Calibration of implied volatility for the exchange rate for the Chinese Yuan from its derivatives

Revised implied volatility curves and surfaces for the Chinese Yuan (CNY) exchange rate are obtained from market quotations for CNY non-deliverable options by solving an inverse problem of foreign exchange option pricing, which is calculated using a regularization approach in an optimal control framework. To take account of the market expectation for the CNY exchange rate, a stochastic adjusted factor is applied that follows a Vasicek model with parameters fitted from market quotations for CNY non-deliverable forwards. A well-posed numerical scheme is implemented.     

How accurate are government forecasts of economic fundamentals? The case of Taiwan

A government’s ability to forecast key economic fundamentals accurately can affect business confidence, consumer sentiment, and foreign direct investment, among others. A government forecast based on an econometric model is replicable, whereas one that is not fully based on an econometric model is non-replicable. Governments typically provide non-replicable forecasts (or expert forecasts) of economic fundamentals, such as the inflation rate and real GDP growth rate.In this paper, we develop a methodology for evaluating non-replicable forecasts. We argue that in order to do so, one needs to retrieve from the non-replicable forecast its replicable component, and that it is the difference in accuracy between these two that matters. An empirical example to forecast economic fundamentals for Taiwan shows the relevance of the proposed methodological approach. Our main finding is that the undocumented knowledge of the Taiwanese government reduces forecast errors substantially.     

Artisan Flowers Inc.: A Framework‐Based Approach to IFRS Leasing Standards

Artisan Flowers Inc.'s (AFI) business is centered on importing and selling cut flowers. The company has entered into a number of lease transactions that have the president of AFI perplexed with their accounting treatment and implications. Now, the audit firm needs to explain to AFI's president the appropriate treatment and implications of these lease transactions using current IFRS (IAS 17) and (optionally) the 2013 Lease Exposure Draft. The purpose of this case is for students to gain an understanding and appreciation of the intricacies of IAS 17 as well as the proposed Lease Exposure Draft and the implication of these standards on debt covenants. Students are asked for an explanation of the conceptual basis for the standards and for an analysis of the impact of the standards on AFI's statement of financial position.     

WTO内“潜在利益”的保护:一种新的贸易干涉工具

在美国投诉欧共体"香蕉贸易体制案"中,专家组和上诉机构均支持了美国基于"潜在利益"所享有的"投诉资格"。联合国秘书长将此案作为WTO援引国家责任条款草案第42条和第48条的例证。在此背景基础上,考虑到国家基于某些WTO协议所承担的义务具有"对一切"的性质,以及WTO内既存"非违法之诉"的事实,"潜在利益"有被用作贸易干涉工具的可能性。作为贸易干涉工具的"潜在利益",既有利于促进国家更好地履行WTO义务,也可能被贸易强国用作扩张自身利益的工具。     

Do forecasters target first or later releases of national accounts data?

We consider whether it is possible to determine if macro forecasters are attempting to forecast first estimates of data, or revised estimates. Our approach requires that data revisions are predictable prior to the first estimate being released. There is some evidence that this condition is met for some series, and that some forecasters put some weight on later estimates for consumers’ expenditure and the GDP deflator.     

Does Peacetime Military Service Affect Crime?

Draft lottery data combined with Danish longitudinal administrative records show that military service can reduce criminal activity for youth offenders. For this group, property crime is reduced, and our results indicate that the effect is unlikely to be the result of incapacitation only. We find no effect of military service on violent crime, on educational attainment, or on employment and earnings, either in the short run or in the long run. These results suggest that military service does not upgrade productive human capital directly, but rather affects criminal activity through other channels (e.g., by changing attitudes to criminal activity).     

Optimal pricing, production rate, and quality under learning effects

This study investigates the marketing and production problem for a monopolist firm where price, quality and production rate are simultaneous dynamic decision variables under the condition of a dynamic demand that depends on price, quality and cumulative sales. The formulated continuous profit maximization model follows the steps for dynamic optimization to derive optimal price, quality and production policies, wherein a unit production cost that decreases with cumulative production reflects the cost learning effect. Through the differentiable multiplicatively separable demand function, this study analyzes optimal trajectories for determining price, quality, and production rate. The results specify several optimal policies and policy makers would gain insight into the consequence of their decisions that otherwise might have been obscured by sub-optimal analysis.     

Stock option compensation: impact of expense recognition on performance indicators of non-domestic companies listed in the U.S.

The IFRS 2, Share-based Payment, requires that companies recognize the fair value of employee stock options as an expense. To ascertain the impact recognition will have on companies domiciled in countries subject to accounting standards issued by the IASB’s liaison standard setting partners, this research examines the pro forma stock option disclosures provided in Form 20-F by Australian, British, Canadian, French, German, Japanese, and Irish companies.The findings indicate the average impact of expense recognition on diluted EPS will be approximately 40% and will be material at a 5% level for the majority of the companies. The impact varies significantly by country. On average the annual expense recognized will be approximately 15% of beginning stockholders equity. For the majority of the companies, the charge will represent less than 1% of beginning equity. Again the impact varies significantly by country.The findings indicate that absent requirements that stock compensation expense be recognized, a material upward bias will be reflected in performance indicators of many non-U.S. companies and cross-border comparability will be impaired. Since our analysis is based solely on data for the year 2000 for companies domiciled in seven countries, future research will be needed to ascertain the impact of expense recognition on a broader range of companies reporting under IFRS 2.     

欧洲经济一体化与《欧盟宪法条约》的财政影响

从分析国际经济一体化理论入手,根据2004年欧盟宪法的主要内容和特点,重点探讨了欧盟财政收入一体化,即一体化公司税率或共同改善租税结构,和欧盟宪法对财政赤字规范运作的影响这两个方面。在此基础上,分析了欧盟宪法可能的目的和影响。     

Exploring the discrepancies in perceived destination images from residents’ and tourists’ perspectives: a revised importance–performance analysis approach

A comprehensive and balanced understanding of both local residents’ and tourists’ perceived destination image (DI) is a pivotal step for successful tourism development. Using the revised importance–performance analysis approach, this study assesses the differences between residents’ and tourists’ perceived implicit importance and performance of DI attributes in the Liyu Lake Scenic Area in Hualien, Taiwan. A mixed methods approach was adopted. First, 30 pertinent image attributes were identified by interviewing local residents and tourists. These image attributes were subsequently used in a questionnaire survey. Results indicate that residents’ and tourists’ opinions were divided on environmental issues and purposes of visit. The most significant finding is that both the residents and tourists regarded the majority of the attributes as “possible overkill,” suggesting that destination management organization should reconsider the direction for future development and try to realize the “real needs” of the residents and tourists based on their motivations.