The internal dynamic of Indian economic growth

A stylised fact of India's economic history since 1950 is that the rate of growth of the economy has accelerated periodically and across policy regimes. In this paper we present a theoretical framework that can generate such a pattern due to cumulative causation through positive feedback. The growth process is then investigated using cointegration analysis. We are able to establish the existence of positive feedback which is at the centre of cumulative causation. We are also able to date the onset of this mechanism which has driven growth in India for close to half a century by now. This leads us to conclude that the internal dynamics are at least as important as the policy regimes to understand growth over the long term in this country.     

Adding Value to Applied Policy Models： The Case of the WTO and OECD Support Classification Systems

Both the OECD and the WTO have accumulated systematic data on the magnitude of support going to farmers as a result of farm policies. The datasets are collected for different purposes, but both give a detailed picture of the evolution of these policies. This paper extends recent work on the compatibility or otherwise of the two attempts at policy monitoring by considering the categorization of individual policy instruments in Norway, Switzerland, the US, and the EU. The results show how the OECD dataset, particularly with respect to the link between direct payments and production requirements, complements that of the WTO. Many payments classified in the WTO Green Box require production, raising the possibility that they may distort production and trade. Though the issue of correct notifications to the WTO is the province of lawyers, the implications for modeling and policy analysis are of interest to economists, and the broader question of improving the consistency of the two datasets is of importance in the quest for transparency in the interpretation of changes in farm policies.     

生产性服务业推动制造业发展的实证分析

文章在对生产性服务业推动制造业发展和升级进行理论分析的基础上,运用计量经济方法从两方面分析了我国服务业尤其是生产性服务业对制造业发展的推动作用。第一,为说明服务业发展对制造业发展的促进作用,研究了各省 （市、区） 制造业增加值与服务业总体增加值以及交通运输仓储和邮政业、金融业、批发和零售业等服务行业增加值的关系。第二,为进一步说明生产性服务业投入作为重要的中间投入对制造业发展的促进作用,研究了北京各工业行业增加值与流通服务、信息服务、金融服务、商务服务、科技服务五个生产性服务业投入的关系。计量经济分析支持服务业对制造业发展具有积极作用和生产性服务投入对制造业发展具有积极作用的原假设。但个别变量不显著,也表明服务业对制造业的推动作用尚未充分发挥出来。这为进一步促进我国生产性服务业发展并以其推动制造业发展升级提供了依据。文章相应提出了对策建议。     

十二五时期我国生产性服务业的开放发展与ECFA框架下两岸的整合

十二五期间生产性服务业的开放发展不仅关系到我国产业结构的升级转型,而且关系到我国在知识经济时代新的竞争优势和比较优势的形成。两岸应把握ECFA这一大好机遇与政策框架,积极开展两岸生产性服务业的整合,共图发展。     

生产性服务业发展、制造业升级与就业结构优化——“民工荒与大学生就业难”的解释与出路

近年来出现的"民工荒与大学生就业难"并存现象,从表面上体现了我国就业市场上供求结构的失衡,但从本质上反映了我国产业结构不合理、制造业处于全球价值链低端环节、增值能力不强的困境.加快发展生产性服务业,促进制造业转型升级,并以生产性服务业发展和制造业转型升级"双轮驱动",优化就业市场结构,是解决"民工荒与大学生就业难"悖论的有效途径.     

江苏省生产性服务业FDI对制造业的影响研究

本文概述了1998—2011年江苏省生产性服务业FDI的规模和行业特征,发现生产性服务业FDI与制造业具有相同的增长趋势。利州}办整检验和Granger因果检验表明,江苏省生产性服务业FDI与制造业产值之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且当滞后期为1时,生产性服务业FDI规模的变化是制造业增加值变化的原因;应用多元线性回归模型对江苏省生产性服务业进行分行业的实证研究。最后,阐述了生产性服务业FDI对制造业影响效应。     

产业合作机制、模式创新视角下的浙台生产性服务业合作研究

新兴服务业尤其是生产性服务业已成为步入工业化发展中后期的浙江省优化产业结构的战略重点和经济转型升级的引擎,也是推动浙台产业合作机制与模式创新的重要切入点。浙江应抓住ECFA为两岸开展生产性服务业合作提供的良好契机,推进双方产业合作机制与模式创新,推动浙台经济合作模式从功能性向制度性转变,确立推进双方生产性服务业合作的策...     

中国生产性服务业和制造业的产业关联分析

本文以1997、2002和2007年中国投入产出表数据为基础,运用投入产出分析法,对我国生产性服务业和制造业进行产业关联分析。研究结果表明：第三产业已成为生产性服务业的主要服务对象;制造业对生产性服务业的中间需求结构以及生产性服务业对制造业的中间投入结构均呈现不断升级趋势;制造业对生产性服务业的拉动作用大于生产性服务业对制造业的促进作用。我国生产性服务业与制造业呈现出显著的互动关系,但关联效应仍处于较低水平。这一研究对于我国相关产业政策的制定具有重要的理论和现实意义。

Abstract：

In this paper,the relevancy of producer services and manufacturing is analyzed based on the input-output table of China collected from 1997 to 2007.The following conclu-sions are drawn.Firstly,the tertiary industries have become the main consumer for producer services.Secondly,there is an uptrend of the intermediate demand structure of manufactur-ing to producer services as well as the intermediate input structure of producer services to manufacturing.Thirdly,the influence that manufacturing pull the producer services is more efficient than the function that producer services promote the manufacturing.Finally,the interaction between producer services and manufacturing is significant in China,but the relevancy level of the two industries is still low.The study has important theoretical and practical significance for the formulations of the related industrial policy.     

生产性服务业外资企业投资分布演化——基于江苏省的实证研究

随着全球生产制造活动向我国的大规模转移,近年来服务业外国直接投资也表现出了快速增长的势头。本文以制造业外国直接投资较为集中的江苏省为研究对象,重点从集聚的"路径依赖"效果和产业关联作用两个角度考察了生产性服务业外资企业的投资分布状况及其空间演化。结果表明,短期内,路径依赖效果和产业关联作用都产生了显著影响,但长期影响效果还不是很明显。     

The Industry Determinants of Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Canadian Producer Prices

This paper models and estimates exchange rate pass-through and its determinants in Canadian manufacturing industries. The paper predicts theoretically that the exchange rate pass-through should be between one and zero, where it is positively affected by the share of tradable inputs in production costs and the domestic firms’ market share, and negatively by the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output. The sign for the degree of product differentiation is not theoretically clear. Results of estimation indicate that pass-through is incomplete and is mostly affected by the share of tradable inputs in production costs (positively) and the elasticity of marginal cost with respect to output (negatively).