Bayesian MCMC Mapping of Quantitative Trait Loci in a Half-sib Design: a Graphical Model Perspective

Graphical models provide a powerful and flexible approach to the analysis of complex problems in genetics. While task-specific software may be extremely efficient for any particular analysis, it is often difficult to adapt to new computational challenges. By viewing these genetic applications in a more general framework, many problems can be handled by essentially the same software. This is advantageous in an area where fast methodological development is essential. Once a method has been fully developed and tested, problem-specific software may then be required. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of a graphical model approach to genetic analyses by taking a very simple and well-understood problem by way of example.     

基于Multi-agent的区域产业集群模块化升级研究

从决策主体有限理性角度 ,引入行为金融于区域产业发展集群升级管理体系 ,以Friedman和Savage之谜为释例 ,给出了其异常现象的行为金融解释。提出了行为金融范式下区域产业集群升级管理六要素 ,利用模块化思想构建了基于Multi-agent的区域产业集群升级管理模式 ,指出了各要素之间的优化机理 ,强调战略、组织、方法、信息、文化和过程的有机融合     

Simultaneous versus sequential information processing

Subjects update prior information simultaneously versus sequentially. The mean prediction is remarkably close to the correct Bayesian estimate with simultaneous information, but differs significantly conditional on whether good news precedes bad news or vice versa.     

论中国增长悖论的深层原因

要解决中国目前存在的“增长悖论”问题，必须解决更深层次的“激励机制”问题、“有效歧视”问题和“产业升级”问题。“激励机制”问题可以看作是对“结构调整论”的回应，不重视激励机制（特别是对官员的激励）的经济增长很有可能总是徘徊在调整阶段，丧失经济结构调整的有利时机。“有效歧视”问题可以看作是对“有效劳动需求论”的回应，不破除“有效歧视”就不可能形成真正有效的劳动供给。“产业升级”问题可以看作是对“技术进步论”的回应，一方面，没有产业结构升级的技术进步不是有效的技术进步，因为不能形成“扩散效应”和“拉动效应”；另一方面，达成共识的产业升级会造成“潮涌现象”，从而形成投资过热和产能过剩。     

东莞经济社会双转型的理性分析和政策路径

本文介绍了东莞经济社会双转型的主要内容,分析了东莞经济社会双转型的特点,指出了东莞经济社会双转型存在的难点问题,并提出了相应的对策,对于人们了解东莞有一定的帮助。     

Changing Perceptions and Changing Behavior in Customer Relationships

We formulate a theoretical model in which we postulate that if customers' behavior is perceived as not optimal, customers will adjust this behavior based on their current satisfaction and payment equity. Furthermore, customers will also include new experiences. In our empirical study we particularly investigate customer referrals and the amount of services purchased. Our results show positive effects of current satisfaction and payment equity on referrals, while also changes in satisfaction and payment equity affect customer referrals. With respect to the amount of services purchased, our estimation results reveal a positive significant effect of only changes in satisfaction.     

Booking horizon forecasting with dynamic updating: A case study of hotel reservation data

A highly accurate demand forecast is fundamental to the success of every revenue management model. As is often required in both practice and theory, we aim to forecast the accumulated booking curve, as well as the number of reservations expected for each day in the booking horizon. To reduce the dimensionality of this problem, we apply singular value decomposition to the historical booking profiles. The forecast of the remaining part of the booking horizon is dynamically adjusted to the earlier observations using the penalized least squares and historical proportion methods. Our proposed updating procedure considers the correlation and dynamics of bookings both within the booking horizon and between successive product instances. The approach is tested on real hotel reservation data and shows a significant improvement in forecast accuracy.     

Unobservable heterogeneity and rational learning: Pool-specific versus generic mortgage-backed security prices

Previous mortgage prepayment and valuation models assume that two mortgage pools with the same observable characteristics should behave indistinguishably. However, even pools with apparently identical characteristics often exhibit markedly different prepayment behavior. The sources of this heterogeneity may be unobservable, but we can infer information about a pool from its prepayment behavior over time. This article develops a methodology for using this information to calculate pool-specific mortgage-backed security prices. Knowledge of these prices is important both for portfolio valuation and for determining the cheapest pool to deliver when selling mortgagebacked securities. We find that unobservable heterogeneity between mortgage pools is statistically significant, and that pool-specific prices, calculated for a sample of outwardly identical mortgage pools between 1983 and 1989, may differ greatly from any single representative price.     

建筑工程技术专业教学资源库建设的效益分析

建筑工程技术专业教学资源库是为满足现代高职教育、企业培训、在职人员继续教育、行业新技术推广应用需要而建设的数字化专业网络平台。此项目建设必将促进建筑工程技术专业教学改革的进一步深化和人才培养质量显著提升,提高教师和建筑业从业人员素质,促使建筑工程技术专业主动适应教学组织形态变化,带动相关专业的发展。     

以创意城市建设推进城市转型更新的路径机理探析--以杭州市为例

城市转型更新是城市化进程新阶段面临的重要趋势和实践难题。建设创意城市已成为国内外许多城市保持和激发城市活力,实现城市转型更新与可持续发展的重要策略。杭州市结合自身实际,探索形成集创意战略、创意产业、创意空间、创意展会、创意管理、创意政策于一体的创意决策族,以实践方式来解析城市发展中“人与物”、“文化与产业”、“工业化与城市化”、“创意产业与创意城市”等多重矛盾关系,成为城市转型更新的成功案例。探析其路径与机理,对起步中的中国创意城市建设及城市转型更新,可提供诸多启示与对策借鉴作用。