Operational risk quantified with spectral risk measures: a refined closed-form approximation

The quantification of operational risk has become an important issue as a result of the new capital charges required by the Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) to cover the potential losses of this type of risk. In this paper, we investigate second-order approximation of operational risk quantified with spectral risk measures (OpSRMs) within the theory of second-order regular variation (2RV) and second-order subexponentiality. The result shows that asymptotically two cases (the fast convergence case and the slow convergence) arise depending on the range of the second-order parameter. We also show that the second-order approximation under 2RV is asymptotically equivalent to the slow convergence case. A number of Monte Carlo simulations for a range of empirically relevant frequency and severity distributions are employed to illustrate the performance of our second-order results. The simulation results indicate that our second-order approximations tend to reduce the estimation errors to a great degree, especially for the fast convergence case, and are able to capture the sub-extremal behavior of OpSRMs better than the first-order approximation. Our asymptotic results have implications for the regulation of financial institutions, and may provide further insights into the measurement and management of operational risk.     

企业持续成长模式探讨——“变异”与持续成长

本文讨论了企业的持续成长模式．在借鉴生物生存机理的基础上．提出了“前变异”与“后变异”的概念．认为“前变异”是企业获取突破性技术的基本模式．“前变异”具有随机性和无指向性的特点．企业中大量存在的非分工合作是产生“前变异”的基础。     

福州市旅游客流量现状及其驱动因素

旅游客流量是衡量区域旅游业及旅游经济发展快慢的一个重要指标,也是反映旅游区景观质量好坏与综合服务水平高低的一个综合指标。文章依据福州市最近5年(1999—2003年)的旅游客流量及相关的社会经济数据,分年度、季度、月与黄金周等不同时段对近年来福州市区域旅游客流量的现状及其变动状况进行分析,并从旅游景区(点)内在的引力因素与外在的社会环境驱动因素两方面对影响福州市客流量的主要驱动因素进行了分析。     

Time variation in the cointegrating relationship between stock prices and economic activity

The present paper examines whether there exists a long‐run cointegrating relationship between a stock market index and output and interest rates. Moreover, estimation is conducted over the full sample and both a recursive and rolling sample to examine any time variation in the nature of the relationship. The results support evidence of a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices typically exhibit a positive relationship with industrial production and a negative relationship with interest rates. However, there is significant time variation and periods of time where contrary results are observed. As such any model of stock prices needs to account for such time variation     

论如何加强设计变更控制

设计变更是工程变更的一部分内容，它关系到工程的进度、质量和投资控制。有效地对设计变更进行管理是确保工程质量和工期、控制工程造价的途径之一。在工程项目建设过程中需要加强设计变更的控制。从不同角度分析了设计变更出现的原因，提出应规范各参与单位的行为，提高变更管理水平。     

设计-施工总承包模式在南京地铁盾构工程中应用

设计—施工总承包模式的特点和优点已经得到业界的广泛认同，但该模式目前在我国成功应用的例子还不是很多。通过对南京地铁盾构工程在不同承包模式下合同支付费用变更的研究，分析了设计—施工总承包模式在该工程中应用的优越性，并进一步对城市轨道交通建设中复杂、特殊工程的承包模式提出了建议。     

Do monetary subjective well-being evaluations vary across space? Comparing continuous and discrete spatial heterogeneity

Using subjective well-being estimations, this study analyzes whether compensating variations vary across space using a cross-sectional data set from Chile. To achieve this goal, it describes and compares two econometric ways of modelling unobserved spatial heterogeneity. Both approaches allow compensating variations to vary across spatial units by assuming some distribution a priori. One method assumes that the spatial heterogeneity can be represented by a discrete distribution (a group of regions that share the same coefficient) and the other that the preferences can be represented by a continuous distribution (each region has a different coefficient). The results show that focusing just on the average estimates of compensating variations, as the applied studies have done so far, masks useful local variation. More empirical studies are needed to assess the advantages and disadvantages of both econometric approaches and how their results compare across a wide range of conditions and samples.     

Reactive or proactive? Investor sentiment as a driver of corporate social responsibility

Investors and financial markets have been a neglected stakeholder group in studies on a firm’s motivations to be socially and environmentally responsible. Despite being a strong driving force behind firm value, no study has investigated the influence of market and investor sentiments on CSR behaviour. Using a global sample, we investigate the effects of market and investor sentiments on firm CSR performance. We find negative market and investor sentiments in the prior year motivate firms to improve their CSR performance in the next year. We also find the magnitude of improvement in CSR performance differs not only by country, but by CSR sub-category as well. These findings imply that a firm’s motivation to improve its CSR performance is reactionary, rather than being driven by altruism. Regulators and proponents of CSR should thus seek to persuade investors and financial markets to put pressure on firms to further advance the CSR agenda.     

Exploring Value‐Based Management Sophistication: The Role of Potential Economic Benefits and Institutional Influence

The complexity of value‐based management (VBM) is often not captured in empirical research. In particular, potential differences in the extent of VBM implementation are not considered. Firms are predominantly classified dichotomously into either VBM “adopters” or “non‐adopters.” In this study, we aim to fill this gap by introducing a framework to assess differences in the extent of VBM implementation (VBM‐sophistication) based on publicly available data. This approach enables us to study determinants of VBM‐sophistication based on a hand‐collected data set comprising 2,683 firm‐year observations from 16 European countries between 2005 and 2014. Specifically, we investigate (i) whether potential economic benefits associated with VBM implementation lead to a higher level of VBM‐sophistication, and (ii) if this relation is influenced by extra‐organizational institutions (e.g., industry norms). Our results indicate that companies exhibit higher VBM‐sophistication if certain firm characteristics that increase the potential economic benefits of VBM are present. Moreover, our study provides evidence that this effect is enhanced by extra‐organizational institutions that pressure and support firms in realizing the potential benefits of higher VBM‐sophistication.     

Assessing Variability of Complex Descriptive Statistics in Monte Carlo Studies Using Resampling Methods

Good statistical practice dictates that summaries in Monte Carlo studies should always be accompanied by standard errors. Those standard errors are easy to provide for summaries that are sample means over the replications of the Monte Carlo output: for example, bias estimates, power estimates for tests and mean squared error estimates. But often more complex summaries are of interest: medians (often displayed in boxplots), sample variances, ratios of sample variances and non‐normality measures such as skewness and kurtosis. In principle, standard errors for most of these latter summaries may be derived from the Delta Method, but that extra step is often a barrier for standard errors to be provided. Here, we highlight the simplicity of using the jackknife and bootstrap to compute these standard errors, even when the summaries are somewhat complicated. © 2014 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2014 International Statistical Institute