MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

Trade networks and economic fluctuations in Asian countries

The paper presents a new methodology, based on tensor decomposition, to map dynamic trade networks and to assess its strength in forecasting economic fluctuations at different periods of time in Asia. Using the monthly merchandise import and export data across 33 Asian economies, together with the US, EU and UK, we detect the community structure of the evolving network and we identify clusters and central nodes inside each of them. Our findings show that data are well represented by two communities, in which People's Republic of China and Japan play the major role. We then analyze the synchronisation between GDP growth and trade. Furthermore we apply our model to the prediction of economic fluctuations. Our findings show that the model leads to an increase in predictive accuracy, as higher order interactions between countries are taken into account.     

Sources of Productivity Growth Dynamics: Is Japan Suffering From Baumol's Growth Disease?

This study examines the sources of labor productivity growth dynamics in Japan (1970–2010) and investigates the extent to which Japanese economic performance has been affected by Baumol's growth disease (BGD). We find that BGD silently undermines Japanese economic growth. However, the magnitude is miniscule, and consequently the aggregate labor productivity growth rate has not been decreasing monotonically. We also explore how BGD is arising and why it is small in the Japanese economy. BGD is weak because (1) the positive Baumol growth effect is also working in certain services sectors and (2) BGD is not a durable phenomenon: even if a sector begins to suffer from BGD, it is likely to recover quickly.     

The Great Recession,Austerity and Inequality: Lessons from Ireland

The advent of the Great Recession and the widespread adoption of fiscal austerity policies have heightened concern about inequality and its effects. We examine how the distribution of income in Ireland—a country which experienced one of the most severe economic contractions—has evolved over the years 2008 to 2013. Standard cross‐sectional analysis of the income distribution shows broad stability in the Gini coefficient and in decile shares, with one main exception: the share of the bottom decile fell sharply, with the largest fall in average incomes being for that group. Longitudinal analysis shows that the falls in the average income for the bottom decile were not due to decreasing income for those remaining in the bottom decile, but to falls in income from those initially located in higher deciles. The extent of redistribution through taxes and transfers increased strongly, as measured by the Reynolds‐Smolensky index, which rose from 0.20 before the onset of the crisis to 0.27 in 2013. Analysis indicates that about three‐quarters of this increased redistribution is due to automatic stabilisers and one‐quarter to discretionary policy changes.     

What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries

The model derived in this paper yields testable implications concerning the long‐run co‐movements of real exchange rates, relative labor productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with relatively higher output growth, trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated real exchange rates, with the main channel of transmission working through the relative price of nontraded goods. Exogenous terms‐of‐trade shocks are found to be the most important determinant of long‐run movements in the real exchange rate for Denmark and Norway, while demand shocks account for most of the long‐run variance in the real exchange rate for Finland and Sweden.     

Analysing Perceived Downside Risk: the Component Value‐at‐Risk Framework

Multinational companies face increasing risks arising from external risk factors, e.g. exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, which they have learned to hedge using derivatives. However, despite increasing disclosure requirements, a firm's net risk profile may not be transparent to shareholders. We develop the ‘Component Value‐at‐Risk (VaR)’ framework for companies to identify the multi‐dimensional downside risk profile as perceived by shareholders. This framework allows for decomposing downside risk into components that are attributable to each of the underlying risk factors. The firm can compare this perceived VaR, including its composition and dynamics, to an internal VaR based on net exposures as it is known to the company. Any differences may lead to surprises at times of earnings announcements and thus constitute a litigation threat to the firm. It may reduce this information asymmetry through targeted communication efforts.     

中国OFDI影响出口的质量效应与成本效应研究——基于异质性产品价格分解模型

基于异质性产品价格分解模型，运用联合国UN Comtrade 2003-2016年产品-目的国层面出口数据，考察中国OFDI影响本国出口的质量效应和成本效应。研究发现：中国OFDI显著提升了出口产品质量，并对出口产品成本产生降低作用。从目的国收入看，金融危机前，中国OFDI对出口质量的提升以及对出口产品成本的降低作用，主要通过对高收入和中高收入国家的投资实现；而金融危机后，则主要通过对中低收入国家的投资实现。从产品类型看，中国OFDI显著提高了差异性产品和中间产品的出口质量，并对两类产品的成本产生降低作用；但对同质性产品和最终产品，只对其出口产品成本存在显著降低作用，对出口质量的提升作用不显著。因此，以投资带动贸易仍然是推动中国外贸高质量发展的有效举措。     

基于二进小波分析的电力系统瞬态信号研究

在多分辨率分析的基础上,采用二进正交小波变换对电力系统暂态信号进行了分析.将信号分解成许多细节部分和平滑部分(分别是信号的高频部分和细节部分),通过分析信号在各个尺度下的细节部分,从而可以对暂态信号的时域和频域进行定位.实验结果证实了方法的有效性.     

中国地区间财力差异的度量及分解

首先采用以人口为权数的加权变异系数对地区间财力差异进行了度量.随后提出财力的初次分配和再分配的概念,检验了财力的初次分配中不同财政收入项目及财力的再分配中不同转移支付项目对财力不平等的贡献率.认为对财力差异起主要作用的是财力的初次分配即财政收入,起次要作用的是财力的再分配即中央转移支付,其中,将营业税划归地方税、税收返还等保持既得利益的转移支付是造成地区间财力差异的主要原因,并且随着经济的发展这将导致地区差距的进一步扩大.     

基于交易费用理论的企业边界纵向一体化研究

交易费用理论认为，企业的最优边界在市场费用等于企业协调成本那一点，交易费用中的企业规模实质上是企业的纵向规模即纵向边界，企业纵向规模的扩张主要通过纵向一体化来实现。虽然纵向一体化能够有效地削弱人的机会主义和有限理性，克服不确定性，降低交易成本，但它并不必然是企业发展的一种好办法，企业发展到一定阶段，纵向分拆策略是有效的。企业的纵向边界呈现扩张与收缩交互进行的局面。