包容性发展:困境与选择

包容性发展就是那种能够兼顾人与自然、人与人的关系,实现两种关系的正和博弈,同时恰当地把握现在与未来之间均衡的发展。它要求一是在人与自然的关系维度上,寻求经济增长与环境保护的统一;二是在人与人的关系维度上,增长和发展的成果必须为所有社会成员所分享,一部分人的状况得到改善不能以牺牲另一部分人的利益为代价;三是在资源配置和收益分配方面,必须维持资源和发展成果在同代人之间的可共享性;四是必须在当代人同后代人之间实现资源和收益上的均衡和兼顾,不能以牺牲后代人发展的机会和能力为代价来满足当代人的需要。     

地缘经济时代的科技博弈

21世纪经济全球化的加速掩饰不了地缘经济博弈的零和色彩,尤其是大国之间在科技领域的较量越来越表面化。地缘经济时代的科技博弈主要表现在四个方面,即科技制高点博弈、信息技术博弈、情报监控博弈与人才资源博弈。较之于其他经济领域,科技博弈更有零和色彩,对此中国有必要未雨绸缪。     

How to Manage the ＂New Age＂ Employee

This paper explains why as a manager employing recent Chinese University graduates cannot manage them using traditional management styles. Management is very similar to a negotiation. The manager must change their ＂negotiation style＂ to manage their Chinese graduates into a valuable addition to their enterprise.     

新型大国关系与全球资源治理：以动态资源关系理论为视角

资源关系是中美关系的重要内容。新型大国关系精神在资源领域的反映,就是发展中美间的非零和资源关系。如果中美坚持从非零和资源关系观念出发,处理相互间资源关系,资源替代性手段会加快出现,两国乃至世界的资源状况会改善,同时中美间新型大国关系会获得一根坚固、有力的支柱。反之,两国乃至全球的资源困境会加剧,同时中美新型大国关系的前景会受到严重威胁。中美两国领导层应从非零和的资源关系观和新型大国关系精神出发,通过双边和多边的方式,积极推进资源合作、消弭资源冲突。     

Repeated two-person zero-sum games with unequal discounting and private monitoring

We consider discounted repeated two-person zero-sum games with private monitoring. We show that even when players have different and time-varying discount factors, each player’s payoff is equal to his stage-game minmax payoff in every sequential equilibrium. Furthermore, we show that: (a) in every history on the equilibrium path, the pair formed by each player’s conjecture about his opponent’s action must be a Nash equilibrium of the stage game, and (b) the distribution of action profiles in every period is a correlated equilibrium of the stage game. In the particular case of public strategies in public monitoring games, players must play a Nash equilibrium after any public history.     

On the Irrelevance of Risk Attitudes in Repeated Two-Outcome Games

We study equilibrium and maximin play in supergames consisting of the sequential play of a finite collection of stage games, where each stage game has two outcomes for each player. We show that for two-player supergames in which each stage game is strictly competitive, in any Nash equilibrium of the supergame, play at each stage is a Nash equilibrium of the stage game provided preferences over certain supergame outcomes satisfy a natural monotonicity condition. In particular, equilibrium play does not depend on risk attitudes. We establish an invariance result for games with more than two players when the solution concept is subgame perfection. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C9.     

Re-examination of team’s play in a mixed-strategy game experiment

Palacios-Huerta and Volij (2008) found that the behaviour of professional soccer players in two-person zero-sum games is consistent with minimax play, while Wooders (2010) re-examined their data and found inconsistencies in several respects. This study applies a similar analysis of Wooders (2010) to the experimental data in Okano (2013), which found that the behaviour of teams of two-student subjects conforms closely to minimax play, and addresses whether teams exhibit the same inconsistencies as professionals. Teams were found to have consistency with minimax play, with no tendencies similar to those of professionals.     

城市房屋拆迁补偿不足的经济分析

以城市房屋拆迁补偿问题为研究对象,在纵观国内外城市拆迁补偿实践的基础上,结合序数效用论探究了拆迁冲突频发的原因在于拆迁补偿不足,被拆迁人效用的降低。运用零和博弈的分析手段,揭示了拆迁补偿不足背后的深层社会现象:拆迁人利用其资源和信息等方面的绝对优势来侵占处于弱势地位的被拆迁人利益,说明该博弈的占优策略使得拆迁双方都不能得益,必须通过政策干预来影响博弈可能的解。结合研究结论,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Tote arbitrage and lock opportunities in racetrack betting

A game-theoretic approach to the investigation of arbitrage opportunities based on combinations of exotic wagers for the same event is described. This situation is also known as a ‘lock’ or ‘Dutch Book’. The technique is applied to recent totalizator data from Australian thoroughbred races. It appears that such opportunities appear fairly regularly, at least according to published final dividends for various bet types. The method is demonstrated in some detail on a particular example.     

资源政治的演化差异

人类社会的延续和发展离不开自然资源。在经济发展和人口增长的过程中,资源短缺现象越来越多地出现。对人类与资源的关系的理解可分为两类:资源悲观主义和资源乐观主义。这两类观点尽管尖锐对立,但它们有一个共同缺陷,即它们的论述都基于某一种基本假定,而这种假定只是有些时候才符合实际情况。针对已有资源关系理论的不足,作者提出了动态资源关系理论,认为人类与资源的关系取决于人类的选择。如果人们从零和的资源关系观念出发,进行资源对抗,那么资源替代性手段的出现会受到阻碍,资源问题的零和后果会出现。相反,如果人们在资源问题上从非零和(正和)的观念出发,开展资源合作,这会促进资源替代性手段的利用,非零和(正和)的结果就会出现。根据动态资源关系理论,作者认为,即使资源出现严重短缺,人们如果应对得当,仍然可以争取到很好的资源结果。由于经济增长较快,中国不得不越来越多地寻求海外资源供应。在此过程中,中国如何能获得最佳的资源结果?动态资源关系理论能为此提供一个新思路。