A Bayesian analysis of a variance decomposition for stock returns

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.     

How Issue Size, Risk, and Complexity are Influencing External Financing Costs: German IPOs Analyzed from an Economies of Scale Perspective

This paper is focused on the cost of raising capital in Germany. A cross-sectional analysis of flotation cost data for 117 IPOs over the years 1993–1998 is presented. We find average flotation costs to be 7.77 percent of gross proceeds, while underwriting fees average 5.01 percent. Our results extend the literature in two important directions. First, contrary to the conventional economies of scale view we find marginal spreads to be rather constant in gross proceeds and to be higher for more risky and more complex offerings. Fixed costs amount to 5 to 9 percent of underwriting fees. Second, by applying a principal component analysis we find issue size, an issuer risk factor, and an offering method complexity factor to have an economicaly meaningful impact on underwriting fees.     

休闲经济与自由本质

随着人们自己支配的时间和收入的增加,休闲将成为生活中的一个重要组成部分.而休闲经济作为日益火爆的经济现象也越来越受到人们的关注.分析和研究与此有关的种种问题,特别是与人的本质及生存条件的种种联系是本文的主旨.     

Initial Public Offerings: CFO Perceptions

We examine four issues pertaining to initial public offerings (IPOs) using a survey of 438 chief financial officers (CFOs). First, why do firms go public? Second, is CFO sentiment stationary across bear and bull markets? Third, what concerns CFOs about going public? Fourth, do CFO perceptions correlate with returns? Results support funding for growth and liquidity as the primary reasons for IPOs. CFO sentiment is generally stationary in pre‐ and post‐bubble years. Managers are concerned with the direct costs of going public, such as underwriting fees, as well as indirect costs. We find a negative relation between a focus on immediate growth and long‐term abnormal returns.     

论我国人力资本的现状及投资对策

本文从阐述知识经济时代人力资本对经济增长的重要性入手，结合我国人力资本的现状，分析其存在的问题与不足，进而提出相应的建设性投资建议，以充分发挥人力资本对经济增长的直接动力作用。     

新形势下如何加强与改进学生思想政治工作

新形势下,高校学生工作环境发生了巨大的变化,使学生工作面临新的挑战。新时期如何加强与改进高校学生思想政治工作已成为学校工作的当务之急。因此,研究加强与改进高校学生思想政治工作应当从分析学生工作面临的环境变化着手,更新教育观念,确立“以人为本”的思想观念,搞好校园文化建设,坚持与时俱进,开拓创新。     

Initial public offerings in the gaming industry: an empirical study

The fastest growing segment of the hospitality industry is gaming-related business. This industry has experienced record numbers of companies going public, and their stocks are considered favorable long-term investments. Research in the initial public offering (IPO) area suggests that investors acquiring stock at the initial offering price earn large returns. The purpose of this study was to determine if large returns are being experienced for IPOs in the gaming segment of the hospitality industry, and if these large returns were limited to investors who purchased the stock at the initial offer price. There were 14 gaming-related companies selected for the study. The conclusions supported research reporting that the highest returns from IPO investments are made when the stock is purchased at the initial offer price. This study concludes that returns based on the initial offer price were greater than the casino index and the IPO index. When the investor purchased the stock at the first day's closing price, however, returns compared to the two indices were surpassed only after holding the stock for 8 weeks.     

期转现是大宗商品期货交割的有效形式

期转现是当今世界商品期货交易中通行的一种大宗商品期货交割方式,是期货交易方式与现货交易方式最有效率的结合,是典型的非标准期货交割方式.本文着重论述了期转现的积极效应和实现条件.     

正确理解马克思劳动价值论的约束条件

文章从“问题域”、“概念”和“假设”三个层面分析了马克思劳动价值理论的约束条件,提出商品的价值与劳动力的价值的关系问题是马克思劳动价值论的深层结构,对于准确全面理解马克思劳动价值论具有指导意义。