Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels

The role of tourism is of vital economic importance, particularly for small countries with a privileged geographical location and favourable weather conditions. This paper examines the importance of tourism as a conditioning factor for higher regional growth in Portugal by employing the conditional convergence hypothesis of Barro and Sala-i-Martin, associated with the endogenous growth theory. The panel data estimation approach provides evidence of the positive impact of tourism (through the accommodation capacity) on the growth in per-capita income among the Portuguese regions, increasing the rate of convergence. Therefore, tourism can be considered as an alternative source for stimulating higher regional growth in Portugal, if the supply characteristics of this sector are improved.     

Dynamic Panel Data Evidence on the Trade-Income Relation

This paper revisits the relationship between a country’s openness and its per capita income. Building on Frankel and Romer, it argues that a dynamic econometric specification similar to the ones used in empirical growth studies better fits the theoretical literature and also resolves some otherwise unresolved inconsistencies. The preferred econometric method is Blundell and Bond’s system-GMM estimator, which allows dealing with measurement error, weak instruments, and time-invariant country-specific effects. The findings confirm the existence of a strong effect of trade on income but fail to find evidence for trade as an independent factor of divergence. JEL no. F43, O40     

弱化我国货币政策传导机制因素探讨

当前我国货币政策传导机制不顺畅，其主要原因是：需求不足制约了中央银行货币供给，经济实体经济结构与金融经济结构的不对称阻碍了货币政策传导的信贷渠道，传导机制的机构活力不足，金融市场发育不成熟使货币政策实施的有效空间减少，等等。因此，必须认真研究提高货币政策传导效率的途径，使中央银行货币政策意图顺利实现。     

On Measuring the Value of a Nonmarket Good Using Market Data

We use line integral theory to lay out in a more general theoretical framework the conditions under which it is possible to measure with market data the welfare effects of a change in a nonmarket good. We present in detail a numerical method of measuring the value of nonmarket goods using market data, under either weak neutrality or weak complementarity. Our numerical method is more flexible than the existing analytical method because it can be used with any well-behaved Marshallian demand function, and can be used even when the willig condition does not hold.     

Stability and Segregation in Group Formation

This paper presents a model of group formation based on the assumption that individuals prefer to associate with people similar to them. It is shown that, in general, if the number of groups that can be formed is bounded, then a stable partition of the society into groups may not exist. (A partition is defined as stable if none of the individuals would prefer be in a different group than the one he is in.) However, if individuals' characteristics are one-dimensional, then a stable partition always exists. We give sufficient conditions for stable partitions to be segregating (in the sense that, for example, low-characteristic individuals are in one group and high-characteristic ones are in another) and Pareto efficient. In addition, we propose a dynamic model of individual myopic behavior describing the evolution of group formation to an eventual stable, segregating, and Pareto efficient partition. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, H41.     

Generalized piecewise linear histograms

We extend the concept of piecewise linear histogram introduced recently by Beirlant, Berlinet and Györfi. The disadvantage of that histogram is that in many models it takes on negative values with probability close to 1. We show that for a wide set of models, the extended class of estimates contains a bona fide density with probability tending to 1 as the sample size n increases to infinity. The mean integrated absolute error in the extended class of estimators decreases with the same rate n^–2/5 as in the original narrower class.     

The adequacy of asymptotic approximations in the near-integrated autoregressive model with dependent errors

We consider the normalized least squares estimator of the parameter in a nearly integrated first-order autoregressive model with dependent errors. In a first step we consider its asymptotic distribution as well as asymptotic expansion up to order O_p(T⁻¹). We derive a limiting moment generating function which enables us to calculate various distributional quantities by numerical integration. A simulation study is performed to assess the adequacy of the asymptotic distribution when the errors are correlated. We focus our attention on two leading cases: MA(1) errors and AR(1) errors. The asymptotic approximations are shown to be inadequate as the MA root gets close to −1 and as the AR root approaches either −1 or 1. Our theoretical analysis helps to explain and understand the simulation results of Schwert (1989) and DeJong, Nankervis, Savin, and Whiteman (1992) concerning the size and power of Phillips and Perron's (1988) unit root test. A companion paper, Nabeya and Perron (1994), presents alternative asymptotic frameworks in the cases where the usual asymptotic distribution fails to provide an adequate approximation to the finite-sample distribution.     

弱势群体就业扶持政策研究

分析了当前我国弱势群体失业情况的严重性、特殊性及其原因 ,提出了构建我国弱势群体扶持政策的基本原则及标本兼治、着眼未来的就业扶持政策     

An improved empirical Bayes test for positive exponential families

We exhibit an empirical Bayes test δ^* _n for a decision problem using a linear error loss in a class of positive exponential families. This empirical Bayes test δ^* _n possesses the asymptotic optimality, and its associated regret converges to zero with rate n ⁻¹(ln n )⁶ This rate of convergence improves the previous results in the literature in the sense that a faster rate of convergence is achieved under much weaker conditions. Examples are presented to illustrate the performance of the empirical Bayes test δ^* _n