Analysis of the labour force composition on cruisers: The Danube through Central and Southeast Europe

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the knowledge of the river cruise labour structure. It presents the crew demographics and structure on-board the cruisers along Danube throughout Central and South Eastern Europe. Its goal is to answer the following questions: What are the gender and ages of the ships’ crews? Are they structured according to the country of origin? Is there interdependence between the employment rank of the crew members and the degree of the economic development of the country they come from?The data has been collected from the manifests of the cruise vessels which docked in Serbia over the 9 month research period during the 2007 cruise season. Firstly, data from the 2218 employees on-board the 54 cruisers was collected. Secondly, in-depth interviews with a small sample of cruisers officers, staff and crews (2007–2010) were conducted. The findings of the study have several theoretical and practical implications. Namely, previous related studies have been mainly focused on the ocean cruisers and neglect the rising importance of the river cruisers, especially for the European region. The study also discusses the possibilities for improvement of the human resources management and strategic development management of the European countries, which already have and those which have not yet positioned themselves on the river cruising market.Finally, key demographic employment data and characteristics (e.g. gender, average age, occupational groups, etc.) are important factors to consider when conducting a comprehensive labour force analysis, for they provide the organization a chance to build on its strengths and to minimize challenges and risks.     

On predictive distributions of public net liabilities

The analysis of the sustainability of public sector finances requires an accounting of all future revenues and all future spending that we would expect, under current tax laws and current entitlements. The classical calculation does not acknowledge the inherent uncertainty of the future economic and demographic developments, so the results can be misleading. Our aim is to produce a more robust summary of the sustainability of the public sector than the one currently available. By taking a forecasting point of view, our formulation takes into account the uncertainty of future productivity, stock and bond markets, and demography. Methodological complications that arise in the stochastic setting are discussed. Estimates of the relative roles of economics and demographics in the uncertainty of public net liabilities are presented.     

Corporate Demography and Empirical Industrial Organization: A Critical Appraisal

The emerging field of corporate demography views corporations and industries in a similar way to human or animal individuals and groups. In spite of a surprisingly large overlap of subject matter with economics, corporate demography is not well-known by, nor easily accessible to economists. An extremely useful recent book, The Demography of Corporations and Industries, by Glenn R. Carroll and Michael T. Hannan (2000) should change that. This review essay critically examines corporate demography from an economic viewpoint. The very different view of competition in corporate demography gets particular attention.     

人口年龄结构与住宅价格调控

在人12老龄化背景下．当人12总量和年龄结构发生质的变化时,将对住宅价格产生深远影响。本文在人口学研究基础上。有效结合住宅销售价格指数．通过逐步回归的方法获得购房适龄人口数量与住宅价格的关系模型,同时创新性地纳入莱宾斯坦人口发展五阶段理论,通过Logarithmic曲线模型进行量化分析。结论显示,在假定条件下．随着未来适龄购房人口的减少,国内住房价格将在2018年出现拐点并逐步回落,并在2030年前后降至2000年水平（剔除通胀因素）,之后将处于长期低迷状态。因此当前在遏制住房价格过快上涨的同时,应从更长远的视角构建调控思路。     

Increasing the relevance of mathematical approaches to demographic history

In this short paper we comment on recent efforts at formally modelling the interplay between demography and cultural evolution. We draw attention to the fact that, although these efforts are to be applauded, much work has already been done in this area, and that this work is being ignored. We build a case for tighter collaboration between different social science disciplines concerned with human behaviour and long-term demography, and argue that mathematical models must be paired with empirical data.     

Children's Opportunities in Germany – An Application Using Multidimensional Measures

Single parents and unmarried couples are increasingly replacing the traditional nuclear family. This paper investigates if the greater variety in living arrangements contributes to increased resource disparities among children in Germany. Children in single parent families are disadvantaged in at least three dimensions decisive for their later achievements: material standard of living, parental education, and parental childcare time. We compute multidimensional inequality and poverty indices using SOEP data from 1991 to 2012. We distinguish between parental and publicly provided childcare, which is an increasingly important in‐kind benefit in Germany. We find that both multidimensional inequality and poverty declined as expanded public childcare strongly reduces resource disparities among children.     

Anti-Malthus: Conflict and the evolution of societies

The Malthusian theory of evolution disregards a pervasive fact about human societies: they expand through conflict. When this is taken account of the long-run favors not a large population at the level of subsistence, nor yet institutions that maximize welfare or per capita output, but rather institutions that generate large amount of free resources and direct these towards state power. Free resources are the output available to society after deducting the payments necessary for subsistence and for the incentives needed to induce production, and the other claims to production such as transfer payments and resources absorbed by elites. We develop the evolutionary underpinnings of this model, and examine the implications for the evolution of societies in several applications. Since free resources are increasing both in per capita income and population, evolution will favor large rich societies. We will show how technological improvement can increase or decrease per capita output as well as increasing population.     

Does age structure forecast economic growth?

Increases in the proportion of the working age population can yield a “demographic dividend” that enhances the rate of economic growth. We estimate the parameters of an economic growth model using a cross section of countries over the period 1960 to 1980, and investigate whether the inclusion of age structure improves the model's forecasts for the period 1980 to 2000. We find that including the age structure improves the forecast, although there is evidence of parameter instability between periods with an unexplained growth slowdown in the second period. We use the model to generate growth forecasts for the period 2000 to 2020.     

Joan Robinson on Population Growth

Joan Robinson’s views on population growth have received scant attention. The aim of this article is to summarize and evaluate aspects of Robinson’s perspectives on population. The population question is considered in terms of four specific topics: the problem of growth, the labor market, effective demand and economic development. The article also interprets Robinson’s approach in light of the endogenous theory of economic growth in order to more explicitly elucidate Robinson’s own statements. It is concluded that an economic interpretation of population growth based on Robinson’s approach requires some specific adaptations if it is to be feasible. It is hoped that this line of approach is useful to scholars of the history of economic thought, economic development or theory of economic growth.     

Financial constraints and firm post-entry performance

Firms finance production by internally generated funds and external loans. The benefits of leverage, however, come with a cost. This cost is related to the uncertainty banks face about the firm's quality and output price. As time evolves banks learn about the firm and adjust the terms of the loan contract. Because of this, firms do not have equal access to credit: small, young firms face greater binding debt constraints than more mature firms with well-known prospects. The firm survival rate, as well as the firm rate of growth, are, therefore, important issues in analyzing firm post-entry performance.