业统计差额比的推定

本文对韩国国内行政区域如市郡区等小地区的失业统计共同差额比进行推定的方法有联合推定量,Woolf推定量和Mantel-Haenszel推定量等。对这个推定量的可信度是通过偏差和平均平方误差的概念来进行比较的。从对京畿地区经济活动人口调查情况看,这个地区内的24个市郡单位行政自治地区的男、女失业率差额比的偏差及平均平方误差是通过本次研究提出的推定程序来推定的。这些推定数的稳定性和效率性可以通过相对偏差和相对平均误差平方根来评价。Woolf推定量或Mantel-Haenszel推定量比联合推定量更为稳定,从其效率性来看三者很相似。     

Tinbergen in De Economist

Jan Tinbergen's scientific writings cover six main areas of research. His articles in De Economist represent these areas; in some cases the contributions to De Economist were of a pioneering nature (business cycles, economic models, economic integration); in others De Economist was the first or even single outlet for Tinbergen's work. This article provides an overview of these contributions. The wide scope of Tinbergen's areas of research goes together with a unity in approach, the characteristics of which are: policy relevance, quantification and measurement, balance in analysis and presentation, and learning from experience. Tinbergen's articles in De Economist bear witness to this approach which at the time also met with scepticism and resistance as this overview shows. According to Houthakker, Tinbergen's main contribution may be that, amidst the pleas of interest groups and the slogans of the laity, an attempt is made that the voice of the professional economic researcher be heard. Tinbergen's work still sets an agenda for both economic research and policy making.     

我国产权制度的变迁及其趋势

我国私营经济是在传统的公有制经济的土壤中发展起来的,其发展必然与传统体制发生摩擦与冲突。本文总结了我国产权制度变革的路径,分析了影响私营经济可持续发展的产权制度障碍,根据我国产权制度改革的轨迹,预测了产权制度变迁的趋势和特征。     

汽车厂商的价格行为分析

企业家的价格策略必须要考虑企业竞争目标的选择、市场供需的变化和企业的成本，产品的成本为价格规定了最低限度，消费者对产品价值的评估和理解为价格规定了最高限度。     

普京时期俄罗斯经济政策的调整

近年来俄罗斯经济迅速复苏，引起了许多学者的广泛兴趣。有观点认为，这是1990年代实施激进式制度变迁的后期效应显现。本文不敢苟同，通过对俄罗斯制度变迁的整个历史演化的分析，采用比较制度分析的方法，说明了俄罗斯在1990年代移植西方市场经济正式制度的过程中遇到俄罗斯本土的非正式制度的严格约束，使得移植来的正式制度失灵。这一教训使得俄罗斯进入新世纪以后重新审视了俄罗斯自身的制度环境，把市场经济和民主制度与俄罗斯的现实结合起来，调整经济政策，加强国家的作用，确定了“可控的民主”和“可控的市场经济”模式，并取得了显著的成效。     

奥肯定律与扩大的奥肯模型估计——关于中国就业与经济增长的数量关系实证(1978-2003)

奥肯定律表明与正常的(或潜在的或趋势的)增长率相比,高产出增长伴随着失业率的降低,低产出增长伴随着失业率的上升.作为一种经验规律,奥肯定律在西方很多国家的实践中得到了良好的验证.本文根据1978年以来中国的宏观经济统计数据进行模型回归检验,结果显示我国城镇登记失业率的变化与实际产出增长率之间不存在典型的奥肯规律.由于我国公开的失业率并不能反映真实的市场失业率,为此用就业量代替失业率,建立扩大的奥肯模型,分别对我国第一、二和三产业的就业增长与经济增长的数量关系进行估计.实证的结果显示我国第二、三产业的就业增长与产出增长和物价上涨均为正相关;而我国农业的就业增长与产出增长存在负相关.     

企业家与企业文化建设

企业家创造了企业积极向上的价值观、经营理念、管理文化、制度文化和行为文化。企业家通过调节、控制、角色示范、挑选员工、任用干部、分配报酬、借用“外脑”等途径和方法 ,传播和增强优秀企业文化。企业家面对环境的变化和知识经济的挑战 ,应把握好企业运行的方向 ,积极地变革企业文化 ,扬弃制约企业创新的行为惯性 ,再造全新的企业 ,从而增强企业文化的竞争优势。     

Labor unemployment risk and firm risk

This paper examines the effect of labor unemployment risk on firm risk. Using unemployment insurance benefits as a proxy for unemployment risk, we find an economically significant positive relation between unemployment risk and firm risk. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms that are more labor-intensive, have a higher layoff propensity and are more financially constrained. While existing literature that employs corporate policy measures such as debt and cash holdings suggests an opposite relationship, our paper presents evidence that the effects stemming from earnings management, earnings quality and reporting quality appear to dominate.