Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article

Estimates of central bank intervention losses or profits vary widely; some estimates find substantial losses, others profits. In most cases, estimated profits are not risk-adjusted, and risk adjustment can have large effects. Furthermore, profit estimates involve variables integrated of order one, and because of this test-statistics may have nonstandard distributions; few studies take this into account. Estimates of risk-adjusted profits for the US Fed and the Swedish Riksbank, with allowances for possible nonstandard distributions, suggest that neither made losses and might have made significant profits.     

Multinational enterprises’ risk mitigation strategies in emerging markets: A political coalition perspective

This paper contributes to the IB literature by investigating MNEs’ risk mitigation strategies in emerging markets. Drawing on institutional perspectives and March’s theoretical concept of forming a ‘political coalition’, we propose that risk mitigation cannot be limited to passive compliance and/or demonstrating good corporate behavior, but should extend to collective efforts by building a political coalition and working with key stakeholders to manage potential risk and obtain favorable outcomes in complex institutional environments. In considering MNEs in contemporary China and India, we offer different types of risk mitigation strategies under various institutional contexts and a framework for future research.     

Official FX interventions through derivatives

We use high-frequency data to study the effects of currency swap auctions carried out by the Brazilian Central Bank on the USDBRL exchange rate. We find that official currency swap auctions impact the exchange rate in a significant way, even though they do not directly alter the supply of foreign currency in the market. We show that during our sample period auctions of contracts in which the Central Bank took a short position in USD had larger effects than those in which the Central Bank took a long position. The supply of currency swaps to the market provides an alternative for traders that demand foreign currency for financial (speculative or hedging) rather than transactional reasons, and thus affects the demand for foreign currency and its price. This mechanism is likely to be particularly relevant when forecasters extrapolate exchange rate trends at short-term horizons.     

Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese lessons

This paper extends the analysis of Bernanke et al. (2004) to show that the official Japanese purchases of foreign exchange in 2003–04 seem to have lowered long-term interest rates not only in the United States, but in a wide range of countries, including Japan. It seems that this decline was triggered by the investment of the intervention proceeds in US bonds and that global portfolio rebalancing spread the resulting decline in US dollar yields to bond markets in other currencies, thus easing global monetary conditions. We also show that the global portfolio balance effect is detectable in the response of yields to large Japanese intervention in data before and after 2003/04, though the effect is weaker. While our findings contribute to a growing body of work that points to common responses across bond markets to official portfolio shifts in the form of large-scale bond purchases (“quantitative easing”), our analysis has the advantage of focusing on a pure portfolio shock.     

后危机时代政府干预与银行信贷—基于国有经济视角

本文利用我国2007-2016年的省级面板数据,对后危机时代政府干预与银行信贷以 及不良贷款率进行了实证研究。本文发现：地方政府干预显著带来地区信贷增长以及不良贷款 率下降;地方政府通过对国有经济进行干预,可以显著带来地区信贷增长,但对降低地区不良 贷款率不显著。进一步研究发现：东部地区政府干预有助于提高地区信贷增长并降低不良贷款 率;西部地区政府通过干预国有经济能带来地区信贷增长;无论是东部、中部还是西部,政府 通过对国有经济的干预降低地区不良贷款率均不会产生太大效果。     

论中国政府干预股票市场的法律体系构建

当下,我国政府在干预股票市场的过程中起到积极作用的同时,其不可避免的缺陷也凸现出来,如何在法律的框架下规制政府行为,克服其缺陷将对我国股票市场平稳健康的发展起到举足轻重的作用.本文通过在宏观层面对政府权力干预股票市场的宏现法律体系的设计,在微观层面完善信息披露制度和操作层面制度实施保障机制的构建,以避免中国政府干预股票市场的缺陷,以保障股票市场高效、安全、健康和稳定地发展.     

零售企业扩张实践质疑威廉姆森命题

"复制和选择性干预不可能",是威廉姆森关于企业规模边界的一个颇具权威性的命题,但是本文认为,这个命题已遭到零售企业扩张实践的质疑,沃尔玛、家乐福等零售企业的扩张恰恰是由"复制和选择性干预"所支撑的.本文从零售企业"类似性活动"业务属性和"订购性生产"经营特征分析切入,对零售企业扩张中"复制和选择性干预"成为可能的深层原因进行了探讨.最后,文章认为,威廉姆森命题的遭遇与经济学的某种局限有关,这种局限的直接表现是经济学一直都将企业默认为生产企业,忽略流通企业的特殊属性,"工商合一"、"以工代商".文章对这种表象背后的原因也作了一定的分析.     

Understanding the impact of COVID-19 intervention policies on the hospitality labor market

Using new high-frequency data that covers a representative sample of small businesses in the United States, this study investigates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting state policies on the hospitality industry. First, business closure policies are associated with a 20–30% reduction of non-salaried workers in the food/drink and leisure/entertainment sectors during March-April of 2020. Second, business reopening policies play a statistically significant role in slowly reviving the labor market. Third, considerable differences exist in the impact of policies on the labor market by state. Fourth, the rise of new COVID-19 cases on a daily basis is associated with the continued deterioration of the labor market. Lastly, managerial, practical, and economic implications are described.     

中国东部三大都市圈经济发展对比研究

改革开放30年来,东部地区的长三角、珠三角和京津冀三大都市圈在中国经济发展中具有举足轻重的地位,已成为中国经济发展的典型区域。本文分析了中国东部三大都市圈经济发展的共同力量,即沿海的地理优势和中国经济改革的优惠政策。进而运用数据对比,挖掘东部三大都市圈经济发展中差异化的主导力量,京津冀都市圈是政府干预主导下的经济发展;长三角都市圈是市场力量主导下的经济发展;珠三角都市圈是由政策引导和外向型经济等外在力量作用下政府干预和市场力量共同作用的经济发展。     

析我国外汇占款对冲策略

根据我国的经济运行情况,分析固定汇率、资本流动与货币政策自主的“三元困境”在我国的具体表现。指出在经常项目和资本项目持续顺差的情况下,货币政策与外汇储备增长的矛盾。说明为控制流通中的货币而被动进行的单向对冲操作的成本昂贵,并且是以牺牲货币政策自主为代价的,还易积蕴金融风险,酿致恶性后果。证实了外汇占款对冲策略的不可持久性,为此必须改革现行的固定汇率制度,并放松资本管制。