INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

Machine learning for financial transaction classification across companies using character-level word embeddings of text fields

An important initial step in accounting is mapping financial transfers to the corresponding accounts. We devised machine-learning-based systems that automate this process. They use word embeddings with character-level features to process transaction texts. When considering 473 companies independently, our approach achieved an average top-1 accuracy of 80.50%, outperforming baselines that exclude the transaction texts or rely on a lexical bag-of-words text representation. We extended the approach to generalizes across companies and even across different corporate sectors. After standardization of the account structures and careful feature engineering, a single classifier trained on 44 companies from 28 sectors achieved a test accuracy of more than 80%. When trained on 43 companies and tested on the remaining one, the system achieved an average performance of 64.62%. This rate increased to nearly 70% when considering only the largest sector.     

试论生态林业系统的时空观

生态林业系统具有时间、空间两个序列的开发前景。长周期,大跨度的生态林业生产可以分解为复合的短周期方式,使生态意识与经济效益有机结合。空间组合的多层次立体开发有效地利用了光、热、水、土资源,并获得最大生物量;地域组合着眼宏观,注重研究大型骨干及网络性生态工程问题。     

信息不对称对林产品经营影响的分析

探讨了信息不对称现象对林产品经营的影响问题,阐述了林产品市场信息不对称的内涵、基本表征、成因及其对林产品经营的具体影响,提出了林产品经营的新对策:一是加强林产品市场调研,充分掌握市场信息;二是注重林产品信息的传播与扩散;三是讲求诚信经营,努力培养商誉;四是积极实施林产品的标准化经营;五是大力推行林产品的认证经营。     

林产品市场模型文献综述

关于林产品市场的数量研究开始于上个世纪50年代。早期的研究主要以时间序列数据为主。近几十年来,由于经济理论在林产品市场模型中的应用,模型估计方法的改进,以及详细数据的获得,林产品市场模型越来越完善。文章对近几十年来出现的主要建模方法,及其应用作一回顾,并对这些方法的优缺点作简单的比较。     

秦岭北麓森林公园生态旅游绿色营销策略研究

秦岭北麓是陕西省的生态安全屏障和水资源涵养地。当地森林公园开发过程中，由于行政管理者与开发权利主体错位以及盲目开发旅游项目等，导致生态环境破坏严重。秦岭北麓森林公园应采用绿色营销策略，包括采用绿色文化策略、绿色价格策略以及绿色产品等策略，开发生态旅游项目，形成当地经济效益、生态环境利益和旅游者需求三者的统一，实现当地旅游业的可持续发展。     

中国外汇储备快速增长的原因探析——基于人口结构的视角

近年来,中国外汇储备快速增长成为我国理论界和实务界关注的热点问题.通过理论推演和实证分析得出结论:中国外汇储备快速增长与独特人口年龄结构密切相关.当前,中国不能陶醉在外汇储备世界第一的光环中,要清醒地看到其中的隐忧,采取诸如转变经济增长方式、增加人力资本投入、强化外汇储备管理等措施来加以应对.     

A note on the ecological-economic modelling of marine reserves in fisheries

This paper gives an overview of the bioeconomic modelling of marine reserves, and illustrates how economists have responded to the modelling results found in the ecological literature. The economic analysis is shown to be far more pessimistic with regards to the potential of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool, than what one finds in the purely ecological analysis, the reason being the latter's neglect of issues such as discounting and economic incentive behaviour. However, economic analysis, despite some of it being relatively advanced with regards to spatiality, is still simplistic with regards to for instance ecosystem and habitat content. A simple expansion of the existing bioeconomic models with regards to positive habitat effects of area closures is presented and analysed, showing room for improved results from marine reserve implementation as compared to the existing analysis.     

退耕还林（草）生态补偿实施现状与问题分析——以甘肃省定西市安定区为例

为了建立合理的国家生态补偿机制，了解现阶段生态补偿中存在的问题，我们运用PRA（Participatory rule appraisal）即参与性农村评估和传统的问卷调查相结合的方法，通过对研究区内生态建设补偿措施实施过程中的现状研究、问题分析，发现本区在实施退耕还林（草）生态补偿中的主要问题是仍然没有有效解决生态补偿的三个基本问题：补偿主体、补偿强度、补偿资金来源。生态补偿处于初级阶段，没有形成制度化、法律化，有必要在政策、法律层面建立比较完善的生态补偿机制。     

商业银行流动性过剩问题的再认识

最近,学术界对商业银行流动性问题议论颇多,议论的焦点是银行的流动性过剩及由此引发的种种后果.本文基于既往研究中值得深思的四个问题,从商业银行超额储备构成出发对流动性过剩的内涵、判断标准及影响因素进行界定,以商业银行保持流动性成因的微观视角管窥我国商业银行流动性过剩问题.在此基础上,本文认为商业银行流动性过剩问题的解决与资本市场的发展并无必然的直接联系,并针对流动性过剩问题的不同形成原因提出了相应的几点看法.