State‐Dependent Forward Guidance and the Problem of Inconsistent Announcements

Forward guidance can be provided as an unconditional promise, i.e. commitment to a specific low policy rate. Alternatively, the promise may include an escape clause, i.e. a condition defining the state of the economy under which the central bank would not keep such a low rate and, instead, it would revert to setting policy under discretion. The escape clause can be expressed as a threshold in terms of a specific variable. The present paper shows that, when such a threshold is expressed in terms of an endogenous variable (e.g. output, inflation), there are cases where it becomes impossible for the central bank to act in a way that is consistent with its promise. Consistency imposes limits on the policy rate that can be set since reverting immediately to the optimal discretionary rate can be incompatible with exceeding the threshold.     

Threshold models for trended time series

This paper presents the theoretical development of a new threshold autoregressive model based on trended time series. The theoretical arguments underlying the model are outlined and a nonlinear economic model is used to derive the specification of the empirical econometric model. Estimation and testing issues are considered and analysed. Additionally we apply the model to the empirical investigation of U.S. GDP.This paper is the result of work carried out for the author's Ph.D. thesis. I would like to thank Hashem Pesaran for his help, encouragement and insights during the preparation of this paper. I also thank Gary Koop and Sean Holly for helpful comments. Financial assistance from the Economic and Social Research Council is gratefully acknowledged.     

Central Bank's interventions and the Fisher hypothesis: a threshold cointegration investigation

The long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, allowing for structural breaks and asymmetric mean reversion. From a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) test applied to the residuals of the cointegration relationship (while allowing for both a break in the mean of the long-run equation and a smooth regime-transition), there is strong evidence for non-linear mean reversion properties for the real interest rates of the US Treasury Bill market. This suggests asymmetric changes to inflation shocks in the Central Bank's reaction function. The existence of different regimes is consistent with some interpretations of the monetary policies run by the Fed, such as credibility and opportunism.     

Does too much government spending depress the economic development of transition economies? Evidences from dynamic panel threshold analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth.     

金融发展影响城乡收入差距的三大效应及检验

金融发展影响城乡收入差距主要通过三条途径,即金融发展的门槛效应、金融发展的降低贫困效应、金融发展的非均衡效应。本文利用中国和省级1978~2004年的相关数据进行实证检验,结果显示实证与理论假说相符。最后,提出了相关政策建议。     

城市流动人口与城市化最低经济门槛作用机制之探讨

通过对比中外城市化进程发现 :城市流动人口与城市化最低经济门槛作用机制对于进城的农村人口顺利城市化起着至关重要的作用。这一机制的中心规律是就业支柱产业工资与城市物价的均衡 ,其正常运转的充要条件是产业增加值结构与产业就业结构同步转换 ;就业支柱产业处于世界产业体系中上游 ;人口规模适中 ;有较健全的社会保障体系和免费义务教育。在此基础上 ,经过量化处理 ,建立了城市流动人口与城市化最低经济门槛作用机制的简单模型     

The price relationship between organic and non-organic vegetables in the U.S.: evidence from Nielsen scanner data

This study investigates price relationships between organic and conventional carrots, tomatoes, and lettuce in the U.S. utilizing Nielsen scanner data from 2006–2015. We employ a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM), threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR), and threshold cointegration test to test whether market integration exists between organic and conventional vegetables as well as the existence of asymmetric price transmission. The results find positive long-run relationships between organic and conventional prices of carrots and tomatoes and show the existence of asymmetric price transmission in price pairs of lettuce and tomatoes. Our findings suggest that the price relationship between organic and conventional vegetables varies by characteristics, such as shelf life, volatility in the price premium, and substitutability.     

货币政策效果非对称性及"阀值效应"分析

本文基于1992年1季度至2005年2季度数据，运用LM检验和t检验，研究我国货币政策的非对称性以及“阀值效应”，得出我国货币政策的“阀值”在-0．08-0．05之间。货币政策的非对称性和“阀值”的存在是由于微观信贷市场上的信贷配给导致的。“阀值”和“阀值效应”的存在反映了信贷配给的强弱程度，“阀值”可以用作度量信贷配给程度的指标，它间接地反映了信贷市场的完善程度。     

由我国个人所得税免征额调整引发的思考

<个人所得税法>从实施以来,我国已经对免征额进行了三次调整,最近两次调整的时间间隔很近,似乎个人所得税的问题只是一个免征额的变动问题.对居民来说,个人所得税问题的实质是税负的轻重和公平问题.免征额是对个人工作和生活费用的扣除,是一个动态的概念.历次免征额的调整,只是解决个人所得税问题的权宜之计,而要真正实现个人所得税调节个人收入、实现量能负担的税收公平原则,就必须对个人所得税进行全面改革.     

阀值效应:技术创新的低产业化分析--以中国医药技术产业化为例

技术创新遵循"阀值理论",即只有当研发资源集中到一定程度才能使研发成果成为稳定输出.我国企业规模小,销售收入少,销售收入中研发经费所占比重更低,少量的R&D经费被用在许多项目上,使得企业的新技术成果难以实现规模化的市场开发,难以实现产业化.本文的实证分析表明,R&D的投入存在着一定的"阀值效应",只有当流量、压力、能量都能够达到一定的"临界值",才能获得预期的市场效果.研发资源的极端分散化是目前我国高技术产业化发展的最大障碍,这从医药产业可以清晰地表现出来.欲使技术研发投入达到产业化要求,必须充分实现技术资源的集约化使用.