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1.
Julian A. Parra‐Polania 《The German Economic Review》2019,20(4):e1019-e1027
Forward guidance can be provided as an unconditional promise, i.e. commitment to a specific low policy rate. Alternatively, the promise may include an escape clause, i.e. a condition defining the state of the economy under which the central bank would not keep such a low rate and, instead, it would revert to setting policy under discretion. The escape clause can be expressed as a threshold in terms of a specific variable. The present paper shows that, when such a threshold is expressed in terms of an endogenous variable (e.g. output, inflation), there are cases where it becomes impossible for the central bank to act in a way that is consistent with its promise. Consistency imposes limits on the policy rate that can be set since reverting immediately to the optimal discretionary rate can be incompatible with exceeding the threshold. 相似文献
2.
This paper presents the theoretical development of a new threshold autoregressive model based on trended time series. The theoretical arguments underlying the model are outlined and a nonlinear economic model is used to derive the specification of the empirical econometric model. Estimation and testing issues are considered and analysed. Additionally we apply the model to the empirical investigation of U.S. GDP.This paper is the result of work carried out for the author's Ph.D. thesis. I would like to thank Hashem Pesaran for his help, encouragement and insights during the preparation of this paper. I also thank Gary Koop and Sean Holly for helpful comments. Financial assistance from the Economic and Social Research Council is gratefully acknowledged. 相似文献
3.
The long-run relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation is examined, allowing for structural breaks and asymmetric mean reversion. From a Threshold AutoRegressive (TAR) test applied to the residuals of the cointegration relationship (while allowing for both a break in the mean of the long-run equation and a smooth regime-transition), there is strong evidence for non-linear mean reversion properties for the real interest rates of the US Treasury Bill market. This suggests asymmetric changes to inflation shocks in the Central Bank's reaction function. The existence of different regimes is consistent with some interpretations of the monetary policies run by the Fed, such as credibility and opportunism. 相似文献
4.
This paper investigates the relationship between government size and economic growth and determines the optimal level of government spending to maximize economic growth. The paper applies a dynamic panel data analysis based upon a threshold model to test the threshold effect of government spending in 26 transition economies over the period spanning 1993–2016. According to the analysis results, government expenditures have a threshold effect on economic growth, and there is a non-linear relationship depicted as an Armey curve in these transition economies. The findings indicate that a government size above the threshold government spending level adversely affects economic growth, while a government size below the threshold level has a positive effect. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant relationship between the two variables above and below that optimal level, even if we divide the sample into developed and developing countries. Our findings suggest that governments in transition economies should consider optimal government size at around the estimated threshold level to support sustainable economic growth. 相似文献
5.
金融发展影响城乡收入差距主要通过三条途径,即金融发展的门槛效应、金融发展的降低贫困效应、金融发展的非均衡效应。本文利用中国和省级1978~2004年的相关数据进行实证检验,结果显示实证与理论假说相符。最后,提出了相关政策建议。 相似文献
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This study investigates price relationships between organic and conventional carrots, tomatoes, and lettuce in the U.S. utilizing Nielsen scanner data from 2006–2015. We employ a threshold vector error correction model (TVECM), threshold vector autoregressive model (TVAR), and threshold cointegration test to test whether market integration exists between organic and conventional vegetables as well as the existence of asymmetric price transmission. The results find positive long-run relationships between organic and conventional prices of carrots and tomatoes and show the existence of asymmetric price transmission in price pairs of lettuce and tomatoes. Our findings suggest that the price relationship between organic and conventional vegetables varies by characteristics, such as shelf life, volatility in the price premium, and substitutability. 相似文献
8.
货币政策效果非对称性及"阀值效应"分析 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
刘明 《上海金融学院学报》2006,64(1):29-34
本文基于1992年1季度至2005年2季度数据,运用LM检验和t检验,研究我国货币政策的非对称性以及“阀值效应”,得出我国货币政策的“阀值”在-0.08-0.05之间。货币政策的非对称性和“阀值”的存在是由于微观信贷市场上的信贷配给导致的。“阀值”和“阀值效应”的存在反映了信贷配给的强弱程度,“阀值”可以用作度量信贷配给程度的指标,它间接地反映了信贷市场的完善程度。 相似文献
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10.
阀值效应:技术创新的低产业化分析--以中国医药技术产业化为例 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
技术创新遵循"阀值理论",即只有当研发资源集中到一定程度才能使研发成果成为稳定输出.我国企业规模小,销售收入少,销售收入中研发经费所占比重更低,少量的R&D经费被用在许多项目上,使得企业的新技术成果难以实现规模化的市场开发,难以实现产业化.本文的实证分析表明,R&D的投入存在着一定的"阀值效应",只有当流量、压力、能量都能够达到一定的"临界值",才能获得预期的市场效果.研发资源的极端分散化是目前我国高技术产业化发展的最大障碍,这从医药产业可以清晰地表现出来.欲使技术研发投入达到产业化要求,必须充分实现技术资源的集约化使用. 相似文献