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1.
In this paper, I assess the evidence for a structural break in labor productivity growth in the years before the Great Recession with the use of out-of-sample forecasting exercises for the years 2010 to 2019 and the recently developed Beveridge–Nelson filter. Models based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter with no structural breaks outperform those allowing for a structural break, and there is statistically significant evidence that they outperform the random walk, though all models were too optimistic about labor productivity growth. Recently developed statistical tests do point to the presence of a structural break before the Great Recession, but uncertainty about the data-generating process for labor productivity growth or the timing and magnitude of the break may be too great to be helpful in forecast preparation. 相似文献
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从市场经济体制的建立到经济社会高质量发展,我国不同部门市场化程度有所差异,劳动供给的部门异质性随之体现。基于中国劳动力动态调查数据,结合汉森门槛回归模型和劳动供给模型,依托部门市场化程度的差异性,文章探讨了工资对劳动力个人供给的非线性影响及其部门异质性。主要得出以下研究结论:第一,我国市场部门与公共部门劳动力的个人劳动供给有所差异。第二,工资与个人劳动供给呈现非线性关系并且存在部门异质性。实证分析结果显示,工资对个人劳动供给的影响存在三个"突变点",工资门槛均使得工资"激励效应"加强并呈现逐步增加的趋势。第三,劳动供给的工资门槛存在性别、城乡和行业异质性。第四,随着年龄增长、人力资本积累,个人劳动时间供给趋于降低,签署书面劳工合同使得市场部门劳动力工作时间显著增加,而政治面貌显著影响公共部门劳动供给。总体来看,无论是市场部门还是公共部门,我国劳动力个人供给曲线均未"向后弯曲",国民经济高质量发展、改善收入分配格局、提升居民幸福感等议题需持续关注。 相似文献
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建立产业共性技术研发外包博弈模型,从政府视角研究以共性技术产出最大化为目标的最优政府支持性研发外包合同,并对最优外包合同影响因素进行分析。研究表明:足够多的政府预算是共性技术政府支持性最优研发外包合同存在的前提,最优合同条款随政府预算的增大而增多,企业保留收益增大倒逼政府预算增加;企业最优知识技术投入与共性技术价值系数以及从研发中分享的收益份额正相关,与政府支付的固定研发费用负相关;政府最优知识技术投入与固定研发费用及单位投入成本系数负相关;企业最优投入与政府投入成本系数负相关,与政府投入对研发成功的贡献系数正相关,且企业最优投入随其研发能力的增强而加大。最后,根据研究结论,从政府预算、项目前景及支持性资源分配3个方面提出共性技术研发外包合同实施的政策建议。 相似文献
4.
We model market integration in the Middle East and Africa by analyzing price dispersion and testing the law of one price (LOP) on highly-comparable actual local retail prices of 135 goods and services across 23 countries in the region over the period of 1990–2016. Second-generation panel estimators are applied to four price benchmarks: Regional average, South Africa, China, and US prices. Cross-regional price dispersion diminishes considerably over time up to 2008, particularly for non-tradeables around China price. The test of LOP indicates the percentage of convergent prices is highest in China price benchmark, followed by US, South Africa, and regional average benchmarks. Direct estimation of the convergence speed confirms this order. Overall, the results show evidence of increasing market integration in Middle East and Africa but it appears to be driven by global forces and, especially, the rise of China as a new economic power. The results show that some emerging market economies, such as China, can step up and promote integration while traditional economic powerhouses, such as the USA and UK, disengage from international economic relations. 相似文献
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《Socio》2021
The work presents a robust approach to labor share analysis. The estimate of labor share presents various complexities related to the nature of the data sets to be analyzed. Typically, labor share is evaluated by using discriminant analysis and linear or generalized linear models, that do not take into account the presence of possible outliers. Moreover, the variables to be considered are often characterized by a high dimensional structure. The proposed approach has the objective of improving the estimation of the model using robust multivariate regression techniques and data transformation. 相似文献
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Hans Andersson Sailesh Ramamurtie Bharat Ramaswami 《Journal of economic behavior & organization》2003,50(4):477-493
In the developed countries, a majority of farm households receive at least as much income from nonfarm sources as from the farm. Such part-time farms have survived inspite of lower returns than full-time farms. This paper considers when lower returns to part-time farming could be compensated by risk-reduction due to diversification of income sources. The paper uses a dynamic portfolio choice model with labor income. The model and results could be applied in other contexts as well. 相似文献
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在我国,户籍歧视是形成劳动力市场分割的重要原因,它不但通过阻碍劳动力流动造成城乡收入差异,也会促成农民工和城镇工人之间劳动报酬的差异。本文利用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)多年的数据,对我国户籍歧视影响劳动报酬差异的程度进行计算和分析。结论表明,近几年户籍歧视现象并没有明显改观,政府在制定相应政策时,仍需关注这方面的问题。 相似文献