Value of hedge and expected returns

We demonstrate how it is possible to generate value for an investor with a hedge attached to the buy-and-hold strategy of an S&P 500 index fund. We study the S&P 500 index portfolio (not including dividends) and the value-weighted S&P 500 index portfolio (including dividends) of the Center for Research in Securities Prices for 1967:01–2011:12, using the capacity utilization and the unemployment rates in real time to determine if a hedge position should be initiated or closed. A hedge is initiated if the capacity utilization, the unemployment rate or a combination of the two signals a contraction in the real economy. The hedge position is closed if it signals otherwise an expansion. We use utility gains (Campbell and Thompson 2008), the manipulation-proof performance measure (MPPM) statistics (Ingersoll et al. 2007) and the P-Sharpe ratio (Bailey and López de Prado 2012) to evaluate the performance of a particular hedge strategy. The empirical results show that there are infinitely many hedges that can generate positive utility gains, higher MPPM statistics and higher P-Sharpe ratios.     

考虑市值权重的IPO长期业绩研究

IPO长期业绩的早期研究以算术平均的累计调整收益率为指标，发现我国新股存在着长期超额报酬。而本文采用更能反映IPO市场构成的流通市值加权法计算新股上市后三年的累计调整收益率，发现就整体来看，新股存在着长期业绩不佳的特征，进一步的研究揭示结果差异的原因所在。