国际产品内分工与进出口贸易——基于我国工业行业面板数据的经验研究

在经济全球化兴起和科技迅猛发展的大背景下,以国际产品内分工为基础的中间品贸易日益盛行,并成为当今国际贸易领域的重要特征之一。本文分年度、分行业地测算了连续14年我国工业行业参与国际产品内分工的程度,并实证研究了其对我国进出口贸易的影响。结论是:近十余年来,国际产品内分工有力地促进了我国工业各行业进出口贸易额的增长;同时,垂直专业化比重(VSS)的上升也在一定程度上推动了我国工业行业贸易顺差的增长。     

Religion, longevity, and cooperation: The case of the craft guild

When the mortality rate is high, repeated interaction alone may not sustain cooperation, and religion may play an important role in shaping economic institutions. This insight explains why during the fourteenth century, when plagues decimated populations and the church promoted the doctrine of purgatory, guilds that bundled together religious and occupational activities dominated manufacturing and commerce. During the sixteenth century, the disease environment eased, and the Reformation dispelled the doctrine of purgatory, necessitating the development of new methods of organizing industry. The logic underlying this conclusion has implications for the study of institutions, economics, and religion throughout history and in the developing world today.     

Leveling the playing field: factors influencing trade show success for small companies

Recent research indicates that trade shows are a place to find prospects and close sales. Yet, many requisites of success found in prior studies may not be available to companies with limited resources. A study that compares the activities of successful vs. unsuccessful exhibitors from small companies was conducted. Results indicate similar budgets, yet very different results. Factors influencing success include strategic factors such as centering responsibility in one position, as well as tactical decisions such as those regarding pre-show promotion.     

开放经济下的货币政策独立性:一个理论框架——兼论货币区的“三元悖论”之解

美国次贷危机引发本轮全球性金融危机凸显了以美国为核心的金融资本主义模式和以美元为核心国际货币金融体系的制度性缺陷,改革现行以美元为核心的国际货币金融体系势在必行,建立货币区是较为现实的选择。但在现行货币政策框架下,货币区不可避免处于三元悖论困境。本文提出的贷款准备金政策框架模型能够解决货币区在保证其内在要求的资本自由流动和汇率稳定基本前提下,区内各个成员保持货币政策独立性问题。     

Economies of scale and trade policy: The median voter model revisited

Why do some political economy models perform so poorly in predicting actual trade policy? Do scale economies provide the missing puzzle to our understanding of the anti-trade bias? By integrating economies of scale in production, this paper theoretically reinstates the median voter model as in Mayer [Mayer, W. (1984). Endogenous tariff formation. The American Economic Review, 74, 970–985] as a suitable political economy model in predicting trade policy. The modified model generates the scope for the anti-trade bias and predicts that sometimes economic, rather than political, considerations may lead to restrictive trade.     

外贸顺差、贸易筛选与就业关系研究——基于月度数据的再检验

本文利用2001-2009年的对外贸易月度数据,考察了中国出口与外贸顺差对就业水平的影响。研究表明,在暂时不考虑进口的情况下,出口规模的扩大对就业依然产生正向冲击;但是考虑进口后,外贸顺差的就业效应却呈现出先促进后抑制的效应。因此,传统的菲利普斯曲线机制认为的外贸顺差促进就业的观点可能需要重新修正,而Helpman等提出的"贸易筛选"机制在中国当前的外贸顺差规模下,将在劳动力市场上发挥主要作用。鉴于此,中国应在进一步提高出口规模和质量的同时,重视进口对经济发展的促进作用,将外贸顺差规模控制在合理范围。     

中国和东盟人民币贸易结算的经济学分析

本文构建了一个三经济体的贸易模型,从贸易损失的角度分析中国和东盟地区采用人民币进行贸易结算对中国和东盟,以及对世界其他主要经济体的福利影响。分析结果表明:中国和东盟地区结成货币联盟对世界主要经济体都将产生正面效应;由于东盟地区整体技术稍低,中国和东盟结成货币联盟将使东盟贸易损失下降更多和产出增加更大,从而提升东盟地区的整体福利;中国和东盟进行人民币结算对各经济体而言,属于帕累托改进,符合激励相容原则,具备理论上的可行性;中国和东盟进行货币联盟的优势在于两大经济体之间的地缘优势和生产技术类似。