丁尼生《悼念集》：科学与宗教的权衡

阿尔弗雷德·丁尼生的代表作《悼念集》,由131首短诗组成,写出了诗人在丧友之后的沉痛心情,真挚而感人,此诗记述了诗人的心路历程,并谈及当时困扰人心的许多问题：如上帝与自然、善与恶、生与死的关系等,而其核心主题——科学发展和宗教信仰之间的矛盾和权衡,反映了维多利亚时代的＂信仰危机＂。被誉为＂人民诗人＂的丁尼生,以诗歌的形式,为民众和自己寻找＂信或不信＂这方面的答案。     

金融创新产品风险的适应性监管机制探索——以MBS、CDO、CDS为例

金融创新产品风险的监管不到位是2007年美国次贷危机及2008年全球金融危机爆发的主要原因之一。在对MBS、CDO与CDS等创新产品风险及监管进行分析基础上创建的金融创新产品风险适应性监管机制框架包括风险的识别、风险的层级报告、风险的预警、风险的监管介入、风险的处理和金融危机与经济危机的预防六个部分。     

Impacts of the timing of the discovery of a subsequent event on the auditors’ approach to subsequent events

This study investigates the underlying causes affecting auditors’ approaches to subsequent events. As auditors are required to perform the majority of subsequent events procedures near the due date of the audit report, I examine whether auditors are less likely to make adjustments or disclosures regarding subsequent events that occur after the audit completion, but before issuing the audit report. Results indicate that auditors were less likely to adjust Type I events that occurred after audit completion when the risk was low, but not when the risk was high. This was not the case for Type II events, which only require disclosure.     

Belonging or estrangement—The European Refugee Crisis and its effects on immigrant identity

This study examines the impact of the 2015 European Refugee Crisis on the ethnic identity of resident migrants in Germany. To derive plausibly causal estimates, I exploit the quasi-experimental setting in Germany, by which refugees are allocated to different counties by state authorities without being able to choose their locations themselves. This study finds that higher shares of refugees in a county increased migrants’ attachment to their home countries, while not affecting their perceived belonging to Germany. Further analyses uncover strong heterogeneities with respect to country of origin and suggest that concerns about xenophobia, experiences of discrimination, and the consumption of foreign media contributed to these effects. Lastly, I find that changes in ethnic identity coincide with the political polarization of migrants.     

美国金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响

本文选取中国与G7国家双边贸易数据,构建动态面板数据模型,实证分析了美国金融危机对中国出口贸易的影响。结果表明,美国金融危机导致G7国家经济陷入衰退,失业率上升、金融市场动荡和国内需求萎缩,由此带来的贸易传播效应给中国出口贸易带来了较为严重的负面影响。从具体的传递渠道来看,G7国家实际GDP指数下降、股票价格指数下跌和人民币实际汇率的波动对中国出口贸易的负面影响较为显著;而G7国家失业率增加对中国出口贸易的影响较小且并不显著。     

The new goods margin in new markets

We analyze the role of the new goods margin in the Baltic countries’ exports and imports growth during the 1995–2008 period. Using the methodology developed in Kehoe and Ruhl (2013), we define the set of least-traded goods as those that account for the lowest 10% of total exports and imports in 1995, and then trace its growth in several markets including the Baltics’ main trade partners, the European Union and Russia. We find that, on average, by 2008 least-traded goods accounted for nearly 50% of total Baltic exports to their main trade partners. Moreover, we find that increases in the share of least-traded exports coincided with the timing of the trade liberalization reforms implemented by the Baltic countries. Least-traded imports also grew at robust rates, but their growth was lower than that of exports, accounting for slightly less than a quarter of total imports, that is, about half of the exports value. Moreover, we find that the shares of least-traded imports from the EU 15 and from Russia started diverging around the time the Baltic countries joined the EU, with the EU 15 share increasing and the Russian one declining. We also find that the Baltics’ share of least-traded exports outpaced that of other economies in Central and Eastern Europe. Finally, exports of new goods from the Baltic countries suffered noticeably during the Global Financial Crisis. After the crisis ended, the restart in new goods exports growth displayed mixed patterns.     

略论学校特殊会展事件的营销和管理策略——以UNL Vino为例

UNL Vino是一个校企合作，运行了33年的美国最大的单日品酒筹款会。准确的项目选择，有效的宣传推广策略，良好项目收益渠道及成熟的现场管理使它成为学校事件管理的成功范倒。