Illusory Price Increases after the Euro Changeover in Germany: An Expectancy-Consistent Bias

The aim of the present report is to review research demonstrating the role played by expectations for observed illusory price increases after the euro introduction in Germany. In laboratory experiments when participants are asked to estimate price changes in a restaurant following the euro introduction, the price estimates are found to be biased in the direction of the expectation of rising prices. The research also examines the extent to which a similar judgment bias is evident in other areas and how interventions counteract the bias. A further focus of the research is on the underlying process. In this respect the results show that the bias is based on a selective outcome correction process not previously described. Theoretical implications and practical implications for consumer policy issues are highlighted.

Mortality Among the Elderly in Sweden 1988–1997

By replacing the exponential growth in a Makeham function with a straight line at very high ages, graduated mortality rates gives an acceptable adherence to observed data.     

Examining a hybrid model for e-satisfaction and e-loyalty to e-ticketing on airline websites

In the air transportation industry, web-based marketing has already been widely applied to service frequent customers as well as to attract new ones. The importance of attracting new customers and keeping existing ones loyal to e-ticketing on airline websites is crucial. Accordingly, this study proposes an integrated model for evaluating the effectiveness of airlines' websites from a customer point of view. This model is based on the three perspectives of the marketing mix 4Ps, E-SERVQUAL and Expectancy Disconfirmation Theory. E-marketing and E-SERVQUAL features are divided into three dimensions, specifically information, system and service disconfirmations. The methodology was applied based on Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and was administered to online customers who carry out e-ticketing via an airline website. The results show that customer disconfirmations have a positive significant impact on overall customer e-satisfaction. The significance of this relationship was more considerable in the service dimension of e-marketing, as well as the system dimensions of E-SERVQUAL and e-marketing. Moreover, overall e-satisfaction was found to mediate the relationship between customer disconfirmations and consumer e-loyalty.     

预期寿命、生育率变动与基本养老保险统筹账户调整

在构建三期世代交叠模型的基础上,通过选取相关制度指标来模拟分析在未来预期寿命和生育率变动下,基本养老保险统筹账户如何基于参数调整来维持收支平衡。研究结果表明：（1）我国居民预期寿命增长过快,统筹账户收支平衡受预期寿命变化影响较大;（2）在现阶段的预期寿命和生育率条件下,统筹账户能实现自身收支平衡,而且可在短期内通过阶段性降低缴费率来促进制度长远发展;（3）在长期内需通过提高缴费率或降低养老金替代率来保证统筹账户收支平衡,预期寿命为87.828岁且总和生育率为1.79作为参数调整临界点;（4）以现有制度设计为基准,参数调整临界点之前保证35%的基础养老金平均替代率不降,临界点之后保证20%的缴费率不升可以最大程度促进经济和社会发展。     

基于期望差异模型的RBD顾客满意度研究--以广州市北京路步行商业区为例

北京路步行商业区是广州城市游憩体系中重要的组成部分。本文运用期望差异模型对北京路步行商业区的顾客满意度进行了研究。研究发现，总体上顾客对北京路步行街的感知实绩低于期望．对北京路购物功能的满意度较高，娱乐休闲满意度稍逊。在实证研究的基础上，指出了期望差异模型的不足．并提出了新的期望差异概念模型。新的概念模型显示，服务实绩对于顾客的满意度具有决定作用。     

收入不平等对中国人口健康影响的实证分析

采用中国2000年省际截面数据,从实证角度研究收入不平等对地区人口健康差异产生的影响,以各地区城乡居民收入之比作为收入不平等的测度变量,以各地区平均预期寿命作为人口健康水平的测度变量,研究结果表明收入不平等对于中国人口健康状况产生了负面影响;在此基础上就收入不平等对中国人口健康产生影响的传导机制进行探讨并提出了相应的政策建议。     

An expectancy theory model for hotel employee motivation

The purpose of this study is to apply expectancy theory to employee motivation in the hotel setting and confirm the validity of expectancy theory. The proposed expectancy theory model for motivation was tested using data from 289 hotel employees. The results show that a modified expectancy theory with five components (expectancy, extrinsic instrumentality, intrinsic instrumentality, extrinsic valence, and intrinsic valence) best explains the process of motivating hotel employees. This study also indicates that intrinsic motivation factors are more influential than extrinsic factors for hotel employees, suggesting that hotel managers need to focus more on intrinsic factors to better motivate employees.     

Statistical Issues Arising in Disparate Impact Cases and the Use of the Expectancy Curve in Assessing the Validity of Pre-Employment Tests

Disparate impact cases concern the potential adverse effect seemingly neutral employment practices, such as passing a pre-employment test or possessing a fixed level of education, have on minority applicants. Their purpose is to eliminate discrimination by subterfuge, i.e., imposing a requirement that eliminates many minority individuals who could do the job but who do not meet the requirement. When a significantly higher fraction of applicants from minority groups fail the requirement compared to majority applicants, the requirement needs to be shown to be job-related. Statistical techniques used at the various stages of a disparate impact claim are described. Properties of the expectancy curve, which describes the utility of a pre-employment test and helps in defining a band of scores defining "equivalently skilled" applicants are discussed.     

火炮身管寿命预测技术发展研究

火炮身管寿命问题受到了从事火炮研究、设计、生产和使用人员的高度关注。通过概述火炮身管寿命的定义及其预测技术的发展历程,基于火炮身管寿命预测技术已经取得的成果,提出了对大口径火炮身管寿命实施实时动态预测的方法,并对该方法进行了初步的探讨,确定了实现该方法的关键技术所在。     

Good but not so great: The impact of chain affiliation on guest satisfaction and guest satisfaction extremeness

Chain affiliation is widespread in the hotel industry. It has also attracted a lot of academic attention. While a large number of studies have examined whether affiliated hotels outperform independent hotels in terms of occupancy, ADR and RevPAR, research on the chain affiliation - guest satisfaction relationship is scarce. In this study, we explore the impact of chain affiliation on guest satisfaction and guest satisfaction extremeness, which is defined as the extent to which a hotel’s guest satisfaction deviates from the industry average. We also examine whether the relationships between chain affiliation, guest satisfaction and guest satisfaction extremeness are contingent on market segments. Using a large sample of 35.000 hotels, we find evidence that chain affiliation increases guest satisfaction, but decreases guest satisfaction extremeness. In addition, the positive chain affiliation - guest satisfaction relationship and the negative chain affiliation - guest satisfaction relationship are stronger in higher quality market segments. Taken together, our findings suggest that chain affiliation is a double-edged sword for hotels, particularly in higher quality market segments.