Risk analysis of the EASA minimum fuel requirements considering the ACARE-defined safety target

We present the results of flight simulator experiments (60 runs) with randomly selected airline pilots under realistic operational conditions and discuss them in light of current fuel regulations and potential fuel starvation. The experiments were conducted to assess flight crew performance in handling complex technical malfunctions including decision-making in fourth-generation jet aircraft. Our analysis shows that the current fuel requirements of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) are not sufficient to guarantee the safety target of the Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe (ACARE), which is less than one accident in 10 million flights. To comply with this safety target, we recommend increasing the Final Reserve Fuel from 30 min to 45 min for jet aircraft. The minimum dispatched fuel upon landing should be at least 1 h.     

日本福岛核泄漏事件风险评估

本文分析了日本福岛第一核电站核泄漏的情况和放射性物质可能扩散到我国的途径,并对日本福岛核泄漏事件对我国的影响进行了风险评估。最后结论为：根据目前的情况,日本福岛核泄漏事件不会危害我国公民的健康。     

各类火灾探测器原理分析及应用探讨

火灾探测器能在火灾发生初期,将燃烧物产生的烟雾、热量、火焰等物理量变成电信号传输到火灾报警控制器,是现代消防系统的核心部件。文章通过对各类火灾探测器的工作原理进行分析,并对其应用场合进行探讨,为火灾自动报警系统的设计、施工与运行维护提供参考依据。     

Culture,financial crisis and the demand for property,accident and health insurance in the OECD countries

Culture has been known to play an important role in explaining differences in consumption behaviour across countries. Yet, we know very little how it affects spending on non-life insurance products. This paper attempts to shed some light on how cultural characteristics impact the demand for property, accident and health insurance, focusing on the OECD countries in the period 2000–2017. We find, via the system generalized method of moment estimations, that cultural characteristics such as individualism, long-term orientation, masculinity and uncertainty avoidance were the drivers of the expenditure on property insurance, whereas long-term orientation, uncertainty avoidance and hypometropia explained accident and health insurance spending across the OECD countries. In the presence of the global financial crisis, cultural effects on property insurance spending turned out to be relatively minor, with the exception of individualism. These findings provide valuable information for non-life insurance companies, consumers and policy makers in the OECD countries.     

交通事故防治对策研究

近年来交通事故急剧上升,重大交通事故时有发生,给国家和家庭造成巨大损失。文中试图通过研究我国交通事故的现状、特点,探讨我国交通事故多发的种种原因,并进一步提出防治交通事故的对策。     

事故致因理论的煤矿安全管理研究

完善煤矿生产安全管理工作,提高预警和事后搜救效率,确保矿工生命安全,是煤炭工业发展的重中之重.为了有效控制和预防煤矿事故的发生,改善内蒙古自治区煤矿安全生产状况,保证煤矿职工的生命安全,本文认为,我们有必要对煤矿事故的发生机理进行系统性研究,探讨充实适合内蒙古自治区煤炭工业发展的事故致因理论.     

上海市电梯安全状况分析

本文综合利用本地市、区两级特种设备监管部门、特种设备检验检测机构和特种设备鉴定评审机构、电梯生产单位提供的相关资料,重点从制造安装水平、使用管理水平、政府监管水平、万台设备事故率和万台设备死亡率这五方面,对近5年上海市电梯安全状况进行了详细的分析。     

德国高速铁路安全立法的经验及启示

德国高速铁路安全立法较早,成为保障德国高速铁路安全的重要支柱。从救援防范、安全管理分工合作、安全管理标准规范等角度出发,阐述德国高速铁路安全立法;从建立严格规范的救援和事故调查机制、加强多主体共同合作以及建立安全管理标准体系等方面,分析德国高速铁路安全立法的主要特色。在此基础上,提出德国高速铁路安全立法启示,即:构建安全救援和事故处理法律制度,构建多方合作法律制度机制及构建高速铁路安全管理标准规范制度,为我国高速铁路安全管理法治化提供经验借鉴。     

Optimal accident compensation schemes

This paper considers the way in which accident compensation is offered as insurance against personal injury due to accidents. We begin by setting up a simple microeconomic model in which accident compensation schemes can be studied. Using this model, the accident compensation scheme that maximizes the expected utility of the insured for a given expected outlay of the scheme (that is, for a budget constraint for the insurer) is characterized. We show that, in order for the optimal schedule of indemnities to be increasing (more severe accidents lead to greater compensation) then, contrary to what has been assumed in the literature, the marginal utility of wealth must be decreasing in health. In particular, if the marginal utility of wealth is non-decreasing in health, then an optimal indemnity schedule cannot provide full compensation, in the sense that utility in each state is a constant. Financial support from Secretaría de Estado de Universidades e Investigación del Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia is gratefully acknowledged by F. J. Vázquez.     

Retrospective research into accidents

Abstract

In retrospective research into accidents, a victim's or spectator's account of what happened may differ from what actually occurred, as a consequence of memory processes. It seems that, due to limited time and money resources, current insights in retrospective research are not always fully employed in accident research. This paper demonstrates how existing insights into the collection of retrospective data can be incorporated in accident research, and illustrates how this actually works out in practice.

A review of the literature shows that various precautions can be taken to minimize the influences of memory processes. These precautions have been included in the development of a method of accident investigation. Accidents (n=42) were studied in a video-recorded reconstruction on the site, followed by an open interview using a checklist. The accident data have been examined with respect to indications for bias. The findings show that the demonstrations may differ from the unknown actual occurrences, for example, because people were still wearing bandages at the time of investigation on the site. Interference by video- and sound-recordings appears to be limited. Analysis of within-subject differences in repeated demonstrations of the accident shows that more than half of the subjects display differences in the three demonstrations.

The limitations and benefits of the method developed are discussed in relation to conventional methods of accident research, such as mail questionnaires and telephone interviews. The paper concludes with a plea for the inclusion of empirical analyses or at least a discussion of possible bias in findings from accident research.