Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.     

Greater patience and monetary expenditure: How shopping with companions influences purchase decisions

Shopping with companions plays a crucial role in daily consumer activities. However, only a few studies have explored the influence of this factor on consumers’ patience. We conducted four studies, including two field studies, to investigate the effects of shopping with companions (e.g., friends and peers) on purchase decisions. We found that consumers exerted greater effort when shopping with friends and peers by spending more money and being willing to wait longer for a product. This effect could be explained by three mediators: positive emotions, negative emotions, and perceived value, in which the hedonic and social value, unlike the utilitarian value, played essential mediating roles. This study elucidates the underlying psychological processes involved in purchase decisions shaped by companions. Retailers should encourage shopping with companions to increase sales and customer retention.     

The mechanism of credit risk contagion among internet P2P lending platforms based on a SEIR model with time-lag

The credit risk contagion of Internet peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platforms is an important part of Internet financial risk management and supervision. This study analyzes the contagion path of credit risk in Internet P2P lending. Based on complex network theory and the theory of infectious disease dynamics, the characteristics of Internet P2P lending development are combined to construct a SEIR model of credit risk transmission among Internet P2P lending platforms with time lag, and the robustness of the model is analyzed and proven. The influence of platform correlations, the susceptible immune rate, the platform elimination rate, contagion latency, the saturation coefficient, and the susceptibility input rate on credit risk contagion behavior among Internet P2P lending platforms is analyzed, using the equilibrium point and threshold value. The impact of each variable is analyzed by simulation. Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to prevent and control credit risk contagion among these platforms.     

A play-the-winner-type urn design with reduced variability

We propose a new adaptive allocation rule, the drop-the-loser, that randomizes subjects in the course of a trial comparing treatments with dichotomous outcomes. The rule tends to assign more patients to better treatments with the same limiting proportion as the randomized play-the-winner rule. The new design has significantly less variable allocation proportion than the randomized play-the-winner rule. Decrease in variability translates into a gain in statistical power. For some values of success probabilities the drop-the-loser rule has a double advantage over conventional equal allocation in that it has better power and assigns more subjects to the better treatment. Acknowledgments. I thank Stephen Durham, the associate editor, and the referees for their helpful suggestions.     

浅谈王佐良的翻译思想

文章回顾了王佐良的翻译历程，分析了他的诗歌翻译思想，指出他重翻译实践和技巧而轻理论的思想。     

朱生豪莎士比亚戏剧的译介思想和成就

文章通过大量的文献资料，从三个方面全面介绍了朱生豪的莎士比亚戏剧译介过程及其贡献：朱生豪是我国解读说不完、道不尽的莎士比亚的第一人；朱译莎剧质量之高“迄今仍无出其右者”；朱生豪是不屈不挠、立志填补中国文化空白的民族英雄。     

把握新生的特点加强工作的针对性

新生具有自豪感减退、心态失衡、适应环境的能力差、学习上的盲目性等特点.做好新生工作必须具体分析、因材施教,深入了解、勤于疏导,健全制度、规范管理.     

中国翻译理论的历史沿革

翻译活动作为一种文化交流手段，在中国有着2000多年的悠久历史，在宏观研究上有取之不尽的资源。本文主要概述了中国译论发展的几个重要时期，认为回顾历史对于21世纪中国译学的发展有着积极的作用。     

完善公司制企业治理结构的思考

在分析公司制企业治理结构现状及存在问题的基础上,提出了国有企业通过改革,建立股东、债权人、经营者、员工等利益相关者多方合作的企业治理结构的目标模式,通过对企业经营者的激励与约束,确保国有资产保值增值。     

创建"新知识城市" 促进新兴工业化的发展

新知识的成长和飞跃是国内新兴工业城市发展的主要动力。结合若干城市的经验 ,参考国外在高新技术发展中的历程 ,提出创建“新知识城市”的倡议及其对城市规划和建设的新要求