Testing Rival Theories of Budgetary Decision–making in the US States

This article tests three common budgetary decision–making theories in the US states. Pooled time series cross–section analysis is used from 1960 to 1996 to test the garbage can theory and incrementalism, and from 1989 to 1996 to test various theories of rational budgeting. The results demonstrate that there was some support for all three theories in terms of their impact on reducing state budget outputs. Rational budgeting reduces expenditures in aggregate, incrementalism has relatively low explanatory power below the aggregates, and garbage can budgeting is more prevalent in functional areas than for government as a whole. These findings imply that the future research agenda on budgetary decision–making theories should focus more on a system–wide approach, which takes into account many of the characteristics of all three rival models of decision–making, rather than exclusively focusing on each one singly.     

两合计划:从政府需要角度透视其职能转变

立足政府需要,从侧面对当前政府职能转变过程进行分析和探讨,希望以政府本身作为理性实体的运作为基础,对该问题进行解释。     

Relationship of Planning and Control Systems with Strategic Choices: A Closer Look

The study finds that relative to others, firms pursuing the Prospector-like strategy (high innovation) have lower financial results uncertainty, a more long-term orientation for decision making, and more decentralized control. As well, the tightness of budgetary control is found to be negatively correlated with financial results uncertainty. Thus, we are able to reproduce in our study the result that Prospector type firms have tighter budgetary control, which many have found puzzling previously, and point to the relation between strategy and financial results uncertainty as an explanation for the result.Based on a sample of large firms in Singapore, the study also finds the impact of the 1997–1998 Asian crisis is correlated with the intensity with which the Prospector-like strategy was pursued.     

Replacement Investment: Optimal Economic Life Under Uncertainty

Replacement investment is essentially a regenerative optimal stopping problem; that is, the key decision concerns when to terminate the life of existing plant – and hence when to start over again. This paper examines this optimisation problem within a continuous time framework and studies the qualitative and quantitative impact of uncertainty on the timing of new investment (and the criteria that should be used for terminating the life of existing plant).     

论理性消费视角下生态和谐社会的建构

传统的消费观念和消费心理在目前资源和环境日益恶化的奈件下，已经难以为继。如何调整消费心理。进行合理消费已成为当前社会需要解决的重大课题。     

政府在发展高等职业教育中的角色定位思考

高等职业教育是我国高等教育的有机组成部分,政府在发展高等职业教育培训中拥有无可争议的地位,但政府能否对自己的角色加以理性定位却事关高职教育的健康发展。依据中国的具体国情,本文提出政府在高职教育发展中应该扮演催化剂、支持者、激励者和调控者的理性角色。     

Are Housing Price Cycles Driven by Irrational Expectations?

This paper investigates the extent to which condominium apartment prices are set in an efficient asset market. Unlike previous work that focuses on the time-series properties of measures of excess returns, the analysis is framed in terms of the changes in observable house prices over time. More precisely, the paper develops and applies a test of the joint null hypothesis of rational expectations, perfect markets, and no risk premium in the Vancouver condominium apartment market. The empirical results provide significant evidence against the joint null hypothesis. On average, ex post house price changes move in a direction opposite to their rational expectation. This approach offers a methodological advantage over the standard efficiency literature and is shown to provide a more powerful test of market efficiency than conventional return regressions. Another contribution of the paper is to characterize the time-series properties of deviations of condominium prices from those predicted by the risk-neutral rational expectations model, using cointegration and random coefficients techniques. Deviations in house price changes from their (risk-neutral) rational expectations are time varying, stationary, and related to the stage of the real estate price cycle.     

Incentives for voluntary disclosure

Rule l0b-5 of the 1934 Securities and Exchange Act allows investors to sue firms for misrepresentation or omission. Since firms are principal–agent contracts between owners – contract designers – and privately informed managers, owners are the ultimate firms’ voluntary disclosure strategists. We analyze voluntary disclosure equilibrium in a game with two types of owners: expected liquidating dividends motivated (VMO) and expected price motivated (PMO). We find that Rule l0b-5: (i) does not deter misrepresentation and may suppress voluntary disclosure or, (ii) induces some firms to adopt a partial disclosure policy of disclosing only bad news or only good news.     

物流合理配送问题的多阶段建模优化求解方法

简述了现有货物配装问题在实际应用中的缺陷,并针对货物配送问题,提出了多阶段建模优化求解方法,并应用于实例中。实例证明该方法所求得的最优解更具合理性和实际意义。     

网络环境下物流企业实行零基预算管理模式研究

费用预算是物流企业成长管理的一项重要内容，利用网络技术为企业构筑的管理平台，编制切实可行的费用预算，对于约束和控制费用的发生，降低物流企业成本具有重要作用。