A MULTINOMIAL APPROXIMATION FOR AMERICAN OPTION PRICES IN LÉVY PROCESS MODELS

This paper gives a tree-based method for pricing American options in models where the stock price follows a general exponential Lévy process. A multinomial model for approximating the stock price process, which can be viewed as generalizing the binomial model of Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1979) for geometric Brownian motion, is developed. Under mild conditions, it is proved that the stock price process and the prices of American-type options on the stock, calculated from the multinomial model, converge to the corresponding prices under the continuous time Lévy process model. Explicit illustrations are given for the variance gamma model and the normal inverse Gaussian process when the option is an American put, but the procedure is applicable to a much wider class of derivatives including some path-dependent options. Our approach overcomes some practical difficulties that have previously been encountered when the Lévy process has infinite activity.     

THE JOINT ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE PROCESS FOR THE M/M/l QUEUE

We consider the M/M/1-queue and derive an explicit expression for the joint distribution of the number of arrivals and the number of departures in [0, t), given the number of customers initially present. The derivation is almost purely combinatorial, it avoids the use of generating functions, and immediately yields a simple probabilistic interpretation of the result.     

基于工作过程课程改革的探索与实践

课程教学模式与教学方法的改革是基于工作过程课程的教学改革能够顺利实施的重要保障。本文从课程教学模式和教学方法改革方面阐述了基于工作过程的高职模具设计与制造专业《机构设计与应用》学习领域课程的改革方法和内容,该课程将企业技术改造、维修和更新的工作任务转化为学习任务,有利于提高模具专业人才培养质量。     

以工作过程为导向的“国际商务结算”课程开发

＂国际商务结算＂以工作过程为导向,从实际工作岗位中提炼出工作任务,并以此为依据设置学习单元,在教学中采用＂资讯、决策、计划、实施、检查、评价＂六步法进行实施。本课程开发的目标是明确学生的岗位职责与学习目的,全面提高学生的职业素质与岗位适应能力。     

Option pricing in the presence of natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion term

This paper uses a probabilistic change-of-numeraire technique to compute closed-form prices of European options to exchange one asset against another when the relative price of the underlying assets follows a diffusion process with natural boundaries and a quadratic diffusion coefficient. The paper shows in particular how to interpret the option price formula in terms of exercise probabilities which are calculated under the martingale measures associated with two specific numeraire portfolios. An application to the pricing of bond options and certain interest rate derivatives illustrates the main results.     

Keynes at the periphery: Currency hierarchy and challenges for economic policy in emerging economies

While the post Keynesian literature offers a rather clear concept for growth-oriented policies, it is necessary to adapt them for peripheral emerging economies. We base our analysis of an appropriate Keynesian policy mix for these countries on the concept of currency hierarchy, where the currencies of peripheral emerging economies have a lower liquidity premium than the currencies of advanced economies. The international asymmetry related to the currency hierarchy, amplified by financial globalization, imposes major constraints to the adoption of Keynesian policies for these economies. Under these conditions, we argue that domestic economic policy coordination should lay a major focus on a low policy rate and, especially, a competitive exchange rate for obtaining, at least, a balanced current account, in order to prevent capital flows boom-bust-cycles with subsequent financial crises. We conclude that it is a rather ambitious and long-term goal to climb up the currency hierarchy, especially under the current condition of financial globalization.     

Reciprocity in Ranked Relationships: Does Social Structure Influence Social Reasoning?

Many economic and evolutionary theories have modeled cooperation as the evolutionary outcome of decisions made by autonomous, self-interested agents operating in a social vacuum. In this paper we consider the implications for cooperative interactions when prior social structures and corresponding social norms exist. In particular we investigate the influence of social rank/status on perceptions of fairness and tolerance of cheating. We review evidence from a series of experiments employing the Wason selection task (a test of conditional reasoning) and the ledger task (a decision making task) suggesting that people cued to adopt a perspective of high social rank are more tolerant of cheating and simultaneously believe that they have been more fairly treated (even when cheated) than people cued to adopt a perspective of low social rank. However, the evidence also suggests interesting cross-cultural differences in perceptions of fairness and tolerance of cheating in ranked relationships. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Types of cooperation partners as determinants of innovation failures

In this paper we analyse if specific R&D cooperation partners are related to an increase in the probability of innovation failures in terms discontinuing innovation projects. We distinguish between seven different R&D cooperation partner types, and we discriminate between product innovation failures and process innovation failures. Using German Community Innovation Survey data we find that, firstly, each type of R&D cooperation partner has a different effect on innovation failures. Secondly, we show that product innovation failures and process innovation failures are not affected in equal measure by the same type of R&D cooperation partner. Our results suggest that while R&D cooperation with public research institutes is significantly and negatively related to the probability to cancel a process innovation project, the coefficient is positive but insignificant for product innovation failures. Firms conducting partnerships with suppliers, however, run the risk of both product and process innovation failures. In turn, cooperation with competitors is positively correlated only to process innovation failures.     

基于结构突变理论的我国货币法流通速度的长期趋势

本文利用结构突变理论，对我国狭义、广义货币流通速度的数据生成过程进行了实证研究，结果表明：改革开放以来，我国狭义、广义货币流通速度服从于单位根过程，数据生成过程并未发生结构突变，因而基本保持了持续下降的“稳定态势”。     

关于发展我国企业债券市场的探讨

我国企业债券市场是资本市场最具发展潜力的部分 ,对于我国金融业的发展和完善会发挥日益重要的作用。文章在回顾企业债券市场的发展历程和分析企业债券市场的现状的基础上 ,找出企业债券市场存在的三大问题 ,相应的提出了企业债券发行的核准制 ,发展机构投资者 ,企业债券利率市场化的发展对策。