A Bayesian analysis of a variance decomposition for stock returns

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.     

中小企业生存理论及分析

中小企业在各国经济中起着越来越重要的作用,已成为扩大就业,增加收入,促进经济增长的重要手段。本文分析了国际上具有代表性的中小企业生存理论,从理论上论证了中小企业存在与发展的可能性与合理性,对于纠正长期以来形成的歧视中小企业的错误观念,促进中小企业的健康发展有着积极的意义。     

休闲经济与自由本质

随着人们自己支配的时间和收入的增加,休闲将成为生活中的一个重要组成部分.而休闲经济作为日益火爆的经济现象也越来越受到人们的关注.分析和研究与此有关的种种问题,特别是与人的本质及生存条件的种种联系是本文的主旨.     

Multinational Companies,Technology Spillovers and Plant Survival*

How does the presence of multinational companies affect plant survival in the host country? We postulate that multinational companies can impact positively on plant survival through technology spillovers. We examine the nature of the effect of multinationals using a Cox proportional hazard model, which we estimate using plant‐level data for Irish manufacturing industries. Our results show that the presence of multinationals has a life‐enhancing effect only on indigenous plants in high‐tech industries, suggesting the presence of technology spillovers. In contrast, multinationals compete with each other in low‐tech sectors in the host country.     

FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE LONG‐TERM SURVIVAL OF MICRO,SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES IN ETHIOPIA

There is an increasing recognition of the potential importance of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) for employment, income and poverty reduction in Ethiopia. Although the MSME sector contributes significantly to the national economy, the high failure rate among well established small businesses and enterprises is a matter of major concern. A random sample of 500 small businesses and enterprises selected from five major cities in Ethiopia were followed up for 6 years in order to assess the impact of influential factors that affect the long‐term survival and viability of small enterprises. Hazard ratios estimated from the Cox Proportional Hazards Model were used to quantify the impact of key predictors of survival. Businesses that ceased operation were characterised by inadequate finance (61%), low level of education (55%), poor managerial skills (54%), shortage of technical skills (49%), and inability to convert part of their profit to investment (46%). The study shows that participation in social capital and networking (iqqub schemes) was critically helpful for long‐term survival. Businesses that did not participate in iqqub schemes regularly were found to be 3.25 times more likely to fail in comparison with businesses that did. Results of the study have implications that could be used for developing policy initiatives that are aimed at fostering long‐term growth in small businesses and enterprises.     

论我国人力资本的现状及投资对策

本文从阐述知识经济时代人力资本对经济增长的重要性入手，结合我国人力资本的现状，分析其存在的问题与不足，进而提出相应的建设性投资建议，以充分发挥人力资本对经济增长的直接动力作用。     

新形势下如何加强与改进学生思想政治工作

新形势下,高校学生工作环境发生了巨大的变化,使学生工作面临新的挑战。新时期如何加强与改进高校学生思想政治工作已成为学校工作的当务之急。因此,研究加强与改进高校学生思想政治工作应当从分析学生工作面临的环境变化着手,更新教育观念,确立“以人为本”的思想观念,搞好校园文化建设,坚持与时俱进,开拓创新。     

期转现是大宗商品期货交割的有效形式

期转现是当今世界商品期货交易中通行的一种大宗商品期货交割方式,是期货交易方式与现货交易方式最有效率的结合,是典型的非标准期货交割方式.本文着重论述了期转现的积极效应和实现条件.     

正确理解马克思劳动价值论的约束条件

文章从“问题域”、“概念”和“假设”三个层面分析了马克思劳动价值理论的约束条件,提出商品的价值与劳动力的价值的关系问题是马克思劳动价值论的深层结构,对于准确全面理解马克思劳动价值论具有指导意义。     

论我国民营企业的核心权利及其确立的现实意义

民营企业享有生存权、产权、发展权和竞争权，四项权利构成民营企业权利体系的核心权利，承认并保护民营企业的核心权利具有极为重要的理论和实践意义。