LOGISTICS SALIENCE IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

The primary purpose of this paper was to empirically explore some of the reasons that logistics has become more important, or salient, in comparison to other functions within the firm. A survey of 296 managers across multiple industries in the U.S. found logistics becomes more important within the firm when the industry increases in uncertainty, when there is an emphasis on time‐based competition, when there is greater adoption of information technology, and when there is an emphasis on cross‐functional integration.     

人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响

本文从空间和时间两个角度全面考察了人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响。结果表明,人民币汇率的变化会显著影响我国的进出口。但是,这种影响程度在1994年以后明显地出现了下降趋势。同时,人民币汇率变化对我国进出口的调整存在明显的J曲线效应,其中进口变动大致滞后于汇率变动2个季度,而出口则滞后1个季度,滞后期限均短于西方发达国家。本文分析了其中的原因并提出了相关建议。     

略论明代武当山香税的征收与管理

明代的香税以泰山和武当山的数量和影响为最。武当山香税的征收始于明孝宗弘治六年（1493年），是明代最早征收香税之地，由湖广布政司和提督太监委派的官员即均州千户所千户和太和宫提点负责。打着维修庙宇的旗号而征收的香税，在嘉靖以后还用于赈济灾荒，抵宗藩、官兵俸粮之不足等事项，正是明代中后期国家政治腐败、财政危机、加派风行的必然结果。     

Effects of time processing orientation, agreement preferences and attitude towards foreign businessmen on negotiation adaptation

An experiment was conducted among Singaporean executives to determine how they adapt to a foreign partner depending on the partner's time processing orientation and agreement preferences, and their attitude towards businessmen from the country the foreign partner was from. Results showed that Singaporean executives tended to have monochronic time processing and preferred written to oral agreements. Further, when a foreign partner exhibited a monochronic processing orientation, these executives had greater liking for and were more willing to accept this trait than when he had a polychronic processing orientation. Liking for the foreign partner was also enhanced. In terms of agreement preferences, the executives showed greater liking for and willingness to accept the trait when the foreign partner had a written than an oral preference. Finally, willingness to accept the foreign partner as a business partner was enhanced once they knew where the foreign partner came from, regardless of their attitude towards businessmen from that country. Implications are discussed and directions for future research furnished.     

具有异质性非参数时间趋势的面板数据模型的估计

本文为一类具有异质性非参数时间趋势的面板数据模型提出了一种简单估计方法。基于局部多项式回归的思想,首先去除数据中的时间趋势成分,然后由最小二乘法来估计公共系数,同时得到时间趋势函数的非参数估计。在一些正则条件下,研究了这些估计量的渐近性质,即在时间维度T和横截面维度n同时趋向无穷时,建立了各个估计量的渐近相合性和渐近正态性。最后通过蒙特卡洛模拟,考查了这种估计方法的有限样本性质。     

The Persistence of Profits in the Long Run: A New Approach

We present a trend‐based alternative to the standard first‐order autoregression model in persistence of profits studies. This is motivated by reservations over the interpretation of the standard model, and rests on a different concept of dynamic competition. A nine‐category taxonomy of long‐run persistence stereotypes is developed. Structural time series estimates are presented for a sample of UK companies. We find the null of long run competitive equilibrium not rejected in nearly a third of cases, but non‐eroding persistence to be present in around 60%.     

Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates

We perform out-of-sample predictions on several dollar exchange rate returns by using time-delay embedding techniques and a local linear predictor. We compared our predictions with those by a mean value predictor. Some of our predictions of the exchange rate returns outperform the predictions of the same series by the mean value predictor. However, these improvements were not statistically significant. Another interesting result in this paper which was obtained by using a recently developed technique of nonlinear dynamics is that all exchange rate return series we tested have a very high embedding dimension. Additionally, evidence indicates that these series are likely generated by high dimensional systems with measurement noise or by high dimensional nonlinear stochastic systems, that is, nonlinear deterministic systems with dynamic noise.     

论项目投资评价中的时间风险值效应及其选择

基于现行现金流折现的项目投资评价的有效性取决于对项目现金流量预测的正确性,而项目现金流量具有预测发生的时间越遥远,现金流量不确定性的程度越大但又趋于相对稳定的特征.从这一特征出发,本文引入时间风险值进行折现调整这种系统可循的方法来解决在投资评价时难以预计的项目现金流量未来的不确定性问题,从而使不确定性条件下的项目投资评价更具有客观性.