PEDAKSI: Methodology for Collecting Data about Survey Non-Respondents

The effects of unit non-response on survey errors are of great concern to researchers.However, direct assessment of non-response bias in survey estimates is rarely possible.Attempts are often made to adjust for the effects of non-response by weighting, but thisusually relies on the use of frame data or external population data, which are at bestmodestly correlated with the survey variables. This paper reports the development ofa method to collect limited survey data from non-respondents to personal interviewsurveys and a large-scale field test of the method on the British Crime Survey (BCS).The method is shown to be acceptable and low cost, to provide valid data, and to haveno detrimental effect on the main survey. The use of the resultant data to estimatenon-response bias is illustrated and some substantive conclusions are drawn for the BCS.     

Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder

Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).     

虚开增值税专用发票开票者犯罪认定难题探析

虚开增值税专用发票的主体一般分为开票者、受票者和介绍者,其中以"开票者"的认定最为复杂.文章主要针对司法实践中本罪的主体之一开票者认定上存在的一些问题进行分析探讨.     

会计职务犯罪的心理学分析

近年来有的财会人员经不住种种诱惑,采取非法手段,侵害国家、集体和人民的利益,其突出表现为做假帐。本文从心理学的角度分析了会计职务犯罪产生的因素,会计职务犯罪对社会的危害。最后,对如何预防会计职务犯罪,运用制度经济学原理从宏观和微观两方面提出了建议。     

中国古代耕牛保护制度及其对后世的影响

自西周以迄清朝,中国历代法律都严厉禁止任意宰杀牛,规定了相应的屠宰标准和审批手续。无论是牛主(牛的所有者)还是他人,私屠乱宰牛都是犯罪行为,要受到法律的制裁。这一制度的实施不是出于宗教的信仰或禁忌,也不是为了保护动物的福利(生存权),更不是为了保障食品安全,而是为了保证有足够的耕牛以满足农业生产的需要。这一制度对20世纪80年代前的中国近现代耕牛保护制度产生了深远的影响。     

Crime prediction by data-driven Green’s function method

We develop an algorithm that forecasts cascading events, by employing a Green’s function scheme on the basis of the self-exciting point process model. This method is applied to open data of 10 types of crimes happened in Chicago. It shows a good prediction accuracy superior to or comparable to the standard methods which are the expectation–maximization method and prospective hotspot maps method. We find a cascade influence of the crimes that has a long-time, logarithmic tail; this result is consistent with an earlier study on burglaries. This long-tail feature cannot be reproduced by the other standard methods. In addition, a merit of the Green’s function method is the low computational cost in the case of high density of events and/or large amount of the training data.     

Police-Monitored Cameras and Crime*

We study the effects of police monitoring on crime. We exploit detailed information on the location and date of installation of police-monitored surveillance cameras, coupled with data at the street-segment level on all reported crimes in the city of Montevideo, Uruguay. We find that the introduction of police-monitored surveillance cameras reduces crime by about 20 percent in monitored areas relative to a pure control group located outside the city. We also explore potential displacement effects, and we do not find evidence of such effects.     

严查行贿犯罪之实体进路

行贿直接诱发受贿．是腐败产生的温床,严查行贿犯罪是当前我国遏制腐败的必然要求。从实体法上解决查处行贿犯罪面临的“瓶颈”问题是刑法本身的社会性、刑事程序的僵化性、配套法律的欠缺性和国际条约的普适性之必然选择。为此,我们应该围绕严查的标准和需求,检视现行实体法存在的诸多不足,在此基础上,从罪与刑两个方面共同着力,既要严密法网,扩大行为犯罪化,加大追诉力度,又要疏缓刑罚,实现犯罪轻刑化,增加侦破几率．以此切实达到严查行贿犯罪之目的。     

Visitor perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk: The case of Table Mountain National Park,Cape Town

This paper investigates tourist perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk whilst visiting Table Mountain National Park (TMNP) in Cape Town in June and July 2008. The study examined survey data of 303 domestic and international tourists during their visit to TMNP. A linear regression analysis revealed that although visitors had concerns about their personal safety they are still likely to return to TMNP and recommend it to other people. In addition, visitor attitudes towards risk did not influence perceptions of crime-safety and its effect on their intentions to revisit or recommend TMNP. The results also show that respondent's individual characteristics such as age, nationality, and purpose of visit influenced their perceptions of crime-safety. Perceptions that TMNP is unsafe tended to increase with respondent's age. Respondents on holiday were more likely to perceive TMNP as safer than those on business or visiting friends and relatives. The study's findings add to the literature by offering more insight on tourist perceptions of crime-safety and attitudes towards risk and their impact on tourist behaviour. Various tourist-crime prevention measures to enhance visitor safety at national parks are also recommended to the tourism industry and law enforcement agencies.     

我国注册会计师刑事责任若干问题探讨

提供虚假证明文件罪和出具证明文件重大失实罪是与注册会计师刑事责任最为密切的两个罪名,有关此两罪的立法和司法实践存在诸多需要探讨的问题。在立法方面,探讨了两罪的追诉标准和提供虚假证明文件罪的法定加重情形等问题;在司法实践方面,从单位犯罪、共同犯罪两个方面探讨了两罪的法律适用。