Capital market integration in ASEAN: A non-stationary panel data analysis

Motivated by the establishment of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) at the end of 2015, we examine saving-investment relationship in various subgroups of ASEAN to assess their capital market integration. The results from second generation panel unit-root and cointegration tests that account for cross-sectional dependence as well as estimates of long-run saving-retention rate provide some evidence of market integration in ASEAN. The analysis of short-run dynamics suggests that capital mobility in ASEAN during 1980–2014 appears similar to that in OECD countries during 1970–1999. More importantly, across different panel estimators and subgroups of membership, there is considerable heterogeneity among the member countries. The saving-investment association is very weak, thereby implying very high capital mobility, in more developed members such as Singapore, Malaysia, and Brunei; the association is very strong, implying very low capital mobility, for much less developed members such as Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. The results call for renewed effort to develop capital markets in less developed nations and integrate them with the rest of the membership in ASEAN. In this paper, we also address several major shortcomings of the original Feldstein-Horioka framework.     

区域经济一体化、中国-东盟自由贸易区与广西边境贸易研究

区域经济一体化、中国-东盟自由贸易区与广西边境贸易是三个具有密切关系的三个问题。其中区域经济一体化是世界经济一体化的重要组成部分；中国-东盟自由贸易区则是区域经济一体化在亚洲的具体表现形式。广西边境贸易经过了起步、快速增长等阶段，既有着自己独特的优势，也面临着资金困乏、政策影响、投资环境不佳等新问题。必须通过政策改进、环境改善、加强合作等措施来增加边境贸易的竞争力。     

中国对东盟纺织业投资的经济效应分析

中国对东盟纺织服装业的直接投资近年来发展很快。本文从中国对东盟纺织业加强投资的原因分析入手,提出了中国对越南、柬埔寨、印尼、泰国的纺织业投资的路径选择,进而具体分析了投资带来的缓解双方同构性出口竞争压力、提高双方纺织品贸易互补性、促进中国纺织产业结构升级的经济效应。在经济效应分析的基础上．指出中国加强和优化对东盟国家纺织业投资有助于提高中国纺织业整体的核心竞争力。     

加强与东盟旅游业的合作,加快广西旅游业的发展

通过对广西与东盟旅游业合作现状的分析和对广西与东盟旅游业合作 前景的预测，提出了广西拓展与东盟旅游业合作，实施双赢战略，把广西建设成为中国与东盟连接的东线国际旅游大通道的设想。     

The Economic Rise of China: Challenges and Opportunities for ASEAN

This paper looks at the economic rise of China and its impacts and implications for the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. The issues of complementarities and competitiveness of ASEAN and China in trade and investment and the opportunities and challenges arising from China's emergence and the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area are discussed. The message from China's emergence is clear and strong; it is that size does matter. To increase ASEAN competitiveness, the paper highlights the need for a deeper and more rapid economic integration of ASEAN in order to exploit scale economies. The important role of Japan in this process is highlighted. Finally the issue of ASEAN economic diversity is discussed. It is suggested that while ASEAN is fairly diverse, this should not be a critical stumbling block to a more rapid economic integration of ASEAN.     

四川与东盟旅游服务产业内贸易的核心因素初探

中国-东盟自由贸易区的建设为四川旅游业的发展带来了历史性的契机。在此背景下,四川如何抓住机遇,携手东盟,共谋发展成为了一个研究热点。本文以产业内贸易的视角来观察四川与东盟的旅游业发展状况,运用产业内贸易相关理论分析了影响四川与东盟旅游服务产业内贸易的核心因素,提出了区位条件、产品差异化、需求相似、区域经济协作和规模经济可以提升四川与东盟旅游服务产业内贸易水平,双方可以在较高的产业内贸易水平下,实现共赢。     

东亚区域经济合作新模式:中国-东盟自由贸易区

2001年11月在第五次东盟与中国领导人（10＋1）会议上，中国与东盟达成一致，确立了10年内建成中国－东盟自由贸易区的目标。这对双方关系的长远发展和东亚地区的繁荣稳定具有深远意义。它是中国继加入世界贸易组织后又一件对外经贸方面的重大事件。本就这一东亚区域合作的新模式产生的国际背景，以及实现目标所面临的困难进行分析。     

The determinants of FTA use in Southeast Asia: A firm-level analysis

The spread of free trade agreements (FTAs) in Southeast Asia has ignited a debate about their impact on enterprises including the business costs from the Asian ‘noodle bowl’ effect. This paper undertakes a comparative and firm-level analysis of the determinants of FTA use in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines. The likelihood of firms using important ASEAN+1 FTAs (e.g. the ASEAN-China FTA, the ASEAN-Japan FTA and ASEAN-Korea FTA) is positively associated with acquiring knowledge about FTAs, building technological capabilities, and membership in industrial clusters. Non-use of FTAs is explained by a lack of information about FTAs and the absence of FTAs with major trading partners. Key policy implications are the need to improve business support for FTAs, to conclude FTAs with major trading partners, and to create a database on FTA preference use.     

Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis

This paper aims to analyse the feasibility of policy coordination among the ASEAN-5 economies. This is done by determining whether they experience symmetric responses to common shocks. Given that the problem of dimensionality plagues large-scale macroeconomic modelling, a Global VAR model by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004) and Dees, Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) is used. The results in this paper provide some weak evidence of symmetric responses to the common (global) shocks of interest: a US monetary policy shock, a US output shock, a Chinese output shock; an oil price shock. Shocks from the US produced the most symmetric responses. The lack of symmetry in some cases has implications for further policy coordination. Since migrant remittances could provide an adjustment mechanism, further labour market integration is needed as it currently lags behind trade and financial integration in the region.     

Growth and real business cycles in Vietnam and the Asean-5. Does the trend shock matter?

We examine Vietnam’s economy in comparison with its closest trade partners. We show that capital accumulation has been the primary growth engine since the start of its transition to the pro-market economy in 1986 – the Doi Moi. We also show that the cyclical behavior of its macro aggregates is similar to that of its ASEAN-5 peers and other developing countries. We extend the standard small open economy RBC model by considering habit persistence and government consumption, which allows a close match of the moments of the growth variables. At the business cycle frequency, transitory productivity shocks account for approximately one-half of Vietnam’s output variance, while country risk and non-transitory productivity shocks account to close to one-fifth each. Regarding the Solow residual’s volatility, we find that the trend component merely accounts for 12 % of this variance in Vietnam, while in Thailand it is only 6 %. These findings refute the “the cycle is the trend” hypothesis in Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) and align with the hypotheses in García-Cicco et al. (2010) and Rhee (2017), where the stationary component is overwhelmingly dominant. We claim that technological progress and productivity-enhancing measures are fundamental for Vietnam’s economy to sustain high growth.