A Statistical Model to Investigate the Reproducibility Rate Based on Replication Experiments

The reproducibility crisis, that is, the fact that many scientific results are difficult to replicate, pointing to their unreliability or falsehood, is a hot topic in the recent scientific literature, and statistical methodologies, testing procedures and p‐values, in particular, are at the centre of the debate. Assessment of the extent of the problem–the reproducibility rate or the false discovery rate–and the role of contributing factors are still an open problem. Replication experiments, that is, systematic replications of existing results, may offer relevant information on these issues. We propose a statistical model to deal with such information, in particular to estimate the reproducibility rate and the effect of some study characteristics on its reliability. We analyse data from a recent replication experiment in psychology finding a reproducibility rate broadly coherent with other assessments from the same experiment. Our results also confirm the expected role of some contributing factor (unexpectedness of the result and room for bias) while they suggest that the similarity between original study and the replica is not so relevant, thus mitigating some criticism directed to replication experiments.     

The impact of traffic sign deficit on road traffic accidents in Nigeria

This study assesses the impact of traffic sign deficit on road traffic accidents in Nigeria. The participants were 720 commercial vehicle drivers. While simple random sampling was used to select 6 out of 137 federal highways, stratified random sampling was used to select six categories of commercial vehicle drivers. The study used qual-dominant mixed methods approach comprising key informant interviews; group interviews; field observation; policy appraisal and secondary literature on traffic signs. Result shows that the failure of government to provide and maintain traffic signs in order to guide road users through the numerous accident black spots on the highways is the major cause of road accidents in Nigeria. The study argues that provision and maintenance of traffic signs present opportunity to promoting safety on the highways and achieving the sustainable development goals.     

Some Potential Linkages for Input-Output Analysis with Flow-of-Funds

Three major, interrelated accounting statements, at the frontiers of quantitative economic analysis, are three interrelated systems, namely: (1) National income and product accounts (NIPA), (2) The input-output tableaux, (IO), and (3) flow-of- funds accounts (FF). The third-mentioned system is somewhat less available and used in only limited areas of macroeconomic analysis. This paper is mainly concerned with use of FF accounting systems. This system shows where financial resources originate, and where they go in support of real capital formation. In this respect, interest rates and other market-based financial rates are of key importance. While much macroeconomic analysis is based on the rates that fit the yield curve, showing the interest rate structure over various maturities of debt associated with a given degree of risk. In contrast, the FF accounts throw light on the whole spectrum of interest rates, across maturities and debt qualities. For example, in analysis of the real estate market and funding of capital formation there, it is important to have a full understanding of the course of mortgage rates of different maturities and qualities. In short, it is necessary to develop a full appreciation of supply and demand forces in the mortgage market, which often is not obviously related to movements of the operative rate for monetary policy, such as very short-term inter bank rates or call money rates. This paper attempts to provide material from the flow-of-funds accounts that would make it possible to analyze the movement of relevant mortgage rates or whatever other rates are needed to understand the financing of capital formation in real estate.     

试论我国证券投资基金稳定市场的功能

本文采用博弈分析方法 ,通过博弈模型 ,对虚假会计信息产生的条件、机制和影响因素等作了探讨。     

Demand‐side housing policy in Costa Rica: a response to the housing deficit

The purpose of this study was to establish what the housing needs of Costa Rica are and to assess what policies have been implemented to respond to their housing deficit. In order to answer these questions, a combined methodology consisting of primary and secondary data was used. Using open‐ended questions and a topic schedule, face‐to‐face interviews with Costa Rican housing authorities were conducted at the interviewee's work place in Costa Rica in May 2003. The most recent secondary data available in the country was used to compute the housing deficit and to study the effects of demographics on current housing needs. Sources of the secondary data were the Costa Rica Ministry of Housing and Human Settlements, and the National Institute of Statistics and Census. The Costa Rican government has made great progress in reforming the housing finance system in order to meet the housing demand of its citizens. In 2002, Costa Rica had a 75.6% home ownership rate. Yet, even in light of the housing system's current success, many social, economic and political barriers threaten to undermine its accomplishments and the peoples’ ability to obtain safe and affordable housing. The paper considers the strengths and weaknesses of the current housing finance system as well as the government strategies for addressing difficulties.     

防止利用关联方交易操纵利润的方法

目前,一些上市公司利用关联方交易操纵利润、粉饰会计报表,造成会计信息的严重失真,为此,规范关联交易定价政策、逐步减少现有可避免的关联交易、制止新的应避免的关联交易产生十分必要。     

虚开增值税专用发票开票者犯罪认定难题探析

虚开增值税专用发票的主体一般分为开票者、受票者和介绍者,其中以"开票者"的认定最为复杂.文章主要针对司法实践中本罪的主体之一开票者认定上存在的一些问题进行分析探讨.     

基于上市公司虚假财务报告治理的独立审计行为优化研究

独立审计人员的行为错位与虚假财务报告的产生存在一定的内在联系。从独立审计行为优化的视角研究虚假财务报告的治理,不仅是提升独立审计执业水平的客观要求,也为虚假财务报告的治理提供了一种全新的思路。通过对上市公司虚假财务报告治理的研究,确立了独立审计在中国上市公司虚假财务报告治理机制中的科学定位,构建了基于上市公司虚假财务报告治理的独立审计行为优化方案设计,提出了优化独立审计行为的对策实施体系。     

公司治理结构·会计信息系统·独立审计:结构与效率分析

公司治理结构、会计信息系统和独立审计是微观经济运行系统的三个基本组成单元。三者以委托代理关系为中心形成了功能互补、共生互动的经济运行系统 ,共同维持着受托责任机制运行中的公平与效率。通过对三者的经济关系结构进行理论描述 ,分析其内在关系结构的缺陷以及与虚假会计信息之间的关联性 ,并在此基础上提出共同预防虚假会计信息的治理措施     

上海市生态可持续发展评价研究

本文利用生态足迹法对上海市1985～2004年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行了研究，结果表明上海市入均生态足迹和生态承载力分别由1985年的1．9340hm^2、0．1582hm^2逐年增加至2004年的3．0459hm^2、0．5805hm^2，一而同期的入均生态赤字也由1．7958hm^2上升到2．6656hm^2。同时计算了万元GDP生态足迹，并预测了2010年的入均生态足迹和生态承载力。最后得出，上海市入口对自然资源的利用逐年增加，目前已超出了自然生态系统的生态承载力范围，现有的发展模式是不可持续的。