Operational risk quantified with spectral risk measures: a refined closed-form approximation

The quantification of operational risk has become an important issue as a result of the new capital charges required by the Basel Capital Accord (Basel II) to cover the potential losses of this type of risk. In this paper, we investigate second-order approximation of operational risk quantified with spectral risk measures (OpSRMs) within the theory of second-order regular variation (2RV) and second-order subexponentiality. The result shows that asymptotically two cases (the fast convergence case and the slow convergence) arise depending on the range of the second-order parameter. We also show that the second-order approximation under 2RV is asymptotically equivalent to the slow convergence case. A number of Monte Carlo simulations for a range of empirically relevant frequency and severity distributions are employed to illustrate the performance of our second-order results. The simulation results indicate that our second-order approximations tend to reduce the estimation errors to a great degree, especially for the fast convergence case, and are able to capture the sub-extremal behavior of OpSRMs better than the first-order approximation. Our asymptotic results have implications for the regulation of financial institutions, and may provide further insights into the measurement and management of operational risk.     

Intraday Returns and the Frequency of Trading at the Ask on the Sydney Futures Exchange: A Research Note

This article documents and provides explanations for intraday patterns in returns for the Share Price Index (SPI) futures contract traded on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Consistent with overseas futures markets research, a positive and significant overnight return is documented. Unlike overseas futures markets, we find little evidence of an end of day price rise. Our evidence suggests that overnight returns for the SPI contract are largely driven by the way returns are typically measured, which ignores the fact that there is a significantly greater frequency of sellers at the market close and buyers at the start of the day. These patterns are consistent with hedging behaviour by futures traders with long positions in the underlying stock.     

养老基金筹集模式的实证分析

当前的养老制度改革是关注的焦点。本文首先将从介绍现存的筹集模式入手,试图换个角度来思考在人口老龄化背景下的我国养老金基金制度,实证分析模式选择对于缴费率等的影响,并基于此,讨论未来改革的方向。     

Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

Land use externalities, open space preservation, and urban sprawl

Parcel data on residential land conversion are used to investigate how land use externalities influence the rate of development and modify policies designed to manage urban growth and preserve open space. Several “smart growth” policies are found to significantly influence land conversion, including a development clustering policy that concentrates development and generates preserved open space. In addition to directly affecting a parcel's hazard rate of conversion, this policy is found to affect neighboring parcels' conversion by generating a positive open space externality that hastens their development. The implication that the clustering policy could generate a more sprawled pattern of development is explored using spatial simulation.     

YAWL语言及其系统的初步研究

工作流和工作流管理系统的合理应用可大大提高办公自动化的程度,而现有的工作流系统在支持工作流基本模式上存在一定的缺陷。一种新出现的YAWL语言较好地支持了工作流现有的基本模式,文章就YAWL语言及其系统的执行方法进行了初步的研究。     

论现代流通方式

流通方式是指商品由生产领域进入消费领域所采用的方法和形式的总和，现代流通方式是适应现代生产和消费的要求及流通发展要求的各种流通方式所形成的体系。流通的发展主要通过流通方式的变革体现出来，并在近一个世纪里由传统的流通方式演化为现代流通方式。发展现代流通方式是从根本上改变我国流通产业发展滞后的状况、发挥流通产业对国民经济先导作用的重要措施。     

业主公约法律问题简论——一个比较法的观察

住宅小区内不同主体的权利之争对物权法提出了实务上和学理上的双重挑战。作为建筑物区分所有权人的自治规范,业主公约已经成为平衡诸主体权利的“宪法性”文件,从比较法的角度对其相关法律问题进行逐一梳理,将为更深入和更细致的研究提供一个稳固的基础。     

国外自主创新特征及其对我国的启示

在当代经济中,自主创新能力是企业生命力的重要标志,也是企业在全球性竞争中占据有利地位的重要保证.纵观世界各国经济的发展历程,处于领先地位的国家,总是伴随着技术的创新.可见,自主创新能力的高低,影响着一国整体实力的高低.通过论述分析国外自主创新的特征,为我国自主创新机制的完善提出建议对策.     

完善我国上市公司治理结构的路径选择

本考证了两种典型的公司治理模式的特征，效率和演变趋势，结合我国上市公司的股权结构分析了公司治理结构，并得出结论：现实的国情和西方公司治理的演变趋势决定了完善我国上市公司治理结构的路戏只能是首先完善公司内部治理结构，未来应朝着以内部治理的主、外部治理为辅的博采众长的混合模式的方向发展。