Capital market trading volume: an overview and some preliminary conclusions

This paper suggests an explanation for the heavy trading volumeobserved on the US capital markets, the world's largest. Heterodoxeconomic theory puts much of this volume down to speculation.Mainstream theory tends to support this thesis, either directlyor indirectly, by giving space to the idea that trading activityis for the most part exogenous to the functioning of the capitalmarkets. The central hypothesis of this paper is that the tradingvolumes observed are an endogenous feature of the capital markets,because they are to a great extent determined by the needs ofthe institutional investors who predominate on these markets.This endogeneity of trading is posited in connection with theemergence of a new ‘core–satellite’ paradigmin institutional investment, a development that essentiallymanifests the asset-management industry's transformation froma small industry serving a few wealthy clients to a mass industryserving large sections of the population.     

External Debts,Institutions and Growth in SSA

The study investigates the impact of institutional quality on the external debt–growth nexus in SSA. Data from 36 SSA economies over the 1996–2013 periods were used. The results from the IV-System GMM imply that institutional quality has robust effects on the external debt–growth nexus. Thus, the impact of external debt on growth is through host nation’s institutional quality. However, the mediating effect of institutional quality on this nexus is up to a point. When a country is on the wrong side of the debt-laffer curve, external debt becomes irrelevant; and institutional quality can no longer help.     

中国外贸增长方式转变的评价指标体系与实证研究

从外贸规模、外贸结构、外贸效益、外贸可持续发展、外贸竞争力五个方面建立外贸增长方式及其转变的评价指标体系,以中国1995—2008年的数据,对外贸增长方式转变成效进行了实证研究表明,从总体上来看,外贸增长方式转变已有成效;规模指标显示外贸规模不断扩大;结构指标显示外贸结构在波动中优化,但优化程度与规模增长相比显得不足;效益指标、可持续发展指标、外贸竞争力指标,都有一定程度的上升。但贸易结构有待进一步优化,贸易条件需要进一步改善,环境、资源指标需要进一步提高,外贸增长方式转变的任务仍然十分艰巨。     

论后危机时代新兴产业崛起下信息产业的转型——以广西为例

融入新兴产业实现信息产业的转型,是广西经济建设的内在需要,也是顺应世界发展潮流的明智之举。本文对广西信息产业转型发展的可行性、难点及其突破思路进行分析。广西信息产业具备一定的规模,传统工业体系健全、相对发达,这为信息产业的转型奠定了基础;市场需求旺盛、关键技术得以突破以及广西与东盟有良好的信息产业合作平台,则为培育和发展新一代信息产业创造了条件。但是,与此同时,也面临人才匮乏,资金短缺,基础设施滞后以及政策执行不力等诸多难题,必须积极采取有效措施将其一一破解。     

增值税“扩围”改革对现代服务业发展的影响分析——以上海市“营改增”试点政策为例

本文从分析现代服务业在经济增长中的作用及现行流转税制结构对现代服务业发展的影响入手,论述了现代服务业“营改增”的必要性。以上海市“营改增”试点政策为例,分析了增值税“扩围”改革对增值税一般纳税人和小规模纳税人的影响,以及对服务贸易的影响,提出了上海市试点政策对增值税“扩围改革”的几点启示。     

传统家居陈设艺术的当代转换——以屏风为例

＂实用为本＂与＂道器相宜＂是中国传统造物思想中与现代设计理念相切合的部分。以传统家居陈设艺术中的屏风为例,阐明屏风的当代转换设计应营造适于当下生活方式之＂用＂,合乎当下思想文化之＂道＂。     

征地纠纷的解决方式：问题与对策

在城乡一体化进程中,征地纠纷具有多发性、群体性、复杂性、长期性,其社会关注度高,经济社会影响大。然而,我国征地纠纷解决方式存在诸多不足,导致被征地农民存在诉讼难、请律师难、信访难。维护农民的土地权益,化解征地纠纷,当务之急在于完善和创新征地纠纷解决机制,增设征地听证程序,设立独立的土地裁决机构,扩大诉讼救济的范围,改革现行的信访制度。     

Out-of-sample density forecasts with affine jump diffusion models

We conduct out-of-sample density forecast evaluations of the affine jump diffusion models for the S&P 500 stock index and its options’ contracts. We also examine the time-series consistency between the model-implied spot volatilities using options & returns and only returns. In particular, we focus on the role of the time-varying jump risk premia. Particle filters are used to estimate the model-implied spot volatilities. We also propose the beta transformation approach for recursive parameter updating. Our empirical analysis shows that the inconsistencies between options & returns and only returns are resolved by the introduction of the time-varying jump risk premia. For density forecasts, the time-varying jump risk premia models dominate the other models in terms of likelihood criteria. We also find that for medium-term horizons, the beta transformation can weaken the systematic effect of misspecified AJD models using options & returns.