我国合理市盈率与股市泡沫的实证分析

市盈率是被广泛用来测量股市泡沫风险的一个重要指标。本根据“股票的理论价格应该是未来各期红利的贴现之和”这一传统金融理论，导出用以衡量股市泡沫成分的基准——合理市盈率的计算方法。通过分析发现市盈率的合理值是一个动态值，据此测量出的上海A股市场泡沫成分自1993年以来呈明显下降趋势，说明我国股票市场上的投资日趋成熟，投资行为日趋理性。     

Welfare effects of bubbles in an endogenous growth model

This paper examines welfare effects of asset bubbles in an endogenous growth model with overlapping generations. In our model, a steady-state equilibrium with bubbles exists only if the presence of bubbles raises the welfare level of the initial generation. Bubbles can be beneficial to generations born at relatively early dates, whereas they reduce the welfare level of sufficiently distant future generations. Increasing the rate of supply of the useless asset improves the lifetime utilities of future generations.     

日本资产价格泡沫发生机制研究

资金和投资意愿是产生资产价格泡沫的充分必要条件。20世纪80年代后期,滞后的金融体制改革、歪曲的税制、日美贸易摩擦、削减赤字的财政再建计划、良好的经济状况和国家竞争力的整体上升使日本同时具备了资产价格泡沫发生的两个条件。借鉴日本的经验,通过财政、税收政策扩大市场上可投资资产的供给,同时降低预期的投资收益是防止和缓解我国发生资产价格泡沫的主要手段。     

资产价格泡沫与我国货币政策传导效应的非对称性研究

本文通过构造含有资产价格泡沫的经济系统,使用结构向量自回归模型与脉冲响应函数分析了我国货币政策对资产泡沫的影响和资产价格泡沫与其它变量之间的关系。结果表明,我国货币政策的资产价格传导渠道效应显著存在,但货币政策的资产价格效应对于不同资产类型具有非对称性,货币政策对股票市场的影响要远远大于对房地产市场的影响;资产价格泡沫的正向冲击对通货膨胀呈现出倒U型影响,并且不同资产类型对通货膨胀具有非对称性,股票市场对通货膨胀的影响要远远大于房地产市场;资产价格泡沫对产出具有正向效应,但不同资产价格类型对于产出冲击也存在非对称性,股票资产价格对产出的影响要小于房地产对产出的影响。     

Robust asset prices with bubbles

We generally establish equilibrium asset prices than can include price bubbles yet (a) be robust to truncations of the economy and (b) exclude trade in non-consumables, like money, stock certificates, or land deeds.     

Double Bubbles in Assets Markets With Multiple Generations

We construct an asset market in a finite horizon overlapping-generations environment. Subjects are tested for comprehension of their fundamental value exchange environment and then reminded during each of 25 periods of the environment's declining new value. We observe price bubbles forming when new generations enter the market with additional liquidity and bursting as old generations exit the market and withdrawing cash. The entry and exit of traders in the market creates an M shaped double bubble price path over the life of the traded asset. This finding is significant in documenting that bubbles can reoccur within one extended trading horizon and, consistent with previous cross-subject comparisons, shows how fluctuations in market liquidity influence price paths. We also find that trading experience leads to price expectations that incorporate fundamental value.     

美国土地制度和土地金融的历史变迁

得天独厚的资源禀赋和市场配置机制,再加上其土地制度的设计几乎没有历史包袱,是最接近"理想"条件的产物,使美国土地市场以及相关的金融市场高度发达,并具有吸收泡沫的一定深度和韧性。土地资源通过金融体系与资本密切结合,使美国工业化和城市化得到了有效支撑。但是,美国金融监管对土地开发与信用扩张之间强正反馈关系警惕不足,历史上反复出现土地或房地产投机引发的资产泡沫;美国农业仍存在过度补贴和补贴非市场化的问题,对土地要素的市场化形成制约;美国的土地征用、分区规划等政策工具使用也曾带来了严重的社会问题。     

行政过度是导致中国股市泡沫的重要原因

中国股票市场近十多年的发展,几乎没有脱离短线炒作的泡沫状态.一个很重要的原因是行政过度,即政府对股市过于频繁的控制和干预.本文从股市历年政策信息中,选取属于行政过度的实例,对其内容和发布形式进行评判,并分析其对股市的影响程度.     

Strategic market games with a finite horizon and incomplete markets

Summary. We study a strategic market game associated to an intertemporal economy with a finite horizon and incomplete markets. We demonstrate that generically, for any finite number of players, every sequentially strictly individually rational and default-free stream of allocations can be approximated by a full subgame-perfect equilibrium. As a consequence, imperfect competition may Pareto-dominate perfect competition when markets are incomplete. Moreover - and this contrasts with the main message conveyed by the market games literature - there exists a large open set of initial endowments for which full subgame-perfect equilibria do not converge to -efficient allocations when the number of players tends to infinity. Finally, strategic speculative bubbles may survive at full subgame-perfect equilibria.Received: 24 January 2002, Revised: 21 February 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D43, D52. Correspondence to: Gaël GiraudWe thank Tim Van Zandt for his comments.